Rule-based epidemic models

Rule-based models generalise reaction-based models with reagents that have internal state and may be bound together to form complexes, as in chemistry. An important class of system that would be intractable if expressed as reactions or ordinary differential equations can be efficiently simulated when expressed as rules. In this paper we demonstrate the utility of the rule-based approach for epidemiological modelling presenting a suite of seven models illustrating the spread of infectious disease under different scenarios: wearing masks, infection via fomites and prevention by hand-washing, the concept of vector-borne diseases, testing and contact tracing interventions, disease propagation within motif-structured populations with shared environments such as schools, and superspreading events. Rule-based models allow to combine transparent modelling approach with scalability and compositionality and therefore can facilitate the study of aspects of infectious disease propagation in a richer context than would otherwise be feasible

ALVIN dives on the continental margin off the southeastern United States, July 2-13, 1967

Originally issued as Reference No. 67-80, series later renamed WHOI-In late June and July, 1967, the Deep Submergence Research Vehicle (DSRV) ALVIN, aboard its mother snip, LULU, proceeded from the spring base of operations, Nassau, to its home port of Woods Hole. During this trip, from July 2 to July 14, a series of five dives were made by ALVIN on the Blake Plateau off Georgia and South Carolina, and on the continental slope north of Cape Hatteras.U.S. Geological Survey Contracts 14-08-0001-10875 Nonr-3484(00)

Rule-based epidemic models

Rule-based models generalise reaction-based models with reagents that have internal state and may be bound together to form complexes, as in chemistry. An important class of system that would be intractable if expressed as reactions or ordinary differential equations can be efficiently simulated when expressed as rules. In this paper we demonstrate the utility of the rule-based approach for epidemiological modelling presenting a suite of seven models illustrating the spread of infectious disease under different scenarios: wearing masks, infection via fomites and prevention by hand-washing, the concept of vector-borne diseases, testing and contact tracing interventions, disease propagation within motif-structured populations with shared environments such as schools, and superspreading events. Rule-based models allow to combine transparent modelling approach with scalability and compositionality and therefore can facilitate the study of aspects of infectious disease propagation in a richer context than would otherwise be feasible

Female Perpetrators in Internal Child Trafficking in China: An empirical study

Through an empirical study, this article explores the overall profile of female traffickers of children in China and their role and performance in the trafficking processes. Its contribution to the human-trafficking literature lies in its focus on female perpetrators in particular. The article provides an overview of the international literature on female traffickers as well as contemporary knowledge about internal child trafficking in China. Empirical data from incarcerated traffickers suggest that portraying female traffickers as active players of criminal networks obscures the structural problems affecting female child traffickers. The short-term result is that the problems of female offenders are ignored, and the long-term impact is policy making that is disconnected from the lived experiences of an important population. From a gender perspective, this study suggests that female child traffickers are offenders as well as victims of social and gender inequalities in China’s reform era. This study also proposes that internal child trafficking in China should be brought in the international and Anglo-American debates surrounding human trafficking

Modelling the Health and Economic Impacts of Population-Wide Testing, Contact Tracing and Isolation (PTTI) Strategies for COVID-19 in the UK

Background: The COVID-19 epidemic in the UK has resulted in over 280,000 reported cases and over 40,000 deaths as of 5th June 2020. In the context of a slower increase in reported cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 over the last few weeks compared to earlier in the epidemic, the UK is starting to relax the physical restrictions (‘lockdown’) that have been imposed since 23 March 2020. This has been accompanied by the announcement of a strategy to test people for infection, trace contacts of those tested positive, and isolate positive diagnoses. While such policies are expected to be impactful, there is no conclusive evidence of which approach to this is likely to achieve the most appropriate balance between benefits and costs. This study combines mathematical and economic modelling to estimate the impact, costs, feasibility, and health and economic effects of different strategies. / Methods: We provide detailed description, impact, costing, and feasibility assessment of population-scale testing, tracing, and isolation strategies (PTTI). We estimate the impact of different PTTI strategies with a deterministic mathematical model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that accurately captures tracing and isolation of contacts of individuals exposed, infectious, and diagnosed with the virus. We combine this with an economic model to project the mortality, intensive care, hospital, and non-hospital case outcomes, costs to the UK National Health Service, reduction in GDP, and intervention costs of each strategy. Model parameters are derived from publicly available data, and the model is calibrated to reported deaths associated with COVID-19. We modelled 31 scenarios in total (Panel 2). The first 18 comprised nine with ‘triggers’ (labelled with the -Trig suffix) for subsequent lockdown periods (>40,000 new infections per day) and lockdown releases (<10,000 new infections per day), and nine corresponding scenarios without triggers, namely: no large-scale PTTI (scenario 1); scale-up of PTTI to testing the whole population every week, with May–July 2020 lockdown release (scenario 2b), or delayed lockdown release until scale-up complete on 31 August 2020 (scenario 2a); these two scenarios with mandatory use of face coverings (scenarios 3a and 3b); and scenarios 2a, 2b, 3a, 3b replacing untargeted PTTI with testing of symptomatic people only (scenarios 4a, 4b, 4c, 4d). The final 13 scenarios looked at: whole population weekly testing to suppress the epidemic with lower tracing success (scenarios 3b-Trig00, 3b-Trig10, 3b-Trig20, 3b-Trig30) and switched to targeted testing after two months when it may suppress the epidemic (scenarios 3b-Trig00-2mo and 3b-Trig30-2mo), and targeted testing with lower tracing success (scenarios 4d-Trig10, 4dTrig20, 4d-Trig30, 4d-Trig40, 4d-Trig50, 4d-Trig60, 4d-Trig70). / Findings: Given that physical distancing measures have already been relaxed in the UK, scenario 4d-Trig (targeted testing of symptomatic people only, with a mandatory face coverings policy and subsequent lockdown triggered to enable PTTI to suppress the epidemic), is a strategy that will result in the fewest deaths (~52,000) and has the lowest intervention costs (~£8bn). The additional lockdown results in total reduction in GDP of ~£503bn, less than half the cost to the economy of subsequent lockdowns triggered in a scenario without PTTI (scenario 1-Trig, ~£1180bn reduction in GDP, ~105,000 deaths). In summer months, with lower cold and flu prevalence, approximately 75,000 symptomatic people per day need to be tested for this strategy to work, assuming 64% of their contacts are effectively traced (~80% traced with 80% success) within the infectious period (most within the first two days and nearly all by seven days) and all are isolated – including those without any symptoms – for 14 days. Untargeted testing of everyone every week, if it were feasible, may work without tracing, but at a higher cost (scenario 3b-Trig00). This cost could be reduced by switching to targeted testing after the epidemic is suppressed (scenario 3b-Trig30-2mo), though we note the epidemic could be suppressed with targeted testing itself providing tracing and isolation has at least a 32% success rate (scenario 4dTrig40). / Interpretation: PTTI strategies to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic within the context of a relaxation of lockdown will necessitate subsequent lockdowns to keep the epidemic suppressed during PTTI scale-up. Targeted testing of symptomatic people only can suppress the epidemic if accompanied by mandated use of face coverings. The feasibility of PTTI depends on sufficient capacity, capabilities, infrastructure and integrated systems to deliver it. The political and public acceptability of alternative scenarios for subsequent lockdowns needs to take account of crucial implications for employment, personal and national debt, education, population mental health and non-COVID-19 disease. Our model is able to incorporate additional scenarios as the situation evolves

Submarine groundwater discharge to Tampa Bay : nutrient fluxes and biogeochemistry of the coastal aquifer

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Marine Chemistry 104 (2007): 85-97, doi:10.1016/j.marchem.2006.10.012.To separately quantify the roles of fresh and saline submarine groundwater discharge (SGD), relative to that of rivers, in transporting nutrients to Tampa Bay, Florida, we used three approaches (Darcy's Law calculations, a watershed water budget, and a 222Rn mass-balance) to estimate rate of SGD from the Pinellas peninsula. Groundwater samples were collected in 69 locations in the coastal aquifer to examine biogeochemical conditions, nutrient concentrations and stoichiometry, and salinity structure. Salinity structure was also examined using stationary electrical resistivity measurements. The coastal aquifer along the Pinellas peninsula was chemically reducing in all locations sampled, and that condition influences nitrogen (N) form and mobility of N and PO43−. Concentrations of NH4+, PO43− and ratio of dissolved inorganic N (DIN) to PO43− were all related to measured oxidation/reduction potential (pε) of the groundwater. Ratio of DIN: PO43− was below Redfield ratio in both fresh and saline groundwater. Nitrogen occurred almost exclusively in reduced forms, NH4+ and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), suggesting that anthropogenic N is exported from the watershed in those forms. In comparison to other SGD studies, rate of PO43− flux in the seepage zone (μM m− 2 d− 1) in Tampa Bay was higher than previous estimates, likely due to 1) high watershed population density, 2) chemically reducing conditions, and 3) high ion concentrations in fresh groundwater. Estimates of freshwater groundwater flux indicate that the ratio of groundwater discharge to stream flow is not, vert, similar 20 to 50%, and that the magnitudes of both the total dissolved nitrogen and PO43− loads due to fresh SGD are not, vert, similar 40 to 100% of loads carried by streams. Estimates of SGD based on radon inventories in near-shore waters were 2 to 5 times greater than the estimates of freshwater groundwater discharge, suggesting that brackish and saline SGD is also an important process in Tampa Bay and results in flux of regenerated N and P from sediment to surface water.This work was supported by a USGS Mendenhall Postdoctoral Fellowship to K.D.K. and by the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program's (CMGP) Tampa Bay Project

Friends and Enemies Within: The Roles of Subgroups, Imbalance, and Isolates in Geographically Dispersed Teams

Research regarding geographically dispersed teams (GDTs) is increasingly common and has yielded many insights into how spatio-temporal and socio-demographic factors affect GDT functioning and performance. Largely missing, however, is research on the effects of the basic geographic configuration of GDTs. In this study, we explore the impact of GDT configuration (i.e., the relative number of team members at different sites, independent of the characteristics of those members or the spatial and temporal distances among them) on GDT dynamics. In a quasi-experimental setting, we examine the effects of configuration using a sample of 62 six-person teams in four different one- and twosite configurations. As predicted, we find that configuration significantly affects team dynamics – independent of spatio-temporal distance and socio-demographic factors. More specifically, we find that teams with geographically-based subgroups (defined as two or more members per site) have significantly less shared team identity, less effective transactive memory, more conflict, and more coordination issues. Furthermore, in teams with subgroups, imbalance (i.e., the uneven distribution of members across sites) exacerbates these effects; subgroups with a numerical minority of team members report significantly poorer scores on the same four outcomes. In contrast, teams with geographically isolated members (i.e., members who have no teammates at their site) outperform both balanced and imbalanced configurations

Long term records of erosional change from marine ferromanganese crusts

Ferromanganese crusts from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans record the Nd and Pb isotope compositions of the water masses from which they form as hydrogenous precipitates. The10Be/9Be-calibrated time series for crusts are compared to estimates based on Co-contents, from which the equatorial Pacific crusts studied are inferred to have recorded ca. 60 Ma of Pacific deep water history. Time series of ɛNd show that the oceans have maintained a strong provinciality in Nd isotopic composition, determined by terrigenous inputs, over periods of up to 60 Ma. Superimposed on the distinct basin-specific signatures are variations in Nd and Pb isotope time series which have been particularly marked over the last 5 Ma. It is shown that changes in erosional inputs, particularly associated with Himalayan uplift and the northern hemisphere glaciation have influenced Indian and Atlantic Ocean deep water isotopic compositions respectively. There is no evidence so far for an imprint of the final closure of the Panama Isthmus on the Pb and Nd isotopic composition in either Atlantic or Pacific deep water masses

SOLO: a meiotic protein required for centromere cohesion, coorientation, and SMC1 localization in Drosophila melanogaster

Sisters on the loose (SOLO) protein functions as a meiotic cohesin component critical for correct chromosome segregation in Drosophila