The importance of transport model uncertainties for the estimation of CO2 sources and sinks using satellite measurements

This study presents a synthetic model intercomparison to investigate the importance of transport model errors for estimating the sources and sinks of CO2 using satellite measurements. The experiments were designed for testing the potential performance of the proposed CO2 lidar A-SCOPE, but also apply to other space borne missions that monitor total column CO2. The participating transport models IFS, LMDZ, TM3, and TM5 were run in forward and inverse mode using common a priori CO2 fluxes and initial concentrations. Forward simulations of column averaged CO2 (xCO2) mixing ratios vary between the models by s=0.5 ppm over the continents and s=0.27 ppm over the oceans. Despite the fact that the models agree on average on the sub-ppm level, these modest differences nevertheless lead to significant discrepancies in the inverted fluxes of 0.1 PgC/yr per 106 km2 over land and 0.03 PgC/yr per 106 km2 over the ocean. These transport model induced flux uncertainties exceed the target requirement that was formulated for the A-SCOPE mission of 0.02 PgC/yr per 106 km2, and could also limit the overall performance of other CO2 missions such as GOSAT. A variable, but overall encouraging agreement is found in comparison with FTS measurements at Park Falls, Darwin, Spitsbergen, and Bremen, although systematic differences are found exceeding the 0.5 ppm level. Because of this, our estimate of the impact of transport model uncerainty is likely to be conservative. It is concluded that to make use of the remote sensing technique for quantifying the sources and sinks of CO2 not only requires highly accurate satellite instruments, but also puts stringent requirements on the performance of atmospheric transport models. Improving the accuracy of these models should receive high priority, which calls for a closer collaboration between experts in atmospheric dynamics and tracer transpor

Oral Cytokine Levels Are More Linked to Levels of Plasma and Oral HIV-1 RNA Than to CD4+ T-Cell Counts in People With HIV.

BackgroundWe determined the levels of 11 soluble immune mediators in oral washings of AIDS Clinical Trials Group A5254 participants with varying degrees of plasma viremia and CD4 T-cell counts to characterize the mucosal immune response at different stages of HIV-1 infection.MethodsA5254 was a multicenter, cross-sectional study in people with HIV (PWH) recruited into 4 strata based on CD4 count and levels of plasma viremia: stratum (St) A: CD4 ≤200 cells/mm3, HIV-1 RNA (viral load [VL]) >1000 cps/mL; St B: CD4 ≤200, VL ≤1000; St C: CD4 >200, VL >1000; St D: CD4 >200, VL ≤1000. Oral/throat washings were obtained from all participants. Soluble markers were tested in oral/throat washings using a multibead fluorescent platform and were compared across strata. Linear regression was used to determine the associations between cytokines and HIV-1 in plasma and oral fluid.ResultsSt A participants had higher levels of interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, IL-17, tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα), and interferon gamma (IFNγ) compared with St B and D (P = .02; P < .0001) but were not different from St C. IL-8, IL-10, and IL-12 were elevated in St A compared with the other 3 strata (P = .046; P < .0001). Linear regression demonstrated that oral HIV-1 levels were associated with IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, and TNFα production (R > .40; P < .001) when controlling for CD4 count and opportunistic infections.ConclusionsOur results show that high levels of oral HIV-1, rather than low CD4 counts, were linked to the production of oral immune mediators. Participants with AIDS and uncontrolled viremia demonstrated higher levels of pro- and anti-inflammatory soluble immune mediators compared with participants with lower HIV-1 RNA. The interplay of HIV-1 and these immune mediators could be important in the oral health of PWH

Atmospheric greenhouse gases retrieved from SCIAMACHY: comparison to ground-based FTS measurements and model results

SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT (launched in 2002) enables the retrieval of global long-term column-averaged dry air mole fractions of the two most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane (denoted XCO_2 and XCH_4). In order to assess the quality of the greenhouse gas data obtained with the recently introduced v2 of the scientific retrieval algorithm WFM-DOAS, we present validations with ground-based Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) measurements and comparisons with model results at eight Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) sites providing realistic error estimates of the satellite data. Such validation is a prerequisite to assess the suitability of data sets for their use in inverse modelling. It is shown that there are generally no significant differences between the carbon dioxide annual increases of SCIAMACHY and the assimilation system CarbonTracker (2.00 ± 0.16 ppm yr^(−1) compared to 1.94 ± 0.03 ppm yr−1 on global average). The XCO_2 seasonal cycle amplitudes derived from SCIAMACHY are typically larger than those from TCCON which are in turn larger than those from CarbonTracker. The absolute values of the northern hemispheric TCCON seasonal cycle amplitudes are closer to SCIAMACHY than to CarbonTracker and the corresponding differences are not significant when compared with SCIAMACHY, whereas they can be significant for a subset of the analysed TCCON sites when compared with CarbonTracker. At Darwin we find discrepancies of the seasonal cycle derived from SCIAMACHY compared to the other data sets which can probably be ascribed to occurrences of undetected thin clouds. Based on the comparison with the reference data, we conclude that the carbon dioxide data set can be characterised by a regional relative precision (mean standard deviation of the differences) of about 2.2 ppm and a relative accuracy (standard deviation of the mean differences) of 1.1–1.2 ppm for monthly average composites within a radius of 500 km. For methane, prior to November 2005, the regional relative precision amounts to 12 ppb and the relative accuracy is about 3 ppb for monthly composite averages within the same radius. The loss of some spectral detector pixels results in a degradation of performance thereafter in the spectral range currently used for the methane column retrieval. This leads to larger scatter and lower XCH_4 values are retrieved in the tropics for the subsequent time period degrading the relative accuracy. As a result, the overall relative precision is estimated to be 17 ppb and the relative accuracy is in the range of about 10–20 ppb for monthly averages within a radius of 500 km. The derived estimates show that the SCIAMACHY XCH_4 data set before November 2005 is suitable for regional source/sink determination and regional-scale flux uncertainty reduction via inverse modelling worldwide. In addition, the XCO2 monthly data potentially provide valuable information in continental regions, where there is sparse sampling by surface flask measurements

Regulatory T Cell Suppression of Gag-Specific CD8+ T Cell Polyfunctional Response After Therapeutic Vaccination of HIV-1-Infected Patients on ART

We tested the hypothesis that therapeutic vaccination against HIV-1 can increase the frequency and suppressive function of regulatory, CD4+ T cells (Treg), thereby masking enhancement of HIV-1-specific CD8+ T cell response. HIV-1-infected subjects on antiretroviral therapy (N = 17) enrolled in a phase I therapeutic vaccine trial received 2 doses of autologous dendritic cells (DC) loaded with HIV-1 peptides. The frequency of CD4+CD25hiFOXP3+ Treg in blood was determined prior to and after vaccination in subjects and normal controls. Polyfunctional CD8+ T cell responses were determined pre- and post-vaccine (N = 7) for 5 immune mediators after in vitro stimulation with Gag peptide, staphylococcal enterotoxin B (SEB), or medium alone. Total vaccine response (post-vaccine–pre-vaccine) was compared in the Treg(+) and Treg-depleted (Treg-) sets. After vaccination, 12/17 subjects showed a trend of increased Treg frequency (P = 0.06) from 0.74% to 1.2%. The increased frequency did not correlate with CD8+ T cell vaccine response by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay for interferon γ production. Although there was no significant change in CD8+ T cell polyfunctional response after vaccination, Treg depletion increased the polyfunctionality of the total vaccine response (P = 0.029), with a >2-fold increase in the percentage of CD8+ T cells producing multiple immune mediators. In contrast, depletion of Treg did not enhance polyfunctional T cell response to SEB, implying specificity of suppression to HIV-1 Gag. Therapeutic immunization with a DC-based vaccine against HIV-1 caused a modest increase in Treg frequency and a significant increase in HIV-1-specific, Treg suppressive function. The Treg suppressive effect masked an increase in the vaccine-induced anti-HIV-1-specific polyfunctional response. The role of Treg should be considered in immunotherapeutic trials of HIV-1 infection

Toward accurate CO_2 and CH_4 observations from GOSAT

The column-average dry air mole fractions of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane (X_(CO_2) and X_(CH_4)) are inferred from observations of backscattered sunlight conducted by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). Comparing the first year of GOSAT retrievals over land with colocated ground-based observations of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), we find an average difference (bias) of −0.05% and −0.30% for X_(CO_2) and X_(CH_4) with a station-to-station variability (standard deviation of the bias) of 0.37% and 0.26% among the 6 considered TCCON sites. The root-mean square deviation of the bias-corrected satellite retrievals from colocated TCCON observations amounts to 2.8 ppm for X_(CO_2) and 0.015 ppm for X_(CH_4). Without any data averaging, the GOSAT records reproduce general source/sink patterns such as the seasonal cycle of X_(CO_2) suggesting the use of the satellite retrievals for constraining surface fluxes

Technical Note: Latitude-time variations of atmospheric column-average dry air mole fractions of CO_2, CH_4 and N_2O

We present a comparison of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM)-based chemistry-transport model (ACTM) simulation with total column measurements of CO_2, CH_4 and N_2O from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). The model is able to capture observed trends, seasonal cycles and inter hemispheric gradients at most sampled locations for all three species. The model-observation agreements are best for CO_2, because the simulation uses fossil fuel inventories and an inverse model estimate of non-fossil fuel fluxes. The ACTM captures much of the observed seasonal variability in CO_2 and N_2O total columns (~81 % variance, R>0.9 between ACTM and TCCON for 19 out of 22 cases). These results suggest that the transport processes in troposphere and stratosphere are well represented in ACTM. Thus the poor correlation between simulated and observed CH4 total columns, particularly at tropical and extra-tropical sites, have been attributed to the uncertainties in surface emissions and loss by hydroxyl radicals. While the upward-looking total column measurements of CO_2 contains surface flux signals at various spatial and temporal scales, the N_2O measurements are strongly affected by the concentration variations in the upper troposphere and stratosphere

Drivers of column-average CO_2 variability at Southern Hemispheric Total Carbon Column Observing Network sites

We investigate factors that drive the variability in total column CO_2 at the Total Carbon Column Observing Network sites in the Southern Hemisphere using fluxes tagged by process and by source region from the CarbonTracker analysed product as well as the Simple Biosphere model. We show that the terrestrial biosphere is the largest driver of variability in the Southern Hemisphere column CO_2. However, it does not dominate in the same fashion as in the Northern Hemisphere. Local- and hemispheric-scale biomass burning can also play an important role, particularly at the tropical site, Darwin. The magnitude of seasonal variability in the column-average dry-air mole fraction of CO_2, X_CO_2, is also much smaller in the Southern Hemisphere and comparable in magnitude to the annual increase. Comparison of measurements to the model simulations highlights that there is some discrepancy between the two time series, especially in the early part of the Darwin data record. We show that this mismatch is most likely due to erroneously estimated local fluxes in the Australian tropical region, which are associated with enhanced photosynthesis caused by early rainfall during the tropical monsoon season

Fear of Birth Defects Is a Major Barrier to Soil-Transmitted Helminth Treatment (STH) for Pregnant Women in the Philippines

The World Health Organization recommends anthelminthic treatment for pregnant women after the first trimester in soil-transmitted helminth (STH) endemic regions to prevent adverse maternal-fetal consequences. Although studies have shown the high prevalence of infection in the Philippines, no research has evaluated deworming practices. We hypothesized that pregnant women are not receiving deworming treatment and we aimed to identify barriers to World Health Organization guideline implementation. We conducted key informant interviews with local Department of Health (DOH) administrators, focus group discussions with nurses, midwives, and health care workers, and knowledge, attitudes, and practices surveys with women of reproductive age to elicit perspectives about deworming during pregnancy. Key informant interviews revealed that healthcare workers were not deworming pregnant women due to inadequate drug supply, infrastructure and personnel as well as fear of teratogenicity. Focus group discussions showed that healthcare workers similarly had not implemented guidelines due to infrastructure challenges and concerns for fetal malformations. The majority of local women believed that STH treatment causes side effects (74.8%) as well as maternal harm (67.3%) and fetal harm (77.9%). Women who were willing to take anthelminthics while pregnant had significantly greater knowledge as demonstrated by higher Treatment Scores (mean rank 146.92 versus 103.1, z = −4.40, p<0.001) and higher Birth Defect Scores (mean rank 128.09 versus 108.65, z = −2.43, p = 0.015). This study concludes that World Health Organization guidelines are not being implemented in the Philippines. Infrastructure, specific protocols, and education for providers and patients regarding anthelminthic treatment are necessary for the successful prevention of STH morbidity and mortality among pregnant women