Characterisation of large changes in wind power for the day-ahead market using a fuzzy logic approach

Wind power has become one of the renewable resources with a major growth in the electricity market. However, due to its inherent variability, forecasting techniques are necessary for the optimum scheduling of the electric grid, specially during ramp events. These large changes in wind power may not be captured by wind power point forecasts even with very high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. In this paper, a fuzzy approach for wind power ramp characterisation is presented. The main benefit of this technique is that it avoids the binary definition of ramp event, allowing to identify changes in power out- put that can potentially turn into ramp events when the total percentage of change to be considered a ramp event is not met. To study the application of this technique, wind power forecasts were obtained and their corresponding error estimated using Genetic Programming (GP) and Quantile Regression Forests. The error distributions were incorporated into the characterisation process, which according to the results, improve significantly the ramp capture. Results are presented using colour maps, which provide a useful way to interpret the characteristics of the ramp events

Water-Borne Cues of a Non-Indigenous Seaweed Mediate Grazer-Deterrent Responses in Native Seaweeds, but Not Vice Versa

Plants optimise their resistance to herbivores by regulating deterrent responses on demand. Induction of anti-herbivory defences can occur directly in grazed plants or from emission of risk cues to the environment, which modifies interactions of adjacent plants with, for instance, their consumers. This study confirmed the induction of anti-herbivory responses by water-borne risk cues between adjoining con-specific seaweeds and firstly examined whether plant-plant signalling also exists among adjacent hetero-specific seaweeds. Furthermore, differential abilities and geographic variation in plant-plant signalling by a non-indigenous seaweed as well as native seaweeds were assessed. Twelve-day induction experiments using the non-indigenous seaweed Sargassum muticum were conducted in the laboratory in Portugal and Germany with one local con-familiar (Portugal: Cystoseira humilis, Germany: Halidrys siliquosa) and hetero-familiar native species (Portugal: Fucus spiralis, Germany: F. vesiculosus). All seaweeds were grazed by a local isopod species (Portugal: Stenosoma nadejda, Germany: Idotea baltica) and were positioned upstream of con- and hetero-specific seaweeds. Grazing-induced modification in seaweed traits were tested in three-day feeding assays between cue-exposed and cue-free ( = control) pieces of both fresh and reconstituted seaweeds. Both Fucus species reduced their palatability when positioned downstream of isopod-grazed con-specifics. Yet, the palatability of non-indigenous S. muticum remained constant in the presence of upstream grazed con-specifics and native hetero-specifics. In contrast, both con-familiar (but neither hetero-familiar) native species reduced palatability when located downstream of grazed S. muticum. Similar patterns of grazer-deterrent responses to water-borne cues were observed on both European shores, and were almost identical between assays using fresh and reconstituted seaweeds. Hence, seaweeds may use plant-plant signalling to optimise chemical resistance to consumers, though this ability appeared to be species-specific. Furthermore, this study suggests that native species may benefit more than a non-indigenous species from water-borne cue mediated reduction in consumption as only natives responded to signals emitted by hetero-specifics

Species-speciWc defense strategies of vegetative versus reproductive blades of the PaciWc kelps Lessonia nigrescens and Macrocystis integrifolia

Chemical defense is assumed to be costly and therefore algae should allocate defense investments in a way to reduce costs and optimize their overall fitness. Thus, lifetime expectation of particular tissues and their contribution to the fitness of the alga may affect defense allocation. Two brown algae common to the SE Pacific coasts, Lessonia nigrescens Bory and Macrocystis integrifolia Bory, feature important ontogenetic differences in the development of reproductive structures; in L. nigrescens blade tissues pass from a vegetative stage to a reproductive stage, while in M. integrifolia reproductive and vegetative functions are spatially separated on different blades. We hypothesized that vegetative blades of L. nigrescens with important future functions are more (or equally) defended than reproductive blades, whereas in M. integrifolia defense should be mainly allocated to reproductive blades (sporophylls), which are considered to make a higher contribution to fitness. Herein, within-plant variation in susceptibility of reproductive and vegetative tissues to herbivory and in allocation of phlorotannins (phenolics) and N-compounds was compared. The results show that phlorotannin and N-concentrations were higher in reproductive blade tissues for both investigated algae. However, preferences by amphipod grazers (Parhyalella penai) for either tissue type differed between the two algal species. Fresh reproductive tissue of L. nigrescens was more consumed than vegetative tissue, while the reverse was found in M. integrifolia, thus confirming the original hypothesis. This suggests that future fitness function might indeed be a useful predictor of anti-herbivore defense in large, perennial kelps. Results from feeding assays with artificial pellets that were made with air-dried material and extract-treated Ulva powder indicated that defenses in live algae are probably not based on chemicals that can be extracted or remain intact after air-drying and grinding up algal tissues. Instead, anti-herbivore defense against amphipod mesograzers seems to depend on structural traits of living algae

The Pioneer Anomaly

Radio-metric Doppler tracking data received from the Pioneer 10 and 11 spacecraft from heliocentric distances of 20-70 AU has consistently indicated the presence of a small, anomalous, blue-shifted frequency drift uniformly changing with a rate of ~6 x 10^{-9} Hz/s. Ultimately, the drift was interpreted as a constant sunward deceleration of each particular spacecraft at the level of a_P = (8.74 +/- 1.33) x 10^{-10} m/s^2. This apparent violation of the Newton's gravitational inverse-square law has become known as the Pioneer anomaly; the nature of this anomaly remains unexplained. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge of the physical properties of the anomaly and the conditions that led to its detection and characterization. We review various mechanisms proposed to explain the anomaly and discuss the current state of efforts to determine its nature. A comprehensive new investigation of the anomalous behavior of the two Pioneers has begun recently. The new efforts rely on the much-extended set of radio-metric Doppler data for both spacecraft in conjunction with the newly available complete record of their telemetry files and a large archive of original project documentation. As the new study is yet to report its findings, this review provides the necessary background for the new results to appear in the near future. In particular, we provide a significant amount of information on the design, operations and behavior of the two Pioneers during their entire missions, including descriptions of various data formats and techniques used for their navigation and radio-science data analysis. As most of this information was recovered relatively recently, it was not used in the previous studies of the Pioneer anomaly, but it is critical for the new investigation.Comment: 165 pages, 40 figures, 16 tables; accepted for publication in Living Reviews in Relativit

Agronomic Management of Indigenous Mycorrhizas

Many of the advantages conferred to plants by arbuscular mycorrhiza (AM) are associated to the ability of AM plants to explore a greater volume of soil through the extraradical mycelium. Sieverding (1991) estimates that for each centimetre of colonized root there is an increase of 15 cm3 on the volume of soil explored, this value can increase to 200 cm3 depending on the circumstances. Due to the enhancement of the volume of soil explored and the ability of the extraradical mycelium to absorb and translocate nutrients to the plant, one of the most obvious and important advantages resulting from mycorrhization is the uptake of nutrients. Among of which the ones that have immobilized forms in soil, such as P, assume particular significance. Besides this, many other benefits are recognized for AM plants (Gupta et al, 2000): water stress alleviation (Augé, 2004; Cho et al, 2006), protection from root pathogens (Graham, 2001), tolerance to toxic heavy metals and phytoremediation (Audet and Charest, 2006; Göhre and Paszkowski, 2006), tolerance to adverse conditions such as very high or low temperature, high salinity (Sannazzaro et al, 2006), high or low pH (Yano and Takaki, 2005) or better performance during transplantation shock (Subhan et al, 1998). The extraradical hyphae also stabilize soil aggregates by both enmeshing soil particles (Miller e Jastrow, 1992) and producing a glycoprotein, golmalin, which may act as a glue-like substance to adhere soil particles together (Wright and Upadhyaya, 1998). Despite the ubiquous distribution of mycorrhizal fungi (Smith and Read, 2000) and only a relative specificity between host plants and fungal isolates (McGonigle and Fitter, 1990), the obligate nature of the symbiosis implies the establishment of a plant propagation system, either under greenhouse conditions or in vitro laboratory propagation. These techniques result in high inoculum production costs, which still remains a serious problem since they are not competitive with production costs of phosphorus fertilizer. Even if farmers understand the significance of sustainable agricultural systems, the reduction of phosphorus inputs by using AM fungal inocula alone cannot be justified except, perhaps, in the case of high value crops (Saioto and Marumoto, 2002). Nurseries, high income horticulture farmers and no-agricultural application such as rehabilitation of degraded or devegetated landscapes are examples of areas where the use of commercial inoculum is current. Another serious problem is quality of commercial available products concerning guarantee of phatogene free content, storage conditions, most effective application methods and what types to use. Besides the information provided by suppliers about its inoculum can be deceiving, as from the usually referred total counts, only a fraction may be effective for a particular plant or in specific soil conditions. Gianinazzi and Vosátka (2004) assume that progress should be made towards registration procedures that stimulate the development of the mycorrhizal industry. Some on-farm inoculum production and application methods have been studied, allowing farmers to produce locally adapted isolates and generate a taxonomically diverse inoculum (Mohandas et al, 2004; Douds et al, 2005). However the inocula produced this way are not readily processed for mechanical application to the fields, being an obstacle to the utilization in large scale agriculture, especially row crops, moreover it would represent an additional mechanical operation with the corresponding economic and soil compaction costs. It is well recognized that inoculation of AM fungi has a potential significance in not only sustainable crop production, but also environmental conservation. However, the status quo of inoculation is far from practical technology that can be widely used in the field. Together a further basic understanding of the biology and diversity of AM fungi is needed (Abbott at al, 1995; Saito and Marumoto, 2002). Advances in ecology during the past decade have led to a much more detailed understanding of the potential negative consequences of species introductions and the potential for negative ecological consequences of invasions by mycorrhizal fungi is poorly understood. Schwartz et al, (2006) recommend that a careful assessment documenting the need for inoculation, and the likelihood of success, should be conducted prior to inoculation because inoculations are not universally beneficial. Agricultural practices such as crop rotation, tillage, weed control and fertilizer apllication all produce changes in the chemical, physical and biological soil variables and affect the ecological niches available for occupancy by the soil biota, influencing in different ways the symbiosis performance and consequently the inoculum development, shaping changes and upset balance of native populations. The molecular biology tools developed in the latest years have been very important for our perception of these changes, ensuing awareness of management choice implications in AM development. In this context, for extensive farming systems and regarding environmental and economic costs, the identification of agronomic management practices that allow controlled manipulation of the fungal community and capitalization of AM mutualistic effect making use of local inoculum, seem to be a wise option for mycorrhiza promotion and development of sustainable crop production

Oral high dose ascorbic acid treatment for one year in young CMT1A patients: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase II trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>High dose oral ascorbic acid substantially improved myelination and locomotor function in a Charcot-Marie-Tooth type 1A mouse model. A phase II study was warranted to investigate whether high dose ascorbic acid also has such a substantial effect on myelination in Charcot-Marie-Tooth type 1A patients and whether this treatment is safe.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients below age 25 years were randomly assigned to receive placebo or ascorbic acid (one gram twice daily) in a double-blind fashion during one year. The primary outcome measure was the change over time in motor nerve conduction velocity of the median nerve. Secondary outcome measures included changes in minimal F response latencies, compound muscle action potential amplitude, muscle strength, sensory function, Charcot-Marie-Tooth neuropathy score, and disability.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were no significant differences between the six placebo-treated (median age 16 years, range 13 to 24) and the five ascorbic acid-treated (19, 14 to 24) patients in change in motor nerve conduction velocity of the median nerve (mean difference ascorbic acid as opposed to placebo treatment of 1.3 m/s, confidence interval -0.3 to 3.0 m/s, <it>P </it>= 0.11) or in change of any of the secondary outcome measures over time. One patient in the ascorbic acid group developed a skin rash, which led to discontinuation of the study medication.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Oral high dose ascorbic acid for one year did not improve myelination of the median nerve in young Charcot-Marie-Tooth type 1A patients. Treatment was relatively safe.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN56968278, ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00271635.</p

The Main Belt Comets and ice in the Solar System

We review the evidence for buried ice in the asteroid belt; specifically the questions around the so-called Main Belt Comets (MBCs). We summarise the evidence for water throughout the Solar System, and describe the various methods for detecting it, including remote sensing from ultraviolet to radio wavelengths. We review progress in the first decade of study of MBCs, including observations, modelling of ice survival, and discussion on their origins. We then look at which methods will likely be most effective for further progress, including the key challenge of direct detection of (escaping) water in these bodies

Replication Factor C Complexes Play Unique Pro- and Anti-Establishment Roles in Sister Chromatid Cohesion

Recent studies have lead to a rapid expansion of sister chromatid cohesion pathways. Of particular interest is the growth in classifications of anti-establishment factors—now including those that are cohesin-associated (Rad61/WAPL and Pds5) or DNA replication fork-associated (Elg1-RFC). In this study, we show that the two classes of anti-establishment complexes are indistinguishable when challenged both genetically and functionally. These findings suggest that both classes function in a singular pathway that is centered on Ctf7/Eco1 (herein termed Ctf7) regulation. The anti-establishment activity of Elg1-RFC complex is particular intriguing given that an alternate Ctf18-RFC complex exhibits robust pro-establishment activity. Here, we provide several lines of evidence, including the use of Ctf7 bypass suppressors, indicating that these activities are not simply antagonistic. Moreover, the results suggest that Ctf18-RFC is capable of promoting sister chromatid pairing reactions independent of Ctf7. The combination of these studies suggest a new model of sister chromatid pairing regulation

Physical inactivity in Parkinson’s disease

Patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD) are likely to become physically inactive, because of their motor, mental, and emotional symptoms. However, specific studies on physical activity in PD are scarce, and results are conflicting. Here, we quantified daily physical activities in a large cohort of PD patients and another large cohort of matched controls. Moreover, we investigated the influence of disease-related factors on daily physical activities in PD patients. Daily physical activity data of PD patients (n = 699) were collected in the ParkinsonNet trial and of controls (n = 1,959) in the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA); data were determined using the LAPAQ, a validated physical activity questionnaire. In addition, variables that may affect daily physical activities in PD were recorded, including motor symptoms, depression, disability in daily life, and comorbidity. Patients were physically less active; a reduction of 29% compared to controls (95% CI, 10–44%). Multivariate regression analyses demonstrated that greater disease severity, gait impairment, and greater disability in daily living were associated with less daily physical activity in PD (R2 = 24%). In this large study, we show that PD patients are about one-third less active compared to controls. While disease severity, gait, and disability in daily living predicted part of the inactivity, a portion of the variance remained unexplained, suggesting that additional determinants may also affect daily physical activities in PD. Because physical inactivity has many adverse consequences, work is needed to develop safe and enjoyable exercise programs for patients with PD