Analysis of uncertainty in health care cost-effectiveness studies: an introduction to statistical issues and methods

Cost-effectiveness analysis is now an integral part of health technology assessment and addresses the question of whether a new treatment or other health care program offers good value for money. In this paper we introduce the basic framework for decision making with cost-effectiveness data and then review recent developments in statistical methods for analysis of uncertainty when cost-effectiveness estimates are based on observed data from a clinical trial. Although much research has focused on methods for calculating confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios using bootstrapping or Fieller’s method, these calculations can be problematic with a ratio-based statistic where numerator and=or denominator can be zero. We advocate plotting the joint density of cost and effect differences, together with cumulative density plots known as cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) to summarize the overall value-for-money of interventions. We also outline the net-benefit formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem and show that it has particular advantages over the standard incremental cost-effectiveness ratio formulation

Children and older adults exhibit distinct sub-optimal cost-benefit functions when preparing to move their eyes and hands

"© 2015 Gonzalez et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited"Numerous activities require an individual to respond quickly to the correct stimulus. The provision of advance information allows response priming but heightened responses can cause errors (responding too early or reacting to the wrong stimulus). Thus, a balance is required between the online cognitive mechanisms (inhibitory and anticipatory) used to prepare and execute a motor response at the appropriate time. We investigated the use of advance information in 71 participants across four different age groups: (i) children, (ii) young adults, (iii) middle-aged adults, and (iv) older adults. We implemented 'cued' and 'non-cued' conditions to assess age-related changes in saccadic and touch responses to targets in three movement conditions: (a) Eyes only; (b) Hands only; (c) Eyes and Hand. Children made less saccade errors compared to young adults, but they also exhibited longer response times in cued versus non-cued conditions. In contrast, older adults showed faster responses in cued conditions but exhibited more errors. The results indicate that young adults (18 -25 years) achieve an optimal balance between anticipation and execution. In contrast, children show benefits (few errors) and costs (slow responses) of good inhibition when preparing a motor response based on advance information; whilst older adults show the benefits and costs associated with a prospective response strategy (i.e., good anticipation)

PREDICT: a method for inferring novel drug indications with application to personalized medicine

The authors present a new method, PREDICT, for the large-scale prediction of drug indications, and demonstrate its use on both approved drugs and novel molecules. They also provide a proof-of-concept for its potential utility in predicting patient-specific medications

Determinants of the voltage dependence of G protein modulation within calcium channel β subunits

CaVβ subunits of voltage-gated calcium channels contain two conserved domains, a src-homology-3 (SH3) domain and a guanylate kinase-like (GK) domain with an intervening HOOK domain. We have shown in a previous study that, although Gβγ-mediated inhibitory modulation of CaV2.2 channels did not require the interaction of a CaVβ subunit with the CaVα1 subunit, when such interaction was prevented by a mutation in the α1 subunit, G protein modulation could not be removed by a large depolarization and showed voltage-independent properties (Leroy et al., J Neurosci 25:6984–6996, 2005). In this study, we have investigated the ability of mutant and truncated CaVβ subunits to support voltage-dependent G protein modulation in order to determine the minimal domain of the CaVβ subunit that is required for this process. We have coexpressed the CaVβ subunit constructs with CaV2.2 and α2δ-2, studied modulation by the activation of the dopamine D2 receptor, and also examined basal tonic modulation. Our main finding is that the CaVβ subunit GK domains, from either β1b or β2, are sufficient to restore voltage dependence to G protein modulation. We also found that the removal of the variable HOOK region from β2a promotes tonic voltage-dependent G protein modulation. We propose that the absence of the HOOK region enhances Gβγ binding affinity, leading to greater tonic modulation by basal levels of Gβγ. This tonic modulation requires the presence of an SH3 domain, as tonic modulation is not supported by any of the CaVβ subunit GK domains alone

Attribution of responsibility for sexual crimes beyond individual actors – construction of responsibility of offenders, victims and society in laypersons’ explanations

This study analyses laypersons’ explanations for sexual violence. It focusses on how the responsibility for sexual crimes is constructed and attributed, and moreover, what kind of effect this has on the attribution of blame. The research data consist of 105 opinion pieces published in the leading Finnish newspaper since the beginning of the 21st century. The theory-driven qualitative analysis utilises attribution theory and focusses on laypersons’ interpretations and explanations for unusual acts and events deviating from social norms. Attribution theory is commonly utilised in relation to micro-level actors, the offender and the victim, whereas in this article, it is broadened to include also society as a macro-level actor. The analysis reveals that the construction of responsibility derives from (I) the chronological presentation and explanation of sexual crimes; especially (II) the causality attached to chronological phases, which emphasises the victim’s actions prior to the crime; and (III) the construction of active female agency against male passivity or absence of the perpetrator. Moreover, blame is based on a combination of active agency, produced in the analysed explanations, and stereotypical features connected to female gender (e.g. rape myths)

Deep-Sea Fish Distribution Varies between Seamounts: Results from a Seamount Complex off New Zealand

Fish species data from a complex of seamounts off New Zealand termed the “Graveyard Seamount Complex’ were analysed to investigate whether fish species composition varied between seamounts. Five seamount features were included in the study, with summit depths ranging from 748–891 m and elevation from 189–352 m. Measures of fish species dominance, rarity, richness, diversity, and similarity were examined. A number of factors were explored to explain variation in species composition, including latitude, water temperature, summit depth, depth at base, elevation, area, slope, and fishing effort. Depth at base and slope relationships were significant with shallow seamounts having high total species richness, and seamounts with a more gradual slope had high mean species richness. Species similarity was modelled and showed that the explanatory variables were driven primarily by summit depth, as well as by the intensity of fishing effort and elevation. The study showed that fish assemblages on seamounts can vary over very small spatial scales, in the order of several km. However, patterns of species similarity and abundance were inconsistent across the seamounts examined, and these results add to a growing literature suggesting that faunal communities on seamounts may be populated from a broad regional species pool, yet show considerable variation on individual seamounts

Manufacturing Industrial Development for the Alternative Energy Systems-Final Report

NCMS identified and developed critical manufacturing technology assessments vital to the affordable manufacturing of alternative-energy systems. NCMS leveraged technologies from other industrial sectors and worked with our extensive member organizations to provide DOE with two projects with far-reaching impact on the generation of wind energy. In the response for a call for project ideas, 26 project teams submitted ideas. Following a detailed selection criteria, two projects were chosen for development: Advanced Manufacturing for Modular Electro-kinetic (E-K) Wind Energy Conversion Technology - The goal of this project was to demonstrate that a modular wind energy technology based on electrohydrodynamic wind energy principles and employing automotive heritage high volume manufacturing techniques and modular platform design concepts can result in significant cost reductions for wind energy systems at a range of sizes from 100KW to multi-MW. During this program, the Accio/Boeing team made major progress on validating the EHD wind energy technology as commercially viable in the wind energy sector, and moved along the manufacturing readiness axis with a series of design changes that increased net system output. Hybrid Laser Arc Welding for Manufacture of Wind Towers - The goal of this research program was to reduce the cost of manufacturing wind towers through the introduction of hybrid laser arc welding (HLAW) into the supply chain for manufacturing wind towers. HLAW has the potential to enhance productivity while reducing energy consumption to offset the foreign low-cost labor advantage and thereby enhance U.S. competitiveness. HLAW technology combines laser welding and arc welding to produce an energy efficient, high productivity, welding process for heavy manufacturing. This process leverages the ability of a laser to produce deep weld penetration and the ability of gas metal arc welding (GMAW) to deposit filler material, thereby producing stable, high quality, welds on joints with gaps and mismatches typical of those seen in heavy manufacturing. Wind towers utilize varying thicknesses of steel throughout their structures to meet the mechanical load requirements while keeping material costs low. A typical tower might have as many as twelve different material thicknesses. Joining each thickness requires a unique joint design and welding approach to enable the management of quality, productivity, and mechanical properties. In this program, laser joining of materials with thicknesses ranging from 12mm to 35mm were evaluated against the standard quality and mechanical requirements for General Electric wind tower components. The joining processes demonstrated showed the ability to meet key requirements with the appropriate process controls in place

A Minimal Threshold of c-di-GMP Is Essential for Fruiting Body Formation and Sporulation in Myxococcus xanthus

Generally, the second messenger bis-(3’-5’)-cyclic dimeric GMP (c-di-GMP) regulates the switch between motile and sessile lifestyles in bacteria. Here, we show that c-di-GMP is an essential regulator of multicellular development in the social bacterium Myxococcus xanthus. In response to starvation, M. xanthus initiates a developmental program that culminates in formation of spore-filled fruiting bodies. We show that c-di-GMP accumulates at elevated levels during development and that this increase is essential for completion of development whereas excess c-di-GMP does not interfere with development. MXAN3735 (renamed DmxB) is identified as a diguanylate cyclase that only functions during development and is responsible for this increased c-di-GMP accumulation. DmxB synthesis is induced in response to starvation, thereby restricting DmxB activity to development. DmxB is essential for development and functions downstream of the Dif chemosensory system to stimulate exopolysaccharide accumulation by inducing transcription of a subset of the genes encoding proteins involved in exopolysaccharide synthesis. The developmental defects in the dmxB mutant are non-cell autonomous and rescued by co-development with a strain proficient in exopolysaccharide synthesis, suggesting reduced exopolysaccharide accumulation as the causative defect in this mutant. The NtrC-like transcriptional regulator EpsI/Nla24, which is required for exopolysaccharide accumulation, is identified as a c-diGMP receptor, and thus a putative target for DmxB generated c-di-GMP. Because DmxB can be—at least partially—functionally replaced by a heterologous diguanylate cyclase, these results altogether suggest a model in which a minimum threshold level of c-di-GMP is essential for the successful completion of multicellular development in M. xanthus

Nanoparticles as multimodal photon transducers of ionizing radiation

In biomedical imaging, nanoparticles combined with radionuclides that generate Cerenkov luminescence are used in diagnostic imaging, photon-induced therapies, and as activatable probes. In these applications, the nanoparticle is often viewed as a carrier inert to ionizing radiation from the radionuclide. However, certain phenomena such as enhanced nanoparticle luminescence and generation of reactive oxygen species cannot be explained by only Cerenkov luminescence interactions with nanoparticles. Herein, we report methods to examine the mechanisms of nanoparticle excitation by radionuclides, including interactions with Cerenkov luminescence, β particles, and γ radiation. We demonstrate that β scintillation contributes appreciably to excitation and reactivity in certain nanoparticle systems and that excitation of nanoparticles composed of large atomic number atoms by radionuclides generates X-rays, enabling multiplexed imaging through single photon emission computed tomography. These findings demonstrate practical optical imaging and therapy using radionuclides with emission energies below the Cerenkov threshold, thereby expanding the list of applicable radionuclides