Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

Impact of meteorological variation on hospital visits of patients with tree pollen allergy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Climate change could affect allergic diseases, especially due to pollen. However, there has been no epidemiologic study to demonstrate the relationship between meteorological factors, pollen, and allergic patients. We aimed to investigate the association between meteorological variations and hospital visits of patients with tree pollen allergy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study subjects were adult patients who received skin prick tests between April and July from 1999 to 2008. We reviewed the medical records for the test results of 4,715 patients. Patients with tree pollen allergy were defined as those sensitized to more than 1 of 12 tree pollen allergens. We used monthly means of airborne tree pollen counts and meteorological factors: maximum/average/minimum temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation. We analyzed the correlations between meteorological variations, tree pollen counts, and the patient numbers. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the associations between meteorological factors and hospital visits of patients.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The minimum temperature in March was significantly and positively correlated with tree pollen counts in March/April and patient numbers from April through July. Pollen counts in March/April were also correlated with patient numbers from April through July. After adjusting for confounders, including air pollutants, there was a positive association between the minimum temperature in March and hospital visits of patients with tree pollen allergy from April to July(odds ratio, 1.14; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.25).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Higher temperatures could increase tree pollen counts, affecting the symptoms of patients with tree pollen allergy, thereby increasing the number of patients visiting hospitals.</p

Applying Bayesian model averaging for uncertainty estimation of input data in energy modelling

Background Energy scenarios that are used for policy advice have ecological and social impact on society. Policy measures that are based on modelling exercises may lead to far reaching financial and ecological consequences. The purpose of this study is to raise awareness that energy modelling results are accompanied with uncertainties that should be addressed explicitly. Methods With view to existing approaches of uncertainty assessment in energy economics and climate science, relevant requirements for an uncertainty assessment are defined. An uncertainty assessment should be explicit, independent of the assessor&#8217;s expertise, applicable to different models, including subjective quantitative and statistical quantitative aspects, intuitively understandable and be reproducible. Bayesian model averaging for input variables of energy models is discussed as method that satisfies these requirements. A definition of uncertainty based on posterior model probabilities of input variables to energy models is presented. Results The main findings are that (1) expert elicitation as predominant assessment method does not satisfy all requirements, (2) Bayesian model averaging for input variable modelling meets the requirements and allows evaluating a vast amount of potentially relevant influences on input variables and (3) posterior model probabilities of input variable models can be translated in uncertainty associated with the input variable. Conclusions An uncertainty assessment of energy scenarios is relevant if policy measures are (partially) based on modelling exercises. Potential implications of these findings include that energy scenarios could be associated with uncertainty that is presently neither assessed explicitly nor communicated adequately

Whole Genome Sequencing and Complete Genetic Analysis Reveals Novel Pathways to Glycopeptide Resistance in Staphylococcus aureus

The precise mechanisms leading to the emergence of low-level glycopeptide resistance in Staphylococcus aureus are poorly understood. In this study, we used whole genome deep sequencing to detect differences between two isogenic strains: a parental strain and a stable derivative selected stepwise for survival on 4 µg/ml teicoplanin, but which grows at higher drug concentrations (MIC 8 µg/ml). We uncovered only three single nucleotide changes in the selected strain. Nonsense mutations occurred in stp1, encoding a serine/threonine phosphatase, and in yjbH, encoding a post-transcriptional negative regulator of the redox/thiol stress sensor and global transcriptional regulator, Spx. A missense mutation (G45R) occurred in the histidine kinase sensor of cell wall stress, VraS. Using genetic methods, all single, pairwise combinations, and a fully reconstructed triple mutant were evaluated for their contribution to low-level glycopeptide resistance. We found a synergistic cooperation between dual phospho-signalling systems and a subtle contribution from YjbH, suggesting the activation of oxidative stress defences via Spx. To our knowledge, this is the first genetic demonstration of multiple sensor and stress pathways contributing simultaneously to glycopeptide resistance development. The multifactorial nature of glycopeptide resistance in this strain suggests a complex reprogramming of cell physiology to survive in the face of drug challenge

Effects of rising temperature on pelagic biogeochemistry in mesocosm systems: a comparative analysis of the AQUASHIFT Kiel experiments

A comparative analysis of data, obtained during four indoor-mesocosm experiments with natural spring plankton communities from the Baltic Sea, was conducted to investigate whether biogeochemical cycling is affected by an increase in water temperature of up to 6 °C above present-day conditions. In all experiments, warming stimulated in particular heterotrophic bacterial processes and had an accelerating effect on the temporal development of phytoplankton blooms. This was also mirrored in the build-up and partitioning of organic matter between particulate and dissolved phases. Thus, warming increased both the magnitude and rate of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) build-up, whereas the accumulation of particulate organic carbon (POC) and phosphorus (POP) decreased with rising temperature. In concert, the observed temperature-mediated changes in biogeochemical components suggest strong shifts in the functioning of marine pelagic food webs and the ocean’s biological carbon pump, hence providing potential feedback mechanisms to Earth’s climate system

The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35◦ AGCM

The South Asian monsoon is one of the most significant manifestations of the seasonal cycle. It directly impacts nearly one third of the world’s population and also has substantial global influence. Using 27-year integrations of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (Met Office Unified Model), we study changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation and circulation when horizontal resolution is increased from approximately 200 to 40 km at the equator (N96 to N512, 1.9 to 0.35◦). The high resolution, integration length and ensemble size of the dataset make this the most extensive dataset used to evaluate the resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon to date. We find a consistent pattern of JJAS precipitation and circulation changes as resolution increases, which include a slight increase in precipitation over peninsular India, changes in Indian and Indochinese orographic rain bands, increasing wind speeds in the Somali Jet, increasing precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands and decreasing precipitation over the northern Maritime Continent seas. To diagnose which resolution related processes cause these changes we compare them to published sensitivity experiments that change regional orography and coastlines. Our analysis indicates that improved resolution of the East African Highlands results in the improved representation of the Somali Jet and further suggests that improved resolution of orography over Indochina and the Maritime Continent results in more precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands at the expense of reduced precipitation further north. We also evaluate the resolution sensitivity of monsoon depressions and lows, which contribute more precipitation over northeast India at higher resolution. We conclude that while increasing resolution at these scales does not solve the many monsoon biases that exist in GCMs, it has a number of small, beneficial impacts

Role of Human-Mediated Dispersal in the Spread of the Pinewood Nematode in China

Background: Intensification of world trade is responsible for an increase in the number of alien species introductions. Human-mediated dispersal promotes not only introductions but also expansion of the species distribution via long-distance dispersal. Thus, understanding the role of anthropogenic pathways in the spread of invading species has become one of the most important challenges nowadays. Methodology/Principal Findings: We analysed the invasion pattern of the pinewood nematode in China based on invasion data from 1982 to 2005 and monitoring data on 7 locations over 15 years. Short distance spread mediated by long-horned beetles was estimated at 7.5 km per year. Infested sites located further away represented more than 90% of observations and the mean long distance spread was estimated at 111–339 km. Railways, river ports, and lakes had significant effects on the spread pattern. Human population density levels explained 87% of the variation in the invasion probability (P,0.05).Since 2001, the number of new records of the nematode was multiplied by a factor of 5 and the spread distance by a factor of 2. We combined a diffusion model to describe the short distance spread with a stochastic,individual based model to describe the long distance jumps. This combined model generated an error of only 13% when used to predict the presence of the nematode. Under two climate scenarios (stable climate or moderate warming), projections of the invasion probability suggest that this pest could expand its distribution 40–55% by 2025. Conclusions/Significance: This study provides evidence that human-induced dispersal plays a fundamental role in the spread of the pinewood nematode, and appropriate control measures should be taken to stop or slow its expansion. This model can be applied to Europe, where the nematode had been introduced later, and is currently expanding its distribution. Similar models could also be derived for other species that could be accidentally transported by humans

Genetic Pathway in Acquisition and Loss of Vancomycin Resistance in a Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) Strain of Clonal Type USA300

An isolate of the methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) clone USA300 with reduced susceptibility to vancomycin (SG-R) (i.e, vancomycin-intermediate S. aureus, VISA) and its susceptible “parental” strain (SG-S) were recovered from a patient at the end and at the beginning of an unsuccessful vancomycin therapy. The VISA phenotype was unstable in vitro generating a susceptible revertant strain (SG-rev). The availability of these 3 isogenic strains allowed us to explore genetic correlates of antibiotic resistance as it emerged in vivo. Compared to the susceptible isolate, both the VISA and revertant strains carried the same point mutations in yycH, vraG, yvqF and lspA genes and a substantial deletion within an intergenic region. The revertant strain carried a single additional frameshift mutation in vraS which is part of two component regulatory system VraSR. VISA isolate SG-R showed complex alterations in phenotype: decreased susceptibility to other antibiotics, slow autolysis, abnormal cell division and increased thickness of cell wall. There was also altered expression of 239 genes including down-regulation of major virulence determinants. All phenotypic properties and gene expression profile returned to parental levels in the revertant strain. Introduction of wild type yvqF on a multicopy plasmid into the VISA strain caused loss of resistance along with loss of all the associated phenotypic changes. Introduction of the wild type vraSR into the revertant strain caused recovery of VISA type resistance. The yvqF/vraSR operon seems to function as an on/off switch: mutation in yvqF in strain SG-R turns on the vraSR system, which leads to increase in vancomycin resistance and down-regulation of virulence determinants. Mutation in vraS in the revertant strain turns off this regulatory system accompanied by loss of resistance and normal expression of virulence genes. Down-regulation of virulence genes may provide VISA strains with a “stealth” strategy to evade detection by the host immune system