Magnetospheric Response Times Following Southward IMF Turnings

We analyze the response times of various regions of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system to sudden southward turnings of the IMF. Our data set consists of 26 events during which the IMP BZ component was observed by WIND to change from a stea northward field to a southward field, which subsequently led to a substorm. The magnetospheric response to such IMF southward turnings is examined using data from the POLAR EFI experiment, the GOES 9 magnetometer, and ground magnetometers. The POLAR/EFI was used to investigate changes in the polar cap electric field which occurred in response to the changing interplanetary electric field, and these results are compared with response timings derived from high-latitude ground magnetometers. POLAR/EFI data show responses in the polar cap about 15 minutes after the arrival of the IMF change at the magnetopause. Auroral zone magnetograms and geosynchronous spacecraft measurements are utilized to evaluate the response timing within the closed field line region. In one event examined in detail, the start of a substorm growth phase was observed by GOES 9 in the midnight sector of geosynchronous orbit about two minutes before POLAR observed a response in the polar cap. Using superposed epoch analysis, we calculate typical response times in the polar cap, in the nightside plasma sheet, and in the ionosphere in order to discuss the various suggested mechanisms for information propagation from the subsolar magnetopause into the magnetosphere. We find that for the set of ten events for which the GOES 9 and the CANOPUS array are in the midnight sector, the field at geosynchronous as measured by GOES responds at or before the time of response in the polar cap as measured by POLAR, suggesting different methods of information propagation

Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.

PMCID: PMC3733718This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures

Directional genetic selection by pulp mill effluent on multiple natural populations of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

Contamination can cause a rapid environmental change which may require populations to respond with evolutionary changes. To evaluate the effects of pulp mill effluents on population genetics, we sampled three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) near four pulp mills and four adjacent reference sites and analyzed Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) to compare genetic variability. A fine scale genetic structure was detected and samples from polluted sites separated from reference sites in multidimensional scaling plots (P < 0.005, 1000 permutations) and locus-by-locus Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) further confirmed that habitats are significantly separated (FST = 0.021, P < 0.01, 1023 permutations). The amount of genetic variation between populations did not differ between habitats, and populations from both habitats had similar levels of heterozygosity (polluted sites Nei’s Hs = 0.11, reference sites Nei’s Hs = 0.11). Still, pairwise FST: s between three, out of four, pairs of polluted-reference sites were significant. A FST-outlier analysis showed that 21 (8.4%) loci were statistically different from a neutral distribution at the P < 0.05 level and therefore indicated to be under divergent selection. When removing 13 FST-outlier loci, significant at the P < 0.01 level, differentiation between habitats disappeared in a multidimensional scaling plot. In conclusion, pulp mill effluence has acted as a selective agent on natural populations of G. aculeatus, causing a convergence in genotype composition change at multiple sites in an open environment

Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus): A comparison between central and range edge populations

Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (lambda(s)) of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with lambda(s) much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity) of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to lambda(s) that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental variability and shows the importance of vegetative compared to reproductive stages for the long-term persistence of populations.Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) [SFRH/BPD/75843/2011]; European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) through the COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme; FCT [Pest-CIMAR LA 0015/2013, EXCL/AAG-GLO/0661/2012

Predator-Induced Demographic Shifts in Coral Reef Fish Assemblages

In recent years, it has become apparent that human impacts have altered community structure in coastal and marine ecosystems worldwide. Of these, fishing is one of the most pervasive, and a growing body of work suggests that fishing can have strong effects on the ecology of target species, especially top predators. However, the effects of removing top predators on lower trophic groups of prey fishes are less clear, particularly in highly diverse and trophically complex coral reef ecosystems. We examined patterns of abundance, size structure, and age-based demography through surveys and collection-based studies of five fish species from a variety of trophic levels at Kiritimati and Palmyra, two nearby atolls in the Northern Line Islands. These islands have similar biogeography and oceanography, and yet Kiritimati has ∼10,000 people with extensive local fishing while Palmyra is a US National Wildlife Refuge with no permanent human population, no fishing, and an intact predator fauna. Surveys indicated that top predators were relatively larger and more abundant at unfished Palmyra, while prey functional groups were relatively smaller but showed no clear trends in abundance as would be expected from classic trophic cascades. Through detailed analyses of focal species, we found that size and longevity of a top predator were lower at fished Kiritimati than at unfished Palmyra. Demographic patterns also shifted dramatically for 4 of 5 fish species in lower trophic groups, opposite in direction to the top predator, including decreases in average size and longevity at Palmyra relative to Kiritimati. Overall, these results suggest that fishing may alter community structure in complex and non-intuitive ways, and that indirect demographic effects should be considered more broadly in ecosystem-based management

Evolutionary Origin and Phylogeography of the Diploid Obligate Parthenogen Artemia parthenogenetica (Branchiopoda: Anostraca)

Background: Understanding the evolutionary origin and the phylogeographic patterns of asexual taxa can shed light on the origin and maintenance of sexual reproduction. We assessed the geographic origin, genetic diversity, and phylogeographic history of obligate parthenogen diploid Artemia parthenogenetica populations, a widespread halophilic crustaceanPeer reviewe

Effect of sitagliptin on cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND: Data are lacking on the long-term effect on cardiovascular events of adding sitagliptin, a dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor, to usual care in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind study, we assigned 14,671 patients to add either sitagliptin or placebo to their existing therapy. Open-label use of antihyperglycemic therapy was encouraged as required, aimed at reaching individually appropriate glycemic targets in all patients. To determine whether sitagliptin was noninferior to placebo, we used a relative risk of 1.3 as the marginal upper boundary. The primary cardiovascular outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for unstable angina. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.0 years, there was a small difference in glycated hemoglobin levels (least-squares mean difference for sitagliptin vs. placebo, -0.29 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.32 to -0.27). Overall, the primary outcome occurred in 839 patients in the sitagliptin group (11.4%; 4.06 per 100 person-years) and 851 patients in the placebo group (11.6%; 4.17 per 100 person-years). Sitagliptin was noninferior to placebo for the primary composite cardiovascular outcome (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.09; P<0.001). Rates of hospitalization for heart failure did not differ between the two groups (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.20; P = 0.98). There were no significant between-group differences in rates of acute pancreatitis (P = 0.07) or pancreatic cancer (P = 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease, adding sitagliptin to usual care did not appear to increase the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, hospitalization for heart failure, or other adverse events

Formation and Motion of Horse Collar Aurora Events

The polar cap can become teardrop shaped through the poleward expansion of the dusk and dawn sectors of the auroral oval, to form what is called horse collar aurora (HCA). The formation of HCA has been linked to dual-lobe reconnection (DLR) where magnetic flux is closed at the dayside magnetopause. A prolonged period of northward IMF is required for the formation of HCA. HCA have previously been identified in UV images captured by the Special Sensor Ultraviolet Spectrographic Imager (SSUSI) instrument on-board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft F16, F17 and F18. Events that have concurrent 630.0 nm all-sky camera (ASC) data from the Redline Geospace Observatory (REGO) Resolute Bay site are now studied in more detail, making use of the higher cadence of the ASC images compared to DMSP/SSUSI. 11 HCA events are studied and classified based on the IMF conditions at the end of the event. Five of the events were found to end via a southward turning of the IMF, two end with positive By dominated IMF and four with negative By dominance. Under positive (negative) By the arcs move duskward (dawnward) in the northern hemisphere with the opposite true in the southern hemisphere. Under a southward turning the arcs move equatorward. One event is of particular interest as it occurred while there was a transpolar arc (TPA) also present. Understanding the evolution of HCA will allow DLR to be studied in more detail.</p