The changing nature of risk and risk management: the challenge of borders, uncertainty and resilience

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Neutrino masses from new generations

We reconsider the possibility that Majorana masses for the three known neutrinos are generated radiatively by the presence of a fourth generation and one right-handed neutrino with Yukawa couplings and a Majorana mass term. We find that the observed light neutrino mass hierarchy is not compatible with low energy universality bounds in this minimal scenario, but all present data can be accommodated with five generations and two right-handed neutrinos. Within this framework, we explore the parameter space regions which are currently allowed and could lead to observable effects in neutrinoless double beta decay, $\mu - e$ conversion in nuclei and $\mu \rightarrow e \gamma$ experiments. We also discuss the detection prospects at LHC.Comment: 28 pages, 4 figures. Version to be published. Some typos corrected. Improved figures 3 and

Fine Tuning in General Gauge Mediation

We study the fine-tuning problem in the context of general gauge mediation. Numerical analyses toward for relaxing fine-tuning are presented. We analyse the problem in typical three cases of the messenger scale, that is, GUT ($2\times10^{16}$ GeV), intermediate ($10^{10}$ GeV), and relatively low energy ($10^6$ GeV) scales. In each messenger scale, the parameter space reducing the degree of tuning as around 10% is found. Certain ratios among gluino mass, wino mass and soft scalar masses are favorable. It is shown that the favorable region becomes narrow as the messenger scale becomes lower, and tachyonic initial conditions of stop masses at the messenger scale are favored to relax the fine-tuning problem for the relatively low energy messenger scale. Our spectra would also be important from the viewpoint of the $\mu-B$ problem.Comment: 22 pages, 16 figures, comment adde

Investigating the missing data mechanism in quality of life outcomes: a comparison of approaches

Background: Missing data is classified as missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR) or missing not at random (MNAR). Knowing the mechanism is useful in identifying the most appropriate analysis. The first aim was to compare different methods for identifying this missing data mechanism to determine if they gave consistent conclusions. Secondly, to investigate whether the reminder-response data can be utilised to help identify the missing data mechanism. Methods: Five clinical trial datasets that employed a reminder system at follow-up were used. Some quality of life questionnaires were initially missing, but later recovered through reminders. Four methods of determining the missing data mechanism were applied. Two response data scenarios were considered. Firstly, immediate data only; secondly, all observed responses (including reminder-response). Results: In three of five trials the hypothesis tests found evidence against the MCAR assumption. Logistic regression suggested MAR, but was able to use the reminder-collected data to highlight potential MNAR data in two trials. Conclusion: The four methods were consistent in determining the missingness mechanism. One hypothesis test was preferred as it is applicable with intermittent missingness. Some inconsistencies between the two data scenarios were found. Ignoring the reminder data could potentially give a distorted view of the missingness mechanism. Utilising reminder data allowed the possibility of MNAR to be considered.The Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorate. Research Training Fellowship (CZF/1/31

Axion Protection from Flavor

The QCD axion fails to solve the strong CP problem unless all explicit PQ violating, Planck-suppressed, dimension n<10 operators are forbidden or have exponentially small coefficients. We show that all theories with a QCD axion contain an irreducible source of explicit PQ violation which is proportional to the determinant of the Yukawa interaction matrix of colored fermions. Generically, this contribution is of low operator dimension and will drastically destabilize the axion potential, so its suppression is a necessary condition for solving the strong CP problem. We propose a mechanism whereby the PQ symmetry is kept exact up to n=12 with the help of the very same flavor symmetries which generate the hierarchical quark masses and mixings of the SM. This "axion flavor protection" is straightforwardly realized in theories which employ radiative fermion mass generation and grand unification. A universal feature of this construction is that the heavy quark Yukawa couplings are generated at the PQ breaking scale.Comment: 16 pages, 2 figure

Relationships of Polychlorinated Biphenyls and Dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p’-DDE) with Testosterone Levels in Adolescent Males

Background: Concern persists over endocrine-disrupting effects of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) on human growth and sexual maturation. Potential effects of toxicant exposures on testosterone levels during puberty are not well characterized. Objectives: In this study we evaluated the relationship between toxicants [polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p´-DDE), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), and lead] and testosterone levels among 127 Akwesasne Mohawk males 10 to \u3c 17 years of age with documented toxicant exposures. Methods: Data were collected between February 1996 and January 2000. Fasting blood specimens were collected before breakfast by trained Akwesasne Mohawk staff. Multivariable regression models were used to estimates associations between toxicants and serum testosterone, adjusted for other toxicants, Tanner stage, and potential confounders. Results: The sum of 16 PCB congeners (Σ16PCBs) that were detected in ≥ 50% of the population was significantly and negatively associated with serum testosterone levels, such that a 10% change in exposure was associated with a 5.6% decrease in testosterone (95% CI: –10.8, –0.5%). Of the 16 congeners, the more persistent ones (Σ8PerPCBs) were related to testosterone, whereas the less persistent ones, possibly reflecting more recent exposure, were not. When PCB congeners were subgrouped, the association was significant for the sum of eight more persistent PCBs (5.7% decrease; 95% CI: –11, –0.4%), and stronger than the sum of six less persistent congeners (3.1% decrease; 95% CI: –7.2, 0.9%). p,p´-DDE was positively but not significantly associated with serum testosterone (5.2% increase with a 10% increase in exposure; 95% CI: –0.5, 10.9%). Neither lead nor HCB was significantly associated with testosterone levels. Conclusions: Exposure to PCBs, particularly the more highly persistent congeners, may negatively influence testosterone levels among adolescent males. The positive relationship between p,p´-DDE and testosterone indicates that not all POPs act similarly

Locomotor hyperactivity in 14-3-3Zeta KO mice is associated with dopamine transporter dysfunction

Dopamine (DA) neurotransmission requires a complex series of enzymatic reactions that are tightly linked to catecholamine exocytosis and receptor interactions on pre- and postsynaptic neurons. Regulation of dopaminergic signalling is primarily achieved through reuptake of extracellular DA by the DA transporter (DAT) on presynaptic neurons. Aberrant regulation of DA signalling, and in particular hyperactivation, has been proposed as a key insult in the presentation of schizophrenia and related neuropsychiatric disorders. We recently identified 14-3-3ζ as an essential component of neurodevelopment and a central risk factor in the schizophrenia protein interaction network. Our analysis of 14-3-3ζ-deficient mice now shows that baseline hyperactivity of knockout (KO) mice is rescued by the antipsychotic drug clozapine. 14-3-3ζ KO mice displayed enhanced locomotor hyperactivity induced by the DA releaser amphetamine. Consistent with 14-3-3ζ having a role in DA signalling, we found increased levels of DA in the striatum of 14-3-3ζ KO mice. Although 14-3-3ζ is proposed to modulate activity of the rate-limiting DA biosynthesis enzyme, tyrosine hydroxylase (TH), we were unable to identify any differences in total TH levels, TH localization or TH activation in 14-3-3ζ KO mice. Rather, our analysis identified significantly reduced levels of DAT in the absence of notable differences in RNA or protein levels of DA receptors D1–D5. Providing insight into the mechanisms by which 14-3-3ζ controls DAT stability, we found a physical association between 14-3-3ζ and DAT by co-immunoprecipitation. Taken together, our results identify a novel role for 14-3-3ζ in DA neurotransmission and provide support to the hyperdopaminergic basis of pathologies associated with schizophrenia and related disorders.H Ramshaw, X Xu, EJ Jaehne, P McCarthy, Z Greenberg, E Saleh, B McClure, J Woodcock, S Kabbara, S Wiszniak, Ting-Yi Wang, C Parish, M van den Buuse, BT Baune, A Lopez and Q Schwar

Degeneracy: a link between evolvability, robustness and complexity in biological systems

A full accounting of biological robustness remains elusive; both in terms of the mechanisms by which robustness is achieved and the forces that have caused robustness to grow over evolutionary time. Although its importance to topics such as ecosystem services and resilience is well recognized, the broader relationship between robustness and evolution is only starting to be fully appreciated. A renewed interest in this relationship has been prompted by evidence that mutational robustness can play a positive role in the discovery of adaptive innovations (evolvability) and evidence of an intimate relationship between robustness and complexity in biology. This paper offers a new perspective on the mechanics of evolution and the origins of complexity, robustness, and evolvability. Here we explore the hypothesis that degeneracy, a partial overlap in the functioning of multi-functional components, plays a central role in the evolution and robustness of complex forms. In support of this hypothesis, we present evidence that degeneracy is a fundamental source of robustness, it is intimately tied to multi-scaled complexity, and it establishes conditions that are necessary for system evolvability

The association of health literacy with adherence in older 2 adults, and its role in interventions: a systematic meta-review

Background: Low health literacy is a common problem among older adults. It is often suggested to be associated with poor adherence. This suggested association implies a need for effective adherence interventions in low health literate people. However, previous reviews show mixed results on the association between low health literacy and poor adherence. A systematic meta-review of systematic reviews was conducted to study the association between health literacy and adherence in adults above the age of 50. Evidence for the effectiveness of adherence interventions among adults in this older age group with low health literacy was also explored. Methods: Eight electronic databases (MEDLINE, ERIC, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, DARE, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Knowledge) were searched using a variety of keywords regarding health literacy and adherence. Additionally, references of identified articles were checked. Systematic reviews were included if they assessed the association between health literacy and adherence or evaluated the effectiveness of interventions to improve adherence in adults with low health literacy. The AMSTAR tool was used to assess the quality of the included reviews. The selection procedure, data-extraction, and quality assessment were performed by two independent reviewers. Seventeen reviews were selected for inclusion. Results: Reviews varied widely in quality. Both reviews of high and low quality found only weak or mixed associations between health literacy and adherence among older adults. Reviews report on seven studies that assess the effectiveness of adherence interventions among low health literate older adults. The results suggest that some adherence interventions are effective for this group. The interventions described in the reviews focused mainly on education and on lowering the health literacy demands of adherence instructions. No conclusions could be drawn about which type of intervention could be most beneficial for this population. Conclusions: Evidence on the association between health literacy and adherence in older adults is relatively weak. Adherence interventions are potentially effective for the vulnerable population of older adults with low levels of health literacy, but the evidence on this topic is limited. Further research is needed on the association between health literacy and general health behavior, and on the effectiveness of interventions

Networked buffering: a basic mechanism for distributed robustness in complex adaptive systems

A generic mechanism - networked buffering - is proposed for the generation of robust traits in complex systems. It requires two basic conditions to be satisfied: 1) agents are versatile enough to perform more than one single functional role within a system and 2) agents are degenerate, i.e. there exists partial overlap in the functional capabilities of agents. Given these prerequisites, degenerate systems can readily produce a distributed systemic response to local perturbations. Reciprocally, excess resources related to a single function can indirectly support multiple unrelated functions within a degenerate system. In models of genome:proteome mappings for which localized decision-making and modularity of genetic functions are assumed, we verify that such distributed compensatory effects cause enhanced robustness of system traits. The conditions needed for networked buffering to occur are neither demanding nor rare, supporting the conjecture that degeneracy may fundamentally underpin distributed robustness within several biotic and abiotic systems. For instance, networked buffering offers new insights into systems engineering and planning activities that occur under high uncertainty. It may also help explain recent developments in understanding the origins of resilience within complex ecosystems. \ud \u