Mechanisms producing different precipitation patterns over north‐eastern Italy: insights from HyMeX‐SOP1 and previous events

During the first HyMeX Special Observation Period (SOP1) field campaign, the target site of north‐eastern Italy (NEI) experienced a large amount of precipitation, locally exceeding the climatological values and distributed among several heavy‐rainfall episodes. In particular, two events that occurred during the last period of the campaign drew our attention. These events had common large‐scale patterns and a similar mesoscale setting, characterised by southerly low‐level flow interacting with the Alpine orography, but the precipitation distribution was very different. During Intensive Observing Period IOP18 (31 October–1 November 2012), convective systems were responsible for intense rainfall mainly located over a flat area of the eastern Po Valley, well upstream of the orography. Conversely, during IOP19 (4/5 November 2012), heavy precipitation affected only the Alpine area. In addition to IOP18 and IOP19, the present study analyses other heavy‐precipitation episodes that display similar characteristics and which occurred over NEI during the autumn of recent years. A high‐resolution (2 km grid spacing) non‐hydrostatic NWP model and available observations are used for this purpose. The two different observed precipitation patterns are explained in terms of interaction between the impinging flow and the Alps. Depending on the thermodynamic profile, convection can be triggered when the impinging flow is forced to rise over a pre‐existing cold‐air layer at the base of the orography. In this situation a persistent blocked‐flow condition and upstream convergence are responsible for heavy rain localized over the plain. Conversely, if convection does not develop, flow‐over conditions are established and heavy rain affects the Alps. Numerical parameters proposed in the literature are used to support the analysis. Finally, the role of evaporative cooling beneath the convective systems is evaluated. It turns out that the stationarity of the systems upstream of the Alps is mainly attributable to persistent blocked‐flow conditions, while convective outflow slightly modifies the location of precipitation

A recursive coupling-decoupling approach to improve experimental frequency based substructuring results

Substructure decoupling techniques allow identifying the dynamic behavior of a substructure starting from the dynamic behavior or the assembled system and a residual subsystem. Standard approaches rely on the knowledge of all FRFs at the interface DOFs between the two substructures. However, as these typically include also rotational DOFs which are extremely difficult and most of the time impossible to measure, several techniques have been investigated to overcome these limitations. A very attractive solution consists in defining mixed or pseudo interfaces, that allow to substitute unmeasurable coupling DOFs with internal DOFs on the residual substructure. Additionally, smoothing/denoising techniques have been proposed to reduce the detrimental effect of FRF noise and inconsistencies on the decoupling results. Starting from these results, some recent analysis on the possibility of combining coupling and decoupling FBS to validate the results and compensate for inconsistencies will be presented in this paper. The proposed method relies on errors introduced in the substructuring process when assuming that the interface behaves rigidly, while it is generally known that this assumption is seldom verified. Consequently, a recursive coupling-decoupling approach will be used to improve the estimation of the dynamic response of either the residual structure (for decoupling) or the assembly (for coupling). The method, validated on analytical data, will be here analyzed on a numerical example inspired by an experimental campaign used to validate the finite element models and on which standard substructuring techniques showed some limitations. The results discussed in this paper will be then used as guidelines to apply the proposed methodologies on experimental data in the future

How observations from automatic hail sensors in Switzerland shed light on local hailfall duration and compare with hailpad measurements

Measuring the properties of hailstorms is a difficult task due to the rarity and mainly small spatial extent of the events. Especially, hail observations from ground-based time-recording instruments are scarce. We present the first study of extended field observations made by a network of 80 automatic hail sensors from Switzerland. The main benefits of the sensors are the live recording of the hailstone kinetic energy and the precise timing of the impacts. Its potential limitations include a diameter-dependent dead time, which results in less than 5 % of missed impacts, and the possible recording of impacts that are not due to hail, which can be filtered using a radar reflectivity filter. We assess the robustness of the sensors' measurements by doing a statistical comparison of the sensor observations with hailpad observations, and we show that, despite their different measurement approaches, both devices measure the same hail size distributions. We then use the timing information to measure the local duration of hail events, the cumulative time distribution of impacts, and the time of the largest hailstone during a hail event. We find that 75 % of local hailfalls last just a few minutes (from less than 4.4 min to less than 7.7 min, depending on a parameter to delineate the events) and that 75 % of the impacts occur in less than 3.3 min to less than 4.7 min. This time distribution suggests that most hailstones, including the largest, fall during a first phase of high hailstone density, while a few remaining and smaller hailstones fall in a second low-density phase.</p

A dynamical–system description of precipitation over the tropics and the midlatitudes

A dynamical–system approach is proposed to describe the relationship between precipitation and a chosen predictor. This is done by constructing a two dimensional phase space spanned by predictor and predictant. This study uses two sounding data sets from the Tropical Western Pacific and Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) over North–East Italy as representatives of the tropics and midlatitudes, in addition to a basin–scale average over the winter–period North Atlantic from global re–analysis data. In contrast to conventional correlation-based approaches, the proposed approach depicts periodic cycles, as well as discharge–recharge cycles as its nonlinear extension. Discharge–recharge cycles for tropical convection are identified by using both the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the column–integrated water vapor (CIW) as predictors, as well as the baroclinicity for the winter–period North–Atlantic rain. On the other hand, the midlatitude rain, as seen over FVG as well as the winter–period North Atlantic, does not constitute a well–defined periodic cycle either with CAPE or CIW as a predictor. The inferred phase–space trajectories are more deterministic at peripheries of dense data areas rather than at a middle in the phase space. Data–dense areas in phase space, where traditional approaches primarily focus, are associated with more prediction uncertainties in our analysis due to more phase-velocity fluctuations

Equitability revisited: why the “equitable threat score” is not equitable

In the forecasting of binary events, verification measures that are “equitable” were defined by Gandin and Murphy to satisfy two requirements: 1) they award all random forecasting systems, including those that always issue the same forecast, the same expected score (typically zero), and 2) they are expressible as the linear weighted sum of the elements of the contingency table, where the weights are independent of the entries in the table, apart from the base rate. The authors demonstrate that the widely used “equitable threat score” (ETS), as well as numerous others, satisfies neither of these requirements and only satisfies the first requirement in the limit of an infinite sample size. Such measures are referred to as “asymptotically equitable.” In the case of ETS, the expected score of a random forecasting system is always positive and only falls below 0.01 when the number of samples is greater than around 30. Two other asymptotically equitable measures are the odds ratio skill score and the symmetric extreme dependency score, which are more strongly inequitable than ETS, particularly for rare events; for example, when the base rate is 2% and the sample size is 1000, random but unbiased forecasting systems yield an expected score of around −0.5, reducing in magnitude to −0.01 or smaller only for sample sizes exceeding 25 000. This presents a problem since these nonlinear measures have other desirable properties, in particular being reliable indicators of skill for rare events (provided that the sample size is large enough). A potential way to reconcile these properties with equitability is to recognize that Gandin and Murphy’s two requirements are independent, and the second can be safely discarded without losing the key advantages of equitability that are embodied in the first. This enables inequitable and asymptotically equitable measures to be scaled to make them equitable, while retaining their nonlinearity and other properties such as being reliable indicators of skill for rare events. It also opens up the possibility of designing new equitable verification measures

Autoantibodies Against Oxidized LDLs and Atherosclerosis in Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE —The aim of our study was to examine, in type 2 diabetic patients, the relationship between autoantibodies against oxidatively modified LDL (oxLDL Ab) and two indexes of atherosclerosis, intimal-medial thickness of the common carotid artery (CCA-IMT), which reflects early atherosclerosis, and the ankle-brachial index (ABI), which reflects advanced atherosclerosis. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS —Thirty newly diagnosed type 2 diabetic patients, 30 type 2 diabetic patients with long duration of disease, and 56 control subjects were studied. To detect oxLDL Ab, the ImmunoLisa Anti-oxLDL Antibody ELISA was used. ABI was estimated at rest by strain-gauge plethysmography. Carotid B-mode imaging was performed on a high-resolution imaging system (ATL HDI 5000). RESULTS —In patients with long duration of disease, IgG oxLDL Ab were significantly higher and ABI significantly lower compared with the other two groups. We found a correlation between IgG oxLDL Ab and CCA-IMT in all diabetic patients. A significant inverse correlation between IgG oxLDL Ab and ABI only in patients with long duration of disease was seen, demonstrating a close relationship between these autoantibodies and advanced atherosclerosis. CONCLUSIONS —IgG OxLDL Ab may be markers of the advanced phase of the atherosclerotic process and the response of the immunological system to the oxLDL, which are present within atherosclerotic lesions

A systematic approach to the Planck LFI end-to-end test and its application to the DPC Level 1 pipeline

The Level 1 of the Planck LFI Data Processing Centre (DPC) is devoted to the handling of the scientific and housekeeping telemetry. It is a critical component of the Planck ground segment which has to strictly commit to the project schedule to be ready for the launch and flight operations. In order to guarantee the quality necessary to achieve the objectives of the Planck mission, the design and development of the Level 1 software has followed the ESA Software Engineering Standards. A fundamental step in the software life cycle is the Verification and Validation of the software. The purpose of this work is to show an example of procedures, test development and analysis successfully applied to a key software project of an ESA mission. We present the end-to-end validation tests performed on the Level 1 of the LFI-DPC, by detailing the methods used and the results obtained. Different approaches have been used to test the scientific and housekeeping data processing. Scientific data processing has been tested by injecting signals with known properties directly into the acquisition electronics, in order to generate a test dataset of real telemetry data and reproduce as much as possible nominal conditions. For the HK telemetry processing, validation software have been developed to inject known parameter values into a set of real housekeeping packets and perform a comparison with the corresponding timelines generated by the Level 1. With the proposed validation and verification procedure, where the on-board and ground processing are viewed as a single pipeline, we demonstrated that the scientific and housekeeping processing of the Planck-LFI raw data is correct and meets the project requirements.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures; this paper is part of the Prelaunch status LFI papers published on JINST: http://www.iop.org/EJ/journal/-page=extra.proc5/jins

Observational Mass-to-Light Ratio of Galaxy Systems: from Poor Groups to Rich Clusters

We study the mass-to-light ratio of galaxy systems from poor groups to rich clusters, and present for the first time a large database for useful comparisons with theoretical predictions. We extend a previous work, where B_j band luminosities and optical virial masses were analyzed for a sample of 89 clusters. Here we also consider a sample of 52 more clusters, 36 poor clusters, 7 rich groups, and two catalogs, of about 500 groups each, recently identified in the Nearby Optical Galaxy sample by using two different algorithms. We obtain the blue luminosity and virial mass for all systems considered. We devote a large effort to establishing the homogeneity of the resulting values, as well as to considering comparable physical regions, i.e. those included within the virial radius. By analyzing a fiducial, combined sample of 294 systems we find that the mass increases faster than the luminosity: the linear fit gives M\propto L_B^{1.34 \pm 0.03}, with a tendency for a steeper increase in the low--mass range. In agreement with the previous work, our present results are superior owing to the much higher statistical significance and the wider dynamical range covered (about 10^{12}-10^{15} M_solar). We present a comparison between our results and the theoretical predictions on the relation between M/L_B and halo mass, obtained by combining cosmological numerical simulations and semianalytic modeling of galaxy formation.Comment: 25 pages, 12 eps figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Optimization of Planck/LFI on--board data handling

To asses stability against 1/f noise, the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) onboard the Planck mission will acquire data at a rate much higher than the data rate allowed by its telemetry bandwith of 35.5 kbps. The data are processed by an onboard pipeline, followed onground by a reversing step. This paper illustrates the LFI scientific onboard processing to fit the allowed datarate. This is a lossy process tuned by using a set of 5 parameters Naver, r1, r2, q, O for each of the 44 LFI detectors. The paper quantifies the level of distortion introduced by the onboard processing, EpsilonQ, as a function of these parameters. It describes the method of optimizing the onboard processing chain. The tuning procedure is based on a optimization algorithm applied to unprocessed and uncompressed raw data provided either by simulations, prelaunch tests or data taken from LFI operating in diagnostic mode. All the needed optimization steps are performed by an automated tool, OCA2, which ends with optimized parameters and produces a set of statistical indicators, among them the compression rate Cr and EpsilonQ. For Planck/LFI the requirements are Cr = 2.4 and EpsilonQ <= 10% of the rms of the instrumental white noise. To speedup the process an analytical model is developed that is able to extract most of the relevant information on EpsilonQ and Cr as a function of the signal statistics and the processing parameters. This model will be of interest for the instrument data analysis. The method was applied during ground tests when the instrument was operating in conditions representative of flight. Optimized parameters were obtained and the performance has been verified, the required data rate of 35.5 Kbps has been achieved while keeping EpsilonQ at a level of 3.8% of white noise rms well within the requirements.Comment: 51 pages, 13 fig.s, 3 tables, pdflatex, needs JINST.csl, graphicx, txfonts, rotating; Issue 1.0 10 nov 2009; Sub. to JINST 23Jun09, Accepted 10Nov09, Pub.: 29Dec09; This is a preprint, not the final versio