Evaluation of ecosystem-based marine management strategies based on risk assessment

Abstract This study presents a comprehensive and generic framework that provides a typology for the identification and selection of consistently defined ecosystem-based management measures and allows a coherent evaluation of these measures based on their performance to achieve policy objectives. The performance is expressed in terms of their reduction of risk of an adverse impact on the marine ecosystem. This typology consists of two interlinked aspects of a measure, i.e. the “Focus” and the “Type”. The “Focus” is determined by the part of the impact chain (Driver–Pressure–State) the measure is supposed to mitigate or counteract. The “Type” represents the physical measure itself in terms of how it affects the impact chain directly; we distinguish Spatio-temporal distribution controls, Input and Output controls, Remediation and Restoration measures. The performance of these measures in terms of their reduction in risk of adverse impacts was assessed based on an explicit consideration of three time horizons: past, present and future. Application of the framework in an integrated management strategy evaluation of a suite of measures, shows that depending on the time horizon, different measures perform best. “Past” points to measures targeting persistent pressures (e.g. marine litter) from past activities. “Present” favors measures targeting a driver (e.g. fisheries) that has a high likelihood of causing adverse impacts. “Future” involves impacts that both have a high likelihood of an adverse impact, as well as a long time to return to pre-impacted condition after the implementation of appropriate management, e.g. those caused by permanent infrastructure or persistent pressures such as marine litter or specific types of pollution

Complementarity of Spike- and Rate-Based Dynamics of Neural Systems

Relationships between spiking-neuron and rate-based approaches to the dynamics of neural assemblies are explored by analyzing a model system that can be treated by both methods, with the rate-based method further averaged over multiple neurons to give a neural-field approach. The system consists of a chain of neurons, each with simple spiking dynamics that has a known rate-based equivalent. The neurons are linked by propagating activity that is described in terms of a spatial interaction strength with temporal delays that reflect distances between neurons; feedback via a separate delay loop is also included because such loops also exist in real brains. These interactions are described using a spatiotemporal coupling function that can carry either spikes or rates to provide coupling between neurons. Numerical simulation of corresponding spike- and rate-based methods with these compatible couplings then allows direct comparison between the dynamics arising from these approaches. The rate-based dynamics can reproduce two different forms of oscillation that are present in the spike-based model: spiking rates of individual neurons and network-induced modulations of spiking rate that occur if network interactions are sufficiently strong. Depending on conditions either mode of oscillation can dominate the spike-based dynamics and in some situations, particularly when the ratio of the frequencies of these two modes is integer or half-integer, the two can both be present and interact with each other

Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infection dynamics: re-infections, recrudescences and relapses

Background: In malaria endemic populations, complex patterns of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage infection dynamics may be observed. Genotyping samples from longitudinal cohort studies for merozoite surface protein (msp) variants increases the information available in the data, allowing multiple infecting parasite clones in a single individual to be identified. msp genotyped samples from two longitudinal cohorts in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Thailand were analysed using a statistical model where the times of acquisition and clearance of each clone in every individual were estimated using a process of data augmentation. Results: For the populations analysed, the duration of blood-stage P. falciparum infection was estimated as 36 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 29, 44) days in PNG, and 135 (95% CrI 94, 191) days in Thailand. Experiments on simulated data indicated that it was not possible to accurately estimate the duration of blood-stage P. vivax infections due to the lack of identifiability between a single blood-stage infection and multiple, sequential blood-stage infections caused by relapses. Despite this limitation, the method and data point towards short duration of blood-stage P. vivax infection with a lower bound of 24 days in PNG, and 29 days in Thailand. On an individual level, P. vivax recurrences cannot be definitively classified into re-infections, recrudescences or relapses, but a probabilistic relapse phenotype can be assigned to each P. vivax sample, allowing investigation of the association between epidemiological covariates and the incidence of relapses. Conclusion: The statistical model developed here provides a useful new tool for in-depth analysis of malaria data from longitudinal cohort studies, and future application to data sets with multi-locus genotyping will allow more detailed investigation of infection dynamics

Effects of ecstasy/polydrug use on memory for associative information

Rationale Associative learning underpins behaviours that are fundamental to the everyday functioning of the individual. Evidence pointing to learning deficits in recreational drug users merits further examination. Objectives A word pair learning task was administered to examine associative learning processes in ecstasy/polydrug users. Methods After assignment to either single or divided attention conditions, 44 ecstasy/polydrug users and 48 non-users were presented with 80 word pairs at encoding. Following this, four types of stimuli were presented at the recognition phase: the words as originally paired (old pairs), previously presented words in different pairings (conjunction pairs), old words paired with new words, and pairs of new words (not presented previously). The task was to identify which of the stimuli were intact old pairs. Results Ecstasy/ploydrug users produced significantly more false-positive responses overall compared to non-users. Increased long-term frequency of ecstasy use was positively associated with the propensity to produce false-positive responses. It was also associated with a more liberal signal detection theory decision criterion value. Measures of long term and recent cannabis use were also associated with these same word pair learning outcome measures. Conjunction word pairs, irrespective of drug use, generated the highest level of false-positive responses and significantly more false-positive responses were made in the divided attention condition compared to the single attention condition. Conclusions Overall, the results suggest that long-term ecstasy exposure may induce a deficit in associative learning and this may be in part a consequence of users adopting a more liberal decision criterion value

Comparison of the CDC Backpack aspirator and the Prokopack aspirator for sampling indoor- and outdoor-resting mosquitoes in southern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND\ud \ud Resting mosquitoes can easily be collected using an aspirating device. The most commonly used mechanical aspirator is the CDC Backpack aspirator. Recently, a simple, and low-cost aspirator called the Prokopack has been devised and proved to have comparable performance. The following study evaluates the Prokopack aspirator compared to the CDC backpack aspirator when sampling resting mosquitoes in rural Tanzania.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud Mosquitoes were sampled in- and outdoors of 48 typical rural African households using both aspirators. The aspirators were rotated between collectors and households in a randomized, Latin Square design. Outdoor collections were performed using artificial resting places (large barrel and car tyre), underneath the outdoor kitchen (kibanda) roof and from a drop-net. Data were analysed with generalized linear models.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud The number of mosquitoes collected using the CDC Backpack and the Prokopack aspirator were not significantly different both in- and outdoors (indoors p = 0.735; large barrel p = 0.867; car tyre p = 0.418; kibanda p = 0.519). The Prokopack was superior for sampling of drop-nets due to its smaller size. The number mosquitoes collected per technician was more consistent when using the Prokopack aspirator. The Prokopack was more user-friendly: technicians preferred using the it over the CDC backpack aspirator as it weighs considerably less, retains its charge for longer and is easier to manoeuvre.\ud \ud CONCLUSIONS\ud \ud The Prokopack proved in the field to be more advantageous than the CDC Backpack aspirator. It can be self assembled using simple, low-cost and easily attainable materials. This device is a useful tool for researchers or vector-control surveillance programs operating in rural Africa, as it is far simpler and quicker than traditional means of sampling resting mosquitoes. Further longitudinal evaluations of the Prokopack aspirator versus the gold standard pyrethrum spray catch for indoor resting catches are recommended

Role of the mesoamygdaloid dopamine projection in emotional learning

Amygdala dopamine is crucially involved in the acquisition of Pavlovian associations, as measured via conditioned approach to the location of the unconditioned stimulus (US). However, learning begins before skeletomotor output, so this study assessed whether amygdala dopamine is also involved in earlier 'emotional' learning. A variant of the conditioned reinforcement (CR) procedure was validated where training was restricted to curtail the development of selective conditioned approach to the US location, and effects of amygdala dopamine manipulations before training or later CR testing assessed. Experiment 1a presented a light paired (CS+ group) or unpaired (CS- group) with a US. There were 1, 2 or 10 sessions, 4 trials per session. Then, the US was removed, and two novel levers presented. One lever (CR+) presented the light, and lever pressing was recorded. Experiment 1b also included a tone stimulus. Experiment 2 applied intra-amygdala R(+) 7-OH-DPAT (10 nmol/1.0 A mu l/side) before two training sessions (Experiment 2a) or a CR session (Experiment 2b). For Experiments 1a and 1b, the CS+ group preferred the CR+ lever across all sessions. Conditioned alcove approach during 1 or 2 training sessions or associated CR tests was low and nonspecific. In Experiment 2a, R(+) 7-OH-DPAT before training greatly diminished lever pressing during a subsequent CR test, preferentially on the CR+ lever. For Experiment 2b, R(+) 7-OH-DPAT infusions before the CR test also reduced lever pressing. Manipulations of amygdala dopamine impact the earliest stage of learning in which emotional reactions may be most prevalent

Brain Rhythms Reveal a Hierarchical Network Organization

Recordings of ongoing neural activity with EEG and MEG exhibit oscillations of specific frequencies over a non-oscillatory background. The oscillations appear in the power spectrum as a collection of frequency bands that are evenly spaced on a logarithmic scale, thereby preventing mutual entrainment and cross-talk. Over the last few years, experimental, computational and theoretical studies have made substantial progress on our understanding of the biophysical mechanisms underlying the generation of network oscillations and their interactions, with emphasis on the role of neuronal synchronization. In this paper we ask a very different question. Rather than investigating how brain rhythms emerge, or whether they are necessary for neural function, we focus on what they tell us about functional brain connectivity. We hypothesized that if we were able to construct abstract networks, or “virtual brains”, whose dynamics were similar to EEG/MEG recordings, those networks would share structural features among themselves, and also with real brains. Applying mathematical techniques for inverse problems, we have reverse-engineered network architectures that generate characteristic dynamics of actual brains, including spindles and sharp waves, which appear in the power spectrum as frequency bands superimposed on a non-oscillatory background dominated by low frequencies. We show that all reconstructed networks display similar topological features (e.g. structural motifs) and dynamics. We have also reverse-engineered putative diseased brains (epileptic and schizophrenic), in which the oscillatory activity is altered in different ways, as reported in clinical studies. These reconstructed networks show consistent alterations of functional connectivity and dynamics. In particular, we show that the complexity of the network, quantified as proposed by Tononi, Sporns and Edelman, is a good indicator of brain fitness, since virtual brains modeling diseased states display lower complexity than virtual brains modeling normal neural function. We finally discuss the implications of our results for the neurobiology of health and disease

Oxford nanopore MinION sequencing enables rapid whole genome assembly of rickettsia typhi in a resource-limited setting

The infrastructure challenges and costs of next-generation sequencing have been largely overcome, for many sequencing applications, by Oxford Nanopore Technologies’ portable MinION sequencer. However, the question remains open whether MinION-based bacterial whole genome sequencing is by itself sufficient for the accurate assessment of phylogenetic and epidemiological relationships between isolates and whether such tasks can be undertaken in resource-limited settings. To investigate this question, we sequenced the genome of an isolate of Rickettsia typhi, an important and neglected cause of fever across much of the tropics and subtropics, for which only three genomic sequences previously existed. We prepared and sequenced libraries on a MinION in Vientiane, Lao PDR, using v9.5 chemistry, and in parallel, we sequenced the same isolate on the Illumina platform in a genomics laboratory in the United Kingdom. The MinION sequence reads yielded a single contiguous assembly, in which the addition of Illumina data revealed 226 base-substitution and 5,856 indel errors. The combined assembly represents the first complete genome sequence of a human R. typhi isolate collected in the last 50 years and differed from the genomes of existing strains collected over a 90-year time period at very few sites, with no rearrangements. Filtering based on the known error profile of MinION data improved the accuracy of the nanopore-only assembly. However, the frequency of false-positive errors remained greater than true sequence divergence from recorded sequences. Although nanopore-only sequencing cannot yet recover phylogenetic signals in R. typhi, such an approach may be applicable for more diverse organism

Oil elite networks in a transforming global oil market

This article analyses oil elite formation in light of the wider transformation that is taking place in the global oil order due to the rise of powers from the Global South, including Russia: in particular, the expansion and integration of the state-owned oil companies into the global oil market. This is done by analysing the networks that the directors of the world's largest oil companies create through their affiliations with a) other corporations, b) policy planning bodies and c) with the state. The most important finding is that the increased cooperation between the Western private oil companies and the non-Western state-owned oil companies has not yet translated into increased integration between their respective elite networks. It is argued that this indicates we are witnessing a transition towards a more multi-polar global oil order that increasingly needs to take into account the rising powers of the Global South. © The Author(s) 2012

Bromocarbons in the tropical coastal and open ocean atmosphere during the 2009 Prime Expedition Scientific Cruise (PESC-09)

Abstract. Atmospheric concentrations of very short-lived species (VSLS) bromocarbons, including CHBr3, CH2Br2, CHCl2Br, CHClBr2, and CH2BrCl, were measured in the Strait of Malacca and the South China and Sulu–Sulawesi seas during a two-month research cruise in June–July 2009. The highest bromocarbon concentrations were found in the Strait of Malacca, with smaller enhancements in coastal regions of northern Borneo. CHBr3 was the most abundant bromocarbon, ranging from 5.2 pmol mol−1 in the Strait of Malacca to 0.94 pmol mol−1 over the open ocean. Other bromocarbons showed lower concentrations, in the range of 0.8–1.3 pmol mol−1 for CH2Br2, 0.1–0.5 pmol mol−1 for CHCl2Br, and 0.1–0.4 pmol mol−1 for CHClBr2. There was no significant correlation between bromocarbons and in situ chlorophyll a, but positive correlations with both MODIS and SeaWiFS satellite chlorophyll a. Together, the short-lived bromocarbons contribute an average of 8.9 pmol mol−1 (range 5.2–21.4 pmol mol−1) to tropospheric bromine loading, which is similar to that found in previous studies from global sampling networks (Montzka et al., 2011). Statistical tests showed strong Spearman correlations between brominated compounds, suggesting a common source. Log–log plots of CHBr3/CH2Br2 versus CHBr2Cl/CH2Br2 show that both chemical reactions and dilution into the background atmosphere contribute to the composition of these halocarbons at each sampling point. We have used the correlation to make a crude estimate of the regional emissions of CHBr3 and to derive a value of 32 Gg yr−1 for the Southeast (SE) Asian region (10° N–20° S, 90–150° E). Finally, we note that satellite-derived chlorophyll a (chl a) products do not always agree well with in situ measurements, particularly in coastal regions of high turbidity, meaning that satellite chl a may not always be a good proxy for marine productivity. We would like to thank MOSTI (Malaysian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation). for giving opportunities and financial support for the University of Malaya (UM) and Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia to participate in this scientific cruise, and other Malaysian public universities and agencies who helped during sampling. The Malaysian Royal Navy is thanked for their help and assistance in all aspects of the cruise. We also thank the SHIVA European FP7 project (grant 226224), NERC, NERC-NCAS and the British Council, through a PMI2 grant, for their support. Neil Harris would like to thank NERC for his Research Fellowship; Emma Leedham and Matt Ashfold thank NERC for studentships, and Doreena Dominick, Lin Chin Yik, Fatimah Ahamad and Nur Ily Hamizah for their assistance and the Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia (KPT’s) ERGS grant ER025-2013A. Finally, we also would like to thank Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) for the ICONIC-2013-004 grant, MOSTI e-science grant 04-01-02-SF-0752 for Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), UKM GGPM-2013-080 and UKM DPP-2014-162 and GUP-2013-057 for financial support.This paper was originally published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 14, 8137-8148, doi:10.5194/acp-14-8137-2014, 201