Analysis of uncertainty in health care cost-effectiveness studies: an introduction to statistical issues and methods

Cost-effectiveness analysis is now an integral part of health technology assessment and addresses the question of whether a new treatment or other health care program offers good value for money. In this paper we introduce the basic framework for decision making with cost-effectiveness data and then review recent developments in statistical methods for analysis of uncertainty when cost-effectiveness estimates are based on observed data from a clinical trial. Although much research has focused on methods for calculating confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios using bootstrapping or Fieller’s method, these calculations can be problematic with a ratio-based statistic where numerator and=or denominator can be zero. We advocate plotting the joint density of cost and effect differences, together with cumulative density plots known as cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) to summarize the overall value-for-money of interventions. We also outline the net-benefit formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem and show that it has particular advantages over the standard incremental cost-effectiveness ratio formulation

Development of the Carers’ Alert Thermometer (CAT) to identify family carers struggling with caring for someone dying at home: a mixed method consensus study

Background: There is an increasing international policy direction to promote home death for dying patients which will impact on the demands placed on family carers. The early identification of carer needs and appropriate intervention can help avoid crisis situations for the carer and avoidable hospital admissions which are reported to be a global concern. The aim of the study was to explore what professionals and carers of patients with cancer and advanced progressive illness, in their last year of life, find burdensome and to develop an alert system for use by non-specialist staff. Methods: A mixed-method, multi-phased, consensus study sequentially utilising qualitative and quantitative data to develop and pilot the Carers’ Alert Thermometer (CAT). 245 people (117 carers and 128 professionals) participated in the study across a range of health and social care settings in the North West of England (2011–2014). Results: A number of key domains were identified and prioritised by consensus for inclusion in the CAT. The 8 domains fit within two overarching themes of the reported carer experience; the support needed by the carer to provide care and the support needed for the carer’s own health and well-being. The resultant CAT is an evidence-based alert thermometer consisting of 10 questions, guidance on the possible actions for each alert and space for an action plan to be jointly agreed by the assessor and carer. Preliminary piloting of the CAT has shown it to be valued, fit for purpose and it can be administered by a range of personnel. Conclusions: The CAT enables the identification of current and potential future needs so a proactive approach can be taken to supporting the carer as their role develops over time, with a view to enhancing their well-being and preventing avoidable hospital admissions; ultimately supporting patient choice to remain in their own home

Monthly quasi-periodic eruptions from repeated stellar disruption by a massive black hole

In recent years, searches of archival X-ray data have revealed galaxies exhibiting nuclear quasi-periodic eruptions with periods of several hours. These are reminiscent of the tidal disruption of a star by a supermassive black hole. The repeated, partial stripping of a white dwarf in an eccentric orbit around an ~105 M⊙ black hole provides an attractive model. A separate class of periodic nuclear transients, with much longer timescales, have recently been discovered optically and may arise from the partial stripping of a main-sequence star by an ~107 M⊙ black hole. No clear connection between these classes has been made. We present the discovery of an X-ray nuclear transient that shows quasi-periodic outbursts with a period of weeks. We discuss possible origins for the emission and propose that this system bridges the two existing classes outlined above. This discovery was made possible by the rapid identification, dissemination and follow-up of an X-ray transient found by the new live Swift-XRT transient detector, demonstrating the importance of low-latency, sensitive searches for X-ray transients

Decision-making and referral processes for patients with motor neurone disease: a qualitative study of GP experiences and evaluation of a new decision-support tool

Background The diagnosis of motor neurone disease (MND) is known to be challenging and there may be delay in patients receiving a correct diagnosis. This study investigated the referral process for patients who had been diagnosed with MND, and whether a newly-developed tool (The Red Flags checklist) might help General Practitioners (GPs) in making referral decisions. Methods We carried out interviews with GPs who had recently referred a patient diagnosed with MND, and interviews/surveys with GPs who had not recently referred a patient with suspected MND. We collected data before the Red Flags checklist was introduced; and again one year later. We analysed the data to identify key recurring themes. Results Forty two GPs took part in the study. The presence of fasciculation was the clinical feature that most commonly led to consideration of a potential MND diagnosis. GPs perceived that their role was to make onward referrals rather than attempting to make a diagnosis, and delays in correct diagnosis tended to occur at the specialist level. A quarter of participants had some awareness of the newly-developed tool; most considered it useful, if incorporated into existing systems. Conclusions While fasciculation is the most common symptom associated with MND, other bulbar, limb or respiratory features, together with progression should be considered. There is a need for further research into how decision-support tools should be designed and provided, in order to best assist GPs with referral decisions. There is also a need for further work at the level of secondary care, in order that referrals made are re-directed appropriately

Disease acceptance and adherence to imatinib in Taiwanese chronic myeloid leukaemia outpatients

Background The launch of imatinib has turned chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) into a chronic illness due to the dramatic improvement in survival. Several recent studies have demonstrated that poor adherence to imatinib may hamper the therapeutic outcomes and result in increased medical expenditures, whilst research on exploring the reasons for non-adherence to imatinib is still limited. Objective This study aimed to explore the experience of patients as they journey through their CML treatments and associated imatinib utilisation in order to understand the perceptions, attitudes and concerns that may influence adherence to imatinib treatment. Setting This study was conducted at oncology outpatient clinics in a medical centre in southern Taiwan. Methods CML patients who regularly attended the oncology outpatient clinics to receive imatinib treatment from October 2011 to March 2012 were invited to participate in the study. Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were used to explore patients’ experiences and views of their treatment, their current CML status and CML-related health conditions, their concerns about imatinib treatment and imatinib-taking behaviours. Patient interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim and thematically analysed using the constant comparison approach. Main outcome measure Themes related to patients’ views of the disease and health conditions, worries and concerns influencing imatinib utilisation behaviours are reported. Results Forty-two CML patients participated in the interviews. The emerging themes included: acceptance of current disease and health status, misconceptions about disease progression, factors associated with adherence to imatinib, concerns and management of adverse drug effects. Participants regarded CML as a chronic disease but had misconceptions about disease progression, therapeutic monitoring, resistance to imatinib and symptoms of side effects. Participants were generally adherent to imatinib and favoured long-term prescriptions to avoid regular outpatient visits for medication refills. Experiencing adverse effect was the main reason influencing adherence and led to polypharmacy. Most participants altered medicine-taking behaviours to maintain long-term use of imatinib. Conclusion Taiwanese CML patients are adherent to imatinib but report changing their medication-taking behaviour due to adverse drug effects and associated polypharmacy. Patients’ misconceptions of the disease and medication suggests that it is necessary to improve communication between patients and healthcare professionals. Routinely providing updated information as part of the patient counselling process should be considered as a means of improving this communication

Community-Based Climate Change Adaptation Action Plans to Support Climate-Resilient Development in the Eastern African Highlands

Smallholder farmers in the Eastern African Highlands depend on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Climate adaptation and sustainable development goals must be targeted in an integrated way to better match farmers’ realities and address local priorities and vulnerabilities in these areas. To support climate-resilient development in the Eastern African Highlands, 224 local stakeholders were engaged in the development of community-based climate change adaptation action plans for the Jimma Highlands in Ethiopia, Taita Hills in Kenya and Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania. Participatory methods, high-resolution climate projections and the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP’s) guidelines were used in the design of these climate action plans with specific objectives to: 1) engage stakeholders to increase understanding of climate change impacts, adaptation options and their potential trade-offs, 2) build their capacities to design climate change adaptation projects, 3) empower stakeholders to identify existing vulnerabilities and enhance climate resilience and 4) strengthen networks to facilitate information access and sharing. Increased risk of water stress and reduction of agricultural productivity were the most frequently identified climate-change-induced problems in the three areas. The developed action plans target the underlying causes of these problems and describe sector-specific responses, activities, critical barriers and opportunities and support the National Adaptation Programmes of Action.Peer reviewe

Clinical Implication of Targeting of Cancer Stem Cells

The existence of cancer stem cells (CSCs) is receiving increasing interest particularly due to its potential ability to enter clinical routine. Rapid advances in the CSC field have provided evidence for the development of more reliable anticancer therapies in the future. CSCs typically only constitute a small fraction of the total tumor burden; however, they harbor self-renewal capacity and appear to be relatively resistant to conventional therapies. Recent therapeutic approaches aim to eliminate or differentiate CSCs or to disrupt the niches in which they reside. Better understanding of the biological characteristics of CSCs as well as improved preclinical and clinical trials targeting CSCs may revolutionize the treatment of many cancers. Copyright (c) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

The cometary composition of a protoplanetary disk as revealed by complex cyanides

Observations of comets and asteroids show that the Solar Nebula that spawned our planetary system was rich in water and organic molecules. Bombardment brought these organics to the young Earth's surface, seeding its early chemistry. Unlike asteroids, comets preserve a nearly pristine record of the Solar Nebula composition. The presence of cyanides in comets, including 0.01% of methyl cyanide (CH3CN) with respect to water, is of special interest because of the importance of C-N bonds for abiotic amino acid synthesis. Comet-like compositions of simple and complex volatiles are found in protostars, and can be readily explained by a combination of gas-phase chemistry to form e.g. HCN and an active ice-phase chemistry on grain surfaces that advances complexity[3]. Simple volatiles, including water and HCN, have been detected previously in Solar Nebula analogues - protoplanetary disks around young stars - indicating that they survive disk formation or are reformed in situ. It has been hitherto unclear whether the same holds for more complex organic molecules outside of the Solar Nebula, since recent observations show a dramatic change in the chemistry at the boundary between nascent envelopes and young disks due to accretion shocks[8]. Here we report the detection of CH3CN (and HCN and HC3N) in the protoplanetary disk around the young star MWC 480. We find abundance ratios of these N-bearing organics in the gas-phase similar to comets, which suggests an even higher relative abundance of complex cyanides in the disk ice. This implies that complex organics accompany simpler volatiles in protoplanetary disks, and that the rich organic chemistry of the Solar Nebula was not unique.Comment: Definitive version of the manuscript is published in Nature, 520, 7546, 198, 2015. This is the author's versio

Evidence for distinct coastal and offshore communities of bottlenose dolphins in the north east Atlantic.

Bottlenose dolphin stock structure in the northeast Atlantic remains poorly understood. However, fine scale photo-id data have shown that populations can comprise multiple overlapping social communities. These social communities form structural elements of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) [corrected] populations, reflecting specific ecological and behavioural adaptations to local habitats. We investigated the social structure of bottlenose dolphins in the waters of northwest Ireland and present evidence for distinct inshore and offshore social communities. Individuals of the inshore community had a coastal distribution restricted to waters within 3 km from shore. These animals exhibited a cohesive, fission-fusion social organisation, with repeated resightings within the research area, within a larger coastal home range. The offshore community comprised one or more distinct groups, found significantly further offshore (>4 km) than the inshore animals. In addition, dorsal fin scarring patterns differed significantly between inshore and offshore communities with individuals of the offshore community having more distinctly marked dorsal fins. Specifically, almost half of the individuals in the offshore community (48%) had characteristic stereotyped damage to the tip of the dorsal fin, rarely recorded in the inshore community (7%). We propose that this characteristic is likely due to interactions with pelagic fisheries. Social segregation and scarring differences found here indicate that the distinct communities are likely to be spatially and behaviourally segregated. Together with recent genetic evidence of distinct offshore and coastal population structures, this provides evidence for bottlenose dolphin inshore/offshore community differentiation in the northeast Atlantic. We recommend that social communities should be considered as fundamental units for the management and conservation of bottlenose dolphins and their habitat specialisations