Bayesian calibration of a carbon balance model PREBAS using data from permanent growth experiments and national forest inventory

Policy-relevant forest models must be environment and management sensitive and provide unbiased estimates of predicted variables over their intended areas of application. While empirical models derive their structure and parameters from representative data sets, process-based model (PBM) parameters should be evaluated in ranges that have a biological meaning independently of output data. At the same time PBMs should be calibrated against observations in order to obtain unbiased estimates and an understanding of their predictive capability. By means of model data assimilation, we Bayesian calibrated a forest model (PREBAS) using an extensive dataset that covered a wide range of climatic conditions, species composition and management practices. PREBAS was calibrated for three species in Finland: Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] H. Karst.) and Silver birch (Betula pendula L.). Data assimilation was strongly effective in reducing the uncertainty of PREBAS parameters and predictions. A country-generic calibration showed robust performances in predicting forest variables and the results were consistent with yield tables and national forest statistics. The posterior predictive uncertainty of the model was mainly influenced by the uncertainty of the structural and measurement error.Peer reviewe

Comparison of Variable-Number Tandem-Repeat Markers typing and IS1245 Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism fingerprinting of Mycobacterium avium subsp hominissuis from human and porcine origins

Peer reviewe

Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover Studies of the Martian Atmosphere Over Jezero From Pressure Measurements

The pressure sensors on Mars rover Perseverance measure the pressure field in the Jezero crater on regular hourly basis starting in sol 15 after landing. The present study extends up to sol 460 encompassing the range of solar longitudes from Ls ∼ 13°–241° (Martian Year (MY) 36). The data show the changing daily pressure cycle, the sol-to-sol seasonal evolution of the mean pressure field driven by the CO2 sublimation and deposition cycle at the poles, the characterization of up to six components of the atmospheric tides and their relationship to dust content in the atmosphere. They also show the presence of wave disturbances with periods 2–5 sols, exploring their baroclinic nature, short period oscillations (mainly at night-time) in the range 8–24 min that we interpret as internal gravity waves, transient pressure drops with duration ∼1–150 s produced by vortices, and rapid turbulent fluctuations. We also analyze the effects on pressure measurements produced by a regional dust storm over Jezero at Ls ∼ 155°.The UPV/EHU team (Spain) is supported by Grant PID2019-109467GB-I00 funded by 1042 MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/ and by Groups Gobierno Vasco IT1742-22. GM wants to acknowledge JPL funding from USRA Contract Number 1638782. A. Vicente-Retortillo is supported by the Spanish State Research Agency (AEI) Project No. MDM-2017-0737 Unidad de Excelencia “María de Maeztu”- Centro de Astrobiología (INTA-CSIC). Part of the research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004). GM wants to acknowledge JPL funding from USRA Contract Number 1638782

Convective Vortices and Dust Devils Detected and Characterized by Mars 2020

We characterize vortex and dust devils (DDs) at Jezero from pressure and winds obtained with the Mars Environmental Dynamics Analyzer (MEDA) instrument on Mars 2020 over 415 Martian days (sols) (Ls = 6°–213°). Vortices are abundant (4.9 per sol with pressure drops >0.5 Pa correcting from gaps in coverage) and they peak at noon. At least one in every five vortices carries dust, and 75% of all vortices with Δp > 2.0 Pa are dusty. Seasonal variability was small but DDs were abundant during a dust storm (Ls = 152°–156°). Vortices are more frequent and intense over terrains with lower thermal inertia favoring high daytime surface-to-air temperature gradients. We fit measurements of winds and pressure during DD encounters to models of vortices. We obtain vortex diameters that range from 5 to 135 m with a mean of 20 m, and from the frequency of close encounters we estimate a DD activity of 2.0–3.0 DDs km−2 sol−1. A comparison of MEDA observations with a Large Eddy Simulation of Jezero at Ls = 45° produces a similar result. Three 100-m size DDs passed within 30 m of the rover from what we estimate that the activity of DDs with diameters >100 m is 0.1 DDs km−2sol−1, implying that dust lifting is dominated by the largest vortices in Jezero. At least one vortex had a central pressure drop of 9.0 Pa and internal winds of 25 ms−1. The MEDA wind sensors were partially damaged during two DD encounters whose characteristics we elaborate in detail.The authors are very grateful to the entire Mars 2020 science operations team. The authors would also like to thank Lori Fenton and an anonymous reviewer for many suggestions that greatly improved the manuscript. This work was supported by Grant PID2019-109467GB-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/ and by Grupos Gobierno Vasco IT1742-22 and by the Spanish National Research, Development and Innovation Program, through the Grants RTI2018-099825-B-C31, ESP2016-80320-C2-1-R, and ESP2014-54256-C4-3-R. Baptiste Chide is supported by the Director's Postdoctoral Fellowship from the Los Alamos National Laboratory. M. Lemmon is supported by contract 15-712 from Arizona State University and 1607215 from Caltech-JPL. R. Lorenz was supported by JPL contract 1655893. Germán Martínez acknowledges JPL funding from USRA Contract Number 1638782. A. Munguira was supported by Grant PRE2020-092562 funded by MCIN/AEI and by “ESF Investing in your future.” A. Vicente-Retortillo is supported by the Spanish State Research Agency (AEI) Project No. MDM-2017-0737 Unidad de Excelencia “María de Maeztu”-Centro de Astrobiología (INTA-CSIC), and by the Comunidad de Madrid Project S2018/NMT-4291 (TEC2SPACE-CM). Part of the research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004). Finnish researchers acknowledge the Academy of Finland Grant 328 310529. Researchers based in France acknowledge support from the CNES for their work on Perseverance

Expression of hormone receptors in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Hormone receptors play an important role in many types of cancers. Alongside factors associated with human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, hormonal receptors may impact the tumorigenesis of oropharyngeal cancer. This study consists of 199 consecutive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) patients diagnosed and treated with a curative intent. We examined androgen (AR), estrogen (ER; both alpha and beta), and progesterone receptor (PR) expressions using immunohistochemistry comparing tumor and patient characteristics. AR was expressed in 16%, PR in 27% and ER-beta in 63% of the tumors. HPV- and p16-positive tumors expressed more AR and less PR than their negative counterparts. High PR expression was associated with poor disease-specific and locoregional recurrence-free survival. AR, PR, and ER-beta are expressed in OPSCC, and AR and PR expressions are associated with HPV and p16 status. Furthermore, PR appears to have prognostic significance. This may allow us to investigate the role of anti-hormone receptors in the treatment of OPSCC.Peer reviewe

The diverse meteorology of Jezero crater over the first 250 sols of Perseverance on Mars

ASA’s Perseverance rover’s Mars Environmental Dynamics Analyzer is collecting data at Jezero crater, characterizing the physical processes in the lowest layer of the Martian atmosphere. Here we present measurements from the instrument’s first 250 sols of operation, revealing a spatially and temporally variable meteorology at Jezero. We find that temperature measurements at four heights capture the response of the atmospheric surface layer to multiple phenomena. We observe the transition from a stable night-time thermal inversion to a daytime, highly turbulent convective regime, with large vertical thermal gradients. Measurement of multiple daily optical depths suggests aerosol concentrations are higher in the morning than in the afternoon. Measured wind patterns are driven mainly by local topography, with a small contribution from regional winds. Daily and seasonal variability of relative humidity shows a complex hydrologic cycle. These observations suggest that changes in some local surface properties, such as surface albedo and thermal inertia, play an influential role. On a larger scale, surface pressure measurements show typical signatures of gravity waves and baroclinic eddies in a part of the seasonal cycle previously characterized as low wave activity. These observations, both combined and simultaneous, unveil the diversity of processes driving change on today’s Martian surface at Jezero crater

Modeling persistence of coarse woody debris residuals in boreal forests as an ecological property

There is a trade-off between leaving coarse woody debris (CWD) in the stand, providing desirable ecosystem services, and harvesting it. To consider this trade-off, forest management needs to model describing the decomposition of CWD. When a trunk is lying on the ground, it can be attacked by microorganisms faster than when it is still standing. Current decomposition models fail to account for these local differences in processes, which may give rise to errors in the estimation of stand C balance. We extended the Q decomposition model to represent the influences of tree species and the local position of the wood. We utilized data from two studies on long-term deadwood decomposition in forests. We first calibrated the model on the whole dataset, and then divided the data into different CWD decomposition classes, and then allowed some of the parameters to vary between different CWD decomposition classes. The calibrations were performed within a Bayesian framework, which allowed for a statistically sound comparison of the calibration results. The difference between the remaining C mass predicted by the two versions of the model, one considering one single calibration for all decomposition classes and one specific to decomposition classes, depended on the CWD class but was in general substantial. Some classes, when modeled with a specific parameterization, resulted in C stocks after 50 yr 1-5 times less than that predicted by the single parameterization model. Logs decayed faster than snags, and birch wood much faster than pine and spruce wood, with little difference between the two conifers. Russian spruce wood decomposed somewhat faster than Finnish spruce wood. Incorporating our calibration, describing specifically the processes driving the wood decay locally, into a C balance model of forests may change model estimates substantially

How to avoid having your manuscript rejected: Perspectives from the Editors of Forest Ecology and Management

This editorial is adapted from the original version written by JoshuaSchimel and Karl Ritz, Editors-in-Chief of Elsevier's journal Soil Biologyand Biochemistry: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2020.107823. Dr.Schimel and Dr. Ritz provided an insightful guide that describes howeditors and reviewers assess papers, and how authors may increase therate of success in getting published. We adapted their editorial andadded it to our series of editors? notes that help authors develop strongscience to publish in Forest Ecology and Management.EEA BalcarceFil: Binkley, Dan. Northern Arizona University, Estados Unidos.Fil: Fernández, María Elena. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce; Argentina. Agencia de Extensión Rural Tandil; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.Fil: Fredricksen, Todd. Ferrum College, Estados Unidos.Fil: Makinen, Harri. Natural Resources Institute; Finlandia.Fil: Prescott, Cindy. The University of Columbia, Estados UnidosFil: Tomé, Margarida. University of Lisbon Centro de Estudos Florestais, Portuga

Models relating stem growth to crown length dynamics: Application to loblolly pine and Norway spruce.

Abstract We derive and analyze a model that relates the growth rate of cross-sectional area (\u27csa\u27) at any height on the central stem of a tree to crown-length dynamics. The derivation is based, in part, on assumptions that (a) active csa on the central stem relates allometrically to the length of crown above the cross section, and (b) inactive csa is proportional to active csa within the crown. We also assume that the deactivation rate of csa beneath the crown is determined, in part, by the rate of crown rise. Integration of the growth-rate model under an additional assumption-that total crown length is constant after stand closure-provides a simple model of annual or periodic growth of total csa that can be fit to standard growth data. Three implications of the assumptions and integration are notable: (1) total csa within the crown scales allometrically with stem length above the cross section; (2) for a special case, total csa beneath the crown scales with stem length above the cross section; more generally, csa scales with a linear combination of the stem and crown lengths; and (3) the stem beneath the crown forms to approximate a frustum of a quadratic paraboloid. Basal area data from a loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) spacing trial show good agreement with (1) and (2), and with an empirical model developed from the special case of (2). Data from the plots of a Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) thinning trial, where crown length remained approximately constant, show good agreement with (2) and the empirical model. Prediction (3) is demonstrated by simulation

Reconstruction of the trajectory of the Huygens probe using the Huygens Atmospheric Structure Instrument (HASI)

The Huygens probe returned scientific measurements from the atmosphere and surface of Titan on 14 January 2005. Knowledge of the trajectory of Huygens is necessary for scientific analysis of those measurements. We use measurements from the Huygens Atmospheric Structure Instrument (HASI) to reconstruct the trajectory of Huygens during its mission. The HASI Accelerometer subsystem measured the axial acceleration of the probe with errors of 3E−6 m s−2, the most accurate measurements ever made by an atmospheric structure instrument on another planetary body. The atmosphere was detected at an altitude of 1498 km. Measurements of the normal acceleration of the probe, which are important for determining the probe's attitude during hypersonic entry, were significantly less accurate and limited by transverse sensitivity of the piezo sensors. Peak acceleration of 121.2 m s−2 occurred at 234.9 km altitude. The parachute deployment sequence started at 157.1 km and a speed of 342.1 m s−1. Direct measurements of pressure and temperature began shortly afterwards. The measured accelerations and equations of motion have been used to reconstruct the trajectory prior to parachute deployment. Measured pressures and temperatures, together with the equation of hydrostatic equilibrium and the equation of state, have been used to reconstruct the trajectory after parachute deployment. Uncertainties in the entry state of Huygens at the top of the atmosphere are significant, but can be reduced by requiring that the trajectory and atmospheric properties be continuous at parachute deployment