Ash generation and distribution from the April-May 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland

The 39-day long eruption at the summit of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in April–May 2010 was of modest size but ash was widely dispersed. By combining data from ground surveys and remote sensing we show that the erupted material was 4.8±1.2·1011 kg (benmoreite and trachyte, dense rock equivalent volume 0.18±0.05 km3). About 20% was lava and water-transported tephra, 80% was airborne tephra (bulk volume 0.27 km3) transported by 3–10 km high plumes. The airborne tephra was mostly fine ash (diameter <1000 µm). At least 7·1010 kg (70 Tg) was very fine ash (<28 µm), several times more than previously estimated via satellite retrievals. About 50% of the tephra fell in Iceland with the remainder carried towards south and east, detected over ~7 million km2 in Europe and the North Atlantic. Of order 1010 kg (2%) are considered to have been transported longer than 600–700 km with <108 kg (<0.02%) reaching mainland Europe

Gradual caldera collapse at Bárdarbunga volcano, Iceland, regulated by lateral magma outflow

Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with a collapse of the roof of a crustal magma reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century, and the lack of detailed observations has obscured insight into the mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption.We usemultiparameter geophysical and geochemical data to show that the 110-squarekilometer and 65-meter-deep collapse of Bárdarbunga caldera in 2014-2015 was initiated through withdrawal of magma, and lateral migration through a 48-kilometers-long dike, from a 12-kilometers deep reservoir. Interaction between the pressure exerted by the subsiding reservoir roof and the physical properties of the subsurface flow path explain the gradual, nearexponential decline of both collapse rate and the intensity of the 180-day-long eruption

Unexpected large eruptions from buoyant magma bodies within viscoelastic crust

Large volume effusive eruptions with relatively minor observed precursory signals are at odds with widely used models to interpret volcano deformation. Here we propose a new modelling framework that resolves this discrepancy by accounting for magma buoyancy, viscoelastic crustal properties, and sustained magma channels. At low magma accumulation rates, the stability of deep magma bodies is governed by the magma-host rock density contrast and the magma body thickness. During eruptions, inelastic processes including magma mush erosion and thermal effects, can form a sustained channel that supports magma flow, driven by the pressure difference between the magma body and surface vents. At failure onset, it may be difficult to forecast the final eruption volume; pressure in a magma body may drop well below the lithostatic load, create under-pressure and initiate a caldera collapse, despite only modest precursors

Meteorological Controls on Local and Regional Volcanic Ash Dispersal

Volcanic ash has the capacity to impact human health, livestock, crops and infrastructure, including international air traffic. For recent major eruptions, information on the volcanic ash plume has been combined with relatively coarse-resolution meteorological model output to provide simulations of regional ash dispersal, with reasonable success on the scale of hundreds of kilometres. However, to predict and mitigate these impacts locally, significant improvements in modelling capability are required. Here, we present results from a dynamic meteorological-ash-dispersion model configured with sufficient resolution to represent local topographic and convectively-forced flows. We focus on an archetypal volcanic setting, Soufrière, St Vincent, and use the exceptional historical records of the 1902 and 1979 eruptions to challenge our simulations. We find that the evolution and characteristics of ash deposition on St Vincent and nearby islands can be accurately simulated when the wind shear associated with the trade wind inversion and topographically-forced flows are represented. The wind shear plays a primary role and topographic flows a secondary role on ash distribution on local to regional scales. We propose a new explanation for the downwind ash deposition maxima, commonly observed in volcanic eruptions, as resulting from the detailed forcing of mesoscale meteorology on the ash plume

Comprehensive resequence analysis of a 136 kb region of human chromosome 8q24 associated with prostate and colon cancers

Recently, genome-wide association studies have identified loci across a segment of chromosome 8q24 (128,100,000–128,700,000) associated with the risk of breast, colon and prostate cancers. At least three regions of 8q24 have been independently associated with prostate cancer risk; the most centromeric of which appears to be population specific. Haplotypes in two contiguous but independent loci, marked by rs6983267 and rs1447295, have been identified in the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility project (http://cgems.cancer.gov), which genotyped more than 5,000 prostate cancer cases and 5,000 controls of European origin. The rs6983267 locus is also strongly associated with colorectal cancer. To ascertain a comprehensive catalog of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across the two regions, we conducted a resequence analysis of 136 kb (chr8: 128,473,000–128,609,802) using the Roche/454 next-generation sequencing technology in 39 prostate cancer cases and 40 controls of European origin. We have characterized a comprehensive catalog of common (MAF > 1%) SNPs within this region, including 442 novel SNPs and have determined the pattern of linkage disequilibrium across the region. Our study has generated a detailed map of genetic variation across the region, which should be useful for choosing SNPs for fine mapping of association signals in 8q24 and investigations of the functional consequences of select common variants

Low oxygen saturation and mortality in an adult cohort; the Tromsø Study

Published version, also available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12890-015-0003-5Background: Oxygen saturation has been shown in risk score models to predict mortality in emergency medicine. The aim of this study was to determine whether low oxygen saturation measured by a single-point measurement by pulse oximetry (SpO2) is associated with increased mortality in the general adult population. Methods: Pulse oximetry was performed in 5,152 participants in a cross-sectional survey in Tromsø, Norway, in 2001–2002 (“Tromsø 5”). Ten-year follow-up data for all-cause mortality and cause of death were obtained from the National Population and the Cause of Death Registries, respectively. Cause of death was grouped into four categories: cardiovascular disease, cancer except lung cancer, pulmonary disease, and others. SpO2 categories were assessed as predictors for all-cause mortality and death using Cox proportional-hazards regression models after correcting for age, sex, smoking history, body mass index (BMI), C-reactive protein level, self-reported diseases, respiratory symptoms, and spirometry results. Results: The mean age was 65.8 years, and 56% were women. During the follow-up, 1,046 (20.3%) participants died. The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals) for all-cause mortality were 1.99 (1.33–2.96) for SpO2 ≤ 92% and 1.36 (1.15–1.60) for SpO2 93–95%, compared with SpO2 ≥ 96%. In the multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression models that included self-reported diseases, respiratory symptoms, smoking history, BMI, and CRP levels as the explanatory variables, SpO2 remained a significant predictor of all-cause mortality. However, after including forced expiratory volume in 1 s percent predicted (FEV1% predicted), this association was no longer significant. Mortality caused by pulmonary diseases was significantly associated with SpO2 even when FEV1% predicted was included in the model. Conclusions: Low oxygen saturation was independently associated with increased all-cause mortality and mortality caused by pulmonary diseases. When FEV1% predicted was included in the analysis, the strength of the association weakened but was still statistically significant for mortality caused by pulmonary diseases

Ice-confined construction of a large basaltic volcano—Austurfjöll massif, Askja, Iceland

Austurfjöll is the largest basaltic glaciovolcanic massif at Askja volcano (Central Iceland), and through detailed studies of its volcanological and geochemical characteristics, we provide a detailed account of the sequence and structure of the ice-confined construction of a large Icelandic basaltic volcano. In particular, Austurfjöll represents a geometry of vents, and resulting glaciovolcanic morphology, not previously documented in ice-confined basaltic volcanoes. Austurfjöll was constructed during two major phases of basaltic volcanism, via seven eruptive episodes through disperse fissure-dominated eruptions. The earliest episode involved a rare and poorly exposed example of subaerial activity, and this was succeeded by six episodes involving the eruption of ice-confined pillow lavas and numerous overlapping fissure eruptions of phreatomagmatic tephra. Evidence of local subaerial lavas and tephras indicates the local growth of eruptive centers above englacial lake levels, and subsequent flooding, but no prolonged subaerial activity. Localized ice-contact facies, paleowater levels, and diamictons indicate the position and thickness of the ice was variable during the construction of Austurfjöll, and eruptive activity likely occurred in multiple and variable level meltwater lakes during the last glacial period. Lithofacies evidence including gradational transitions from effusive to explosive deposits, superposition of fragmental facies above coherent facies, and drainage channels suggest that changes in eruptive style were driven largely by external factors such as drainage and the increasing elevation of the massif. This study emphasizes the unique character of Austurfjöll, being composed of large pillow lava sheets, numerous (> 40) overlapping glaciovolcanic tindars, and only localized emergent deposits, as a product of its prolonged ice-confined eruptive history, contrasts with previous descriptions of tuyas and tindars

Practising an explosive eruption in Iceland: outcomes from a European exercise

A 3 day exercise simulating unrest and a large explosive eruption at Katla volcano, Iceland, was conducted in January 2016. A large volume of simulated data based on a complex, but realistic eruption scenario was compiled in advance and then transmitted to exercise participants in near-real time over the course of the exercise. The scenario was designed to test the expertise and procedures of the local institutions in charge of warning and responding to volcanic hazards, namely the volcano observatory, national civil protection, and the local university-science sector, as well as their interactions with the European science community and the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. This exercise was the first of this magnitude and scope in Iceland and has revealed many successful developments introduced since the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grímsvötn eruptions. Following the exercise, 90% of participants said that they felt better prepared for a future eruption. As with any exercise, it also identified areas where further development is required and improvements can be made to procedures. Seven key recommendations are made to further develop capability and enhance the collaboration between the volcano observatory, volcano research institutions and civil protection authorities. These recommendations cover topics including notification of responders, authoritative messaging, data sharing and media interaction, and are more broadly applicable to volcanic institutions elsewhere. Lessons and suggestions for how to run a large-scale volcanic exercise are given and could be adopted by those planning to rehearse their own response procedures.This work was funded by the European Community’s FP7 Programme grant 308377 (Project FUTUREVOLC).Peer Reviewe

Evaluation of Candidate Stromal Epithelial Cross-Talk Genes Identifies Association between Risk of Serous Ovarian Cancer and TERT, a Cancer Susceptibility “Hot-Spot”

We hypothesized that variants in genes expressed as a consequence of interactions between ovarian cancer cells and the host micro-environment could contribute to cancer susceptibility. We therefore used a two-stage approach to evaluate common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 173 genes involved in stromal epithelial interactions in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC). In the discovery stage, cases with epithelial ovarian cancer (n = 675) and controls (n = 1,162) were genotyped at 1,536 SNPs using an Illumina GoldenGate assay. Based on Positive Predictive Value estimates, three SNPs—PODXL rs1013368, ITGA6 rs13027811, and MMP3 rs522616—were selected for replication using TaqMan genotyping in up to 3,059 serous invasive cases and 8,905 controls from 16 OCAC case-control studies. An additional 18 SNPs with Pper-allele<0.05 in the discovery stage were selected for replication in a subset of five OCAC studies (n = 1,233 serous invasive cases; n = 3,364 controls). The discovery stage associations in PODXL, ITGA6, and MMP3 were attenuated in the larger replication set (adj. Pper-allele≥0.5). However genotypes at TERT rs7726159 were associated with ovarian cancer risk in the smaller, five-study replication study (Pper-allele = 0.03). Combined analysis of the discovery and replication sets for this TERT SNP showed an increased risk of serous ovarian cancer among non-Hispanic whites [adj. ORper-allele 1.14 (1.04–1.24) p = 0.003]. Our study adds to the growing evidence that, like the 8q24 locus, the telomerase reverse transcriptase locus at 5p15.33, is a general cancer susceptibility locus