The effects of changing winds and temperatures on the oceanography of the Ross Sea in the 21st century

The Ross Sea is critically important in regulating Antarctic sea ice and is biologically productive, which makes changes in the region\u27s physical environment of global concern. We examined the effects of projected changes in atmospheric temperatures and winds on aspects of the ocean circulation likely important to primary production using a high-resolution sea ice-ocean-ice shelf model of the Ross Sea. The modeled summer sea-ice concentrations decreased by 56% by 2050 and 78% by 2100. The duration of shallow mixed layers over the continental shelf increased by 8.5 and 19.2days in 2050 and 2100, and the mean summer mixed layer depths decreased by 12 and 44%. These results suggest that the annual phytoplankton production in the future will increase and become more diatomaceous. Other components of the Ross Sea food web will likely be severely disrupted, creating significant but unpredictable impacts on the ocean\u27s most pristine ecosystem. Key Points Ross Sea will be modified in ice-free duration and summer ice concentrations Modeled summer mixed layers decreased by 26 and 46% in 50 and 100 years The food web will undergo severe disruptions in the coming centur

Effects of Projected Changes in Wind, Atmospheric Temperature, and Freshwater Inflow on the Ross Sea

A 5-km horizontal resolution regional ocean-sea ice-ice shelf model of the Ross Sea is used to examine the effects of changes in wind strength, air temperature, and increased meltwater input on the formation of high-salinity shelf water (HSSW), on-shelf transport and vertical mixing of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and its transformation into modified CDW (MCDW), and basal melt of the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS). A 20% increase in wind speed, with no other atmospheric changes, reduced summer sea ice minimum area by 20%, opposite the observed trend of the past three decades. Increased winds with spatially uniform, reduced atmospheric temperatures increased summer sea ice concentrations, on-shelf transport of CDW, vertical mixing of MCDW, HSSW volume, and (albeit small) RIS basal melt. Winds and atmospheric temperatures from the SRES A1B scenario forcing of the MPI ECHAM5 model decreased on-shelf transport of CDW and vertical mixing of MCDW for 2046-61 and 2085-2100 relative to the end of the twentieth century. The RIS basal melt increased slightly by 2046-61 (9%) and 2085-2100 (13%). Advection of lower-salinity water onto the continental shelf did not significantly affect sea ice extent for the 2046-61 or 2085-2100 simulations. However, freshening reduces on-shelf transport of CDW, vertical mixing of MCDW, and the volume of HSSW produced. The reduced vertical mixing of MCDW, while partially balanced by the reduced on-shelf transport of CDW, enhances the RIS basal melt rate relative to the twentieth-century simulation for 2046-61 (13%) and 2085-2100 (17%)

Modeling the Seasonal Cycle of Iron and Carbon Fluxes in the Amundsen Sea Polynya, Antarctica

The Amundsen Sea Polynya (ASP) is distinguished by having the highest net primary production per unit area in the coastal Antarctic. Recent studies have related this high productivity to the presence of fast-melting ice shelves, but the mechanisms involved are not well understood. In this study we describe the first numerical model of the ASP to represent explicitly the ocean-ice interactions, nitrogen and iron cycles, and the coastal circulation at high resolution. The study focuses on the seasonal cycle of iron and carbon, and the results are broadly consistent with field observations collected during the summer of 2010–2011. The simulated biogeochemical cycle is strongly controlled by light availability(dictated by sea ice, phytoplankton self-shading, and variable sunlight). The micronutrient iron exhibits strong seasonality, where scavenging by biogenic particles and remineralization play large compensating roles. Lateral fluxes of iron are also important to the iron budget, and our results confirm the key role played by inputs of dissolved iron from the buoyancy-driven circulation of melting ice shelf cavities (the“meltwater pump”). The model suggests that westward flowing coastal circulation plays two important roles: it provides additional iron to the ASP and it collects particulate organic matter generated by the bloom and transports it to the west of the ASP. As a result, maps of vertical particulate organic matter fluxes show highest fluxes in shelf regions located west of the productive central ASP. Overall, these model results improve our mechanistic understanding of the ASP bloom, while suggesting testable hypotheses for future field efforts

Multiplatform, multidisciplinary investigations of the impacts of Modified Circumpolar Deep Water in the Ross Sea, Antarctica

In 2010-2011, three projects combined to characterize the temporal and spatial distributions of Modified circumpolar Deep Water (MCDW) in the Ross Sea using icebreaker-based sampling, gliders, instrumented seals, and hindcasts from a numerical circulation model. The fieldwork cearly identified MCDW throughout the Ross Sea, and the lata were used to determine its influence on potential heat.md nutrient inputs and biotic distributions. Furthermore, the numerical simulations confirm its apparent trajectory and location. Substantial small-scale variability in oceanographic and biological distributions suggests that such variability may play an important role in biogeochemical cycles. Data from the three projects provide a view of hydrographic variability in the Ross Sea that is impossible to obtain using traditional sampling. Multiplatform investigations are promising approaches to future polar experiments where logistical considerations are of paramount important

Monolithic simulation of convection-coupled phase-change - verification and reproducibility

Phase interfaces in melting and solidification processes are strongly affected by the presence of convection in the liquid. One way of modeling their transient evolution is to couple an incompressible flow model to an energy balance in enthalpy formulation. Two strong nonlinearities arise, which account for the viscosity variation between phases and the latent heat of fusion at the phase interface. The resulting coupled system of PDE's can be solved by a single-domain semi-phase-field, variable viscosity, finite element method with monolithic system coupling and global Newton linearization. A robust computational model for realistic phase-change regimes furthermore requires a flexible implementation based on sophisticated mesh adaptivity. In this article, we present first steps towards implementing such a computational model into a simulation tool which we call Phaseflow. Phaseflow utilizes the finite element software FEniCS, which includes a dual-weighted residual method for goal-oriented adaptive mesh refinement. Phaseflow is an open-source, dimension-independent implementation that, upon an appropriate parameter choice, reduces to classical benchmark situations including the lid-driven cavity and the Stefan problem. We present and discuss numerical results for these, an octadecane PCM convection-coupled melting benchmark, and a preliminary 3D convection-coupled melting example, demonstrating the flexible implementation. Though being preliminary, the latter is, to our knowledge, the first published 3D result for this method. In our work, we especially emphasize reproducibility and provide an easy-to-use portable software container using Docker.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figure

Mechanisms driving variability in the ocean forcing of Pine Island Glacier

Pine Island Glacier (PIG) terminates in a rapidly melting ice shelf, and ocean circulation and temperature are implicated in the retreat and growing contribution to sea level rise of PIG and nearby glaciers. However, the variability of the ocean forcing of PIG has been poorly constrained due to a lack of multi-year observations. Here we show, using a unique record close to the Pine Island Ice Shelf (PIIS), that there is considerable oceanic variability at seasonal and interannual timescales, including a pronounced cold period from October 2011 to May 2013. This variability can be largely explained by two processes: cumulative ocean surface heat fluxes and sea ice formation close to PIIS; and interannual reversals in ocean currents and associated heat transport within Pine Island Bay, driven by a combination of local and remote forcing. Local atmospheric forcing therefore plays an important role in driving oceanic variability close to PIIS

Evidence of an active volcanic heat source beneath the Pine Island Glacier

Tectonic landforms reveal that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) lies atop a major volcanic rift system. However, identifying subglacial volcanism is challenging. Here we show geochemical evidence of a volcanic heat source upstream of the fast-melting Pine Island Ice Shelf, documented by seawater helium isotope ratios at the front of the Ice Shelf cavity. The localization of mantle helium to glacial meltwater reveals that volcanic heat induces melt beneath the grounded glacier and feeds the subglacial hydrological network crossing the grounding line. The observed transport of mantle helium out of the Ice Shelf cavity indicates that volcanic heat is supplied to the grounded glacier at a rate of ~ 2500 ± 1700 MW, which is ca. half as large as the active Grimsvötn volcano on Iceland. Our finding of a substantial volcanic heat source beneath a major WAIS glacier highlights the need to understand subglacial volcanism, its hydrologic interaction with the marine margins, and its potential role in the future stability of the WAIS

Holocene sea ice variability driven by wind and polynya efficiency in the Ross Sea

The causes of the recent increase in Antarctic sea ice extent, characterised by large regional contrasts and decadal variations, remain unclear. In the Ross Sea, where such a sea ice increase is reported, 50% of the sea ice is produced within wind-sustained latent-heat polynyas. Combining information from marine diatom records and sea salt sodium and water isotope ice core records, we here document contrasting patterns in sea ice variations between coastal and open sea areas in Western Ross Sea over the current interglacial period. Since about 3600 years before present, an increase in the efficiency of regional latent-heat polynyas resulted in more coastal sea ice, while sea ice extent decreased overall. These past changes coincide with remarkable optima or minima in the abundances of penguins, silverfish and seal remains, confirming the high sensitivity of marine ecosystems to environmental and especially coastal sea ice conditions

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5◦C global warming

Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2°C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the last decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5-2.0°C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance elevation feedback, while for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening