Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system

Lung resistance-related protein as a predictor of clinical outcome in advanced testicular germ-cell tumours

This study was undertaken to investigate the expression and predictive value for outcome of multidrug resistance-associated (MDR) proteins P-glycoprotein (Pgp), MRP1, BCRP, and LRP, in advanced testicular germ-cell tumours (TGCT). Paraffin-embedded sections from 56 previously untreated patients with metastatic TGCT were immunostained for Pgp, MRP1, BCRP, and LRP. All patients received platinum-based chemotherapy after orchidectomy. Immunostaining was related to clinicopathological parameters, response to chemotherapy, and outcome. Strong and intermediate expressions of the different MDR-related proteins were: 27 and 41% (Pgp), 54 and 37% (MRP1), 86 and 7% (BCRP), and 14 and 29% (LRP). P-glycoprotein and MRP1 associated, respectively, to low AFP (P=0.026) and high LDH levels (P=0.014), whereas LRP expression associated with high beta-hCG levels (P=0.003) and stage IV tumours (P=0.029). No correlation was found between Pgp, MRP1, and BCRP expression and response to chemotherapy and survival. In contrast, patients with LRP-positive tumours (strong or intermediate expression) had shorter progression-free (P=0.0006) and overall survival (P=0.0116) than LRP-negative patients, even after individual log-rank adjustments by statistically associated variables. Our data suggest that a positive LRP immunostaining at the time of diagnosis in metastatic TGCT is associated with an adverse clinical outcome

Multiple Imputation Ensembles (MIE) for dealing with missing data

Missing data is a significant issue in many real-world datasets, yet there are no robust methods for dealing with it appropriately. In this paper, we propose a robust approach to dealing with missing data in classification problems: Multiple Imputation Ensembles (MIE). Our method integrates two approaches: multiple imputation and ensemble methods and compares two types of ensembles: bagging and stacking. We also propose a robust experimental set-up using 20 benchmark datasets from the UCI machine learning repository. For each dataset, we introduce increasing amounts of data Missing Completely at Random. Firstly, we use a number of single/multiple imputation methods to recover the missing values and then ensemble a number of different classifiers built on the imputed data. We assess the quality of the imputation by using dissimilarity measures. We also evaluate the MIE performance by comparing classification accuracy on the complete and imputed data. Furthermore, we use the accuracy of simple imputation as a benchmark for comparison. We find that our proposed approach combining multiple imputation with ensemble techniques outperform others, particularly as missing data increases

Detecting early-warning signals for sudden deterioration of complex diseases by dynamical network biomarkers

Considerable evidence suggests that during the progression of complex diseases, the deteriorations are not necessarily smooth but are abrupt, and may cause a critical transition from one state to another at a tipping point. Here, we develop a model-free method to detect early-warning signals of such critical transitions, even with only a small number of samples. Specifically, we theoretically derive an index based on a dynamical network biomarker (DNB) that serves as a general early-warning signal indicating an imminent bifurcation or sudden deterioration before the critical transition occurs. Based on theoretical analyses, we show that predicting a sudden transition from small samples is achievable provided that there are a large number of measurements for each sample, e.g., high-throughput data. We employ microarray data of three diseases to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. The relevance of DNBs with the diseases was also validated by related experimental data and functional analysis

Social interaction, noise and antibiotic-mediated switches in the intestinal microbiota

The intestinal microbiota plays important roles in digestion and resistance against entero-pathogens. As with other ecosystems, its species composition is resilient against small disturbances but strong perturbations such as antibiotics can affect the consortium dramatically. Antibiotic cessation does not necessarily restore pre-treatment conditions and disturbed microbiota are often susceptible to pathogen invasion. Here we propose a mathematical model to explain how antibiotic-mediated switches in the microbiota composition can result from simple social interactions between antibiotic-tolerant and antibiotic-sensitive bacterial groups. We build a two-species (e.g. two functional-groups) model and identify regions of domination by antibiotic-sensitive or antibiotic-tolerant bacteria, as well as a region of multistability where domination by either group is possible. Using a new framework that we derived from statistical physics, we calculate the duration of each microbiota composition state. This is shown to depend on the balance between random fluctuations in the bacterial densities and the strength of microbial interactions. The singular value decomposition of recent metagenomic data confirms our assumption of grouping microbes as antibiotic-tolerant or antibiotic-sensitive in response to a single antibiotic. Our methodology can be extended to multiple bacterial groups and thus it provides an ecological formalism to help interpret the present surge in microbiome data.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figures accepted for publication in Plos Comp Bio. Supplementary video and information availabl

Selection and characterisation of a phage-displayed human antibody (Fab) reactive to the lung resistance-related major vault protein

The major vault protein is the main component on multimeric vault particles, that are likely to play an essential role in normal cell physiology and to be associated with multidrug resistance of tumour cells. In order to unravel the function of vaults and their putative contribution to multidrug resistance, specific antibodies are invaluable tools. Until now, only conventional major vault protein-reactive murine monoclonal antibodies have been generated, that are most suitable for immunohistochemical analyses. The phage display method allows for selection of human antibody fragments with potential use in clinical applications. Furthermore, cDNA sequences encoding selected antibody fragments are readily identified, facilitating various molecular targeting approaches. In order to obtain such human Fab fragments recognising major vault protein we used a large non-immunized human Fab fragment phage library. Phages displaying major vault protein-reactive Fabs were obtained through several rounds of selection on major vault protein-coated immunotubes and subsequent amplification in TG1 E coli bacteria. Eventually, one major vault protein-reactive clone was selected and further examined. The anti-major vault protein Fab was found suitable for immunohistochemical and Western blot analysis of tumour cell lines and human tissues. BIAcore analysis showed that the binding affinity of the major vault protein-reactive clone almost equalled that of the murine anti-major vault protein Mabs. The cDNA sequence of this human Fab may be exploited to generate an intrabody for major vault protein-knock out studies. Thus, this human Fab fragment should provide a valuable tool in elucidating the contribution(s) of major vault protein/vaults to normal physiology and cellular drug resistance mechanisms

Loss of neuronal network resilience precedes seizures and determines the ictogenic nature of interictal synaptic perturbations

The mechanisms of seizure emergence, and the role of brief interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs) in seizure generation are two of the most important unresolved issues in modern epilepsy research. Our study shows that the transition to seizure is not a sudden phenomenon,but a slow process characterized by the progressive loss of neuronal network resilience. From a dynamical perspective, the slow transition is governed by the principles of critical slowing, a robust natural phenomenon observable in systems characterized by transitions between dynamical regimes. In epilepsy, this process is modulated by the synchronous synaptic input from IEDs. IEDs are external perturbations that produce phasic changes in the slow transition process and exert opposing effects on the dynamics of a seizure-generating network, causing either anti-seizure or pro-seizure effects. We show that the multifaceted nature of IEDs is defined by the dynamical state of the network at the moment of the discharge occurrence

Geographic and ecologic heterogeneity in elimination thresholds for the major vector-borne helminthic disease, lymphatic filariasis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Large-scale intervention programmes to control or eliminate several infectious diseases are currently underway worldwide. However, a major unresolved question remains: what are reasonable stopping points for these programmes? Recent theoretical work has highlighted how the ecological complexity and heterogeneity inherent in the transmission dynamics of macroparasites can result in elimination thresholds that vary between local communities. Here, we examine the empirical evidence for this hypothesis and its implications for the global elimination of the major macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis, by applying a novel Bayesian computer simulation procedure to fit a dynamic model of the transmission of this parasitic disease to field data from nine villages with different ecological and geographical characteristics. Baseline lymphatic filariasis microfilarial age-prevalence data from three geographically distinct endemic regions, across which the major vector populations implicated in parasite transmission also differed, were used to fit and calibrate the relevant vector-specific filariasis transmission models. Ensembles of parasite elimination thresholds, generated using the Bayesian fitting procedure, were then examined in order to evaluate site-specific heterogeneity in the values of these thresholds and investigate the ecological factors that may underlie such variability</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We show that parameters of density-dependent functions relating to immunity, parasite establishment, as well as parasite aggregation, varied significantly between the nine different settings, contributing to locally varying filarial elimination thresholds. Parasite elimination thresholds predicted for the settings in which the mosquito vector is anopheline were, however, found to be higher than those in which the mosquito is culicine, substantiating our previous theoretical findings. The results also indicate that the probability that the parasite will be eliminated following six rounds of Mass Drug Administration with diethylcarbamazine and albendazole decreases markedly but non-linearly as the annual biting rate and parasite reproduction number increases.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This paper shows that specific ecological conditions in a community can lead to significant local differences in population dynamics and, consequently, elimination threshold estimates for lymphatic filariasis. These findings, and the difficulty of measuring the key local parameters (infection aggregation and acquired immunity) governing differences in transmission thresholds between communities, mean that it is necessary for us to rethink the utility of the current anticipatory approaches for achieving the elimination of filariasis both locally and globally.</p