FluTE, a Publicly Available Stochastic Influenza Epidemic Simulation Model

Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development

Peripheral leukocyte profile in people with temporal lobe epilepsy reflects the associated proinflammatory state

INTRODUCTION: Markers of low-grade peripheral inflammation have been reported amongst people with epilepsy. The mechanisms underlying this phenomenon are unknown. We attempted to characterize peripheral immune cells and their activation status in people with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) and healthy controls. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty people with TLE and 19 controls were recruited, and peripheral blood lymphocyte and monocyte subsets evaluated ex vivo by multi-color flow cytometry. People with TLE had higher expression of HLA-DR, CD69, CTLA-4, CD25, IL-23R, IFN-γ, TNF and IL-17 in CD4(+) lymphocytes than controls. Granzyme A, CTLA-4, IL-23R and IL-17 expression was also elevated in CD8(+) T cells from people with TLE. Frequency of HLA-DR in CD19(+) B cells and regulatory T cells CD4(+)CD25(+)Foxp3(+) producing IL-10 was higher in TLE when compared with controls. A negative correlation between CD4(+) expressing co-stimulatory molecules (CD69, CD25 and CTLA-4) with age at onset of seizures was found. The frequency of CD4(+)CD25(+)Foxp3(+) cells was also positively correlated with age at onset of seizures. CONCLUSION: Immune cells of people with TLE show an activation profile, mainly in effector T cells, in line with the low-grade peripheral inflammation

Roles for Treg expansion and HMGB1 signaling through the TLR1-2-6 axis in determining the magnitude of the antigen-specific immune response to MVA85A

© 2013 Matsumiya et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are creditedA better understanding of the relationships between vaccine, immunogenicity and protection from disease would greatly facilitate vaccine development. Modified vaccinia virus Ankara expressing antigen 85A (MVA85A) is a novel tuberculosis vaccine candidate designed to enhance responses induced by BCG. Antigen-specific interferon-γ (IFN-γ) production is greatly enhanced by MVA85A, however the variability between healthy individuals is extensive. In this study we have sought to characterize the early changes in gene expression in humans following vaccination with MVA85A and relate these to long-term immunogenicity. Two days post-vaccination, MVA85A induces a strong interferon and inflammatory response. Separating volunteers into high and low responders on the basis of T cell responses to 85A peptides measured during the trial, an expansion of circulating CD4+ CD25+ Foxp3+ cells is seen in low but not high responders. Additionally, high levels of Toll-like Receptor (TLR) 1 on day of vaccination are associated with an increased response to antigen 85A. In a classification model, combined expression levels of TLR1, TICAM2 and CD14 on day of vaccination and CTLA4 and IL2Rα two days post-vaccination can classify high and low responders with over 80% accuracy. Furthermore, administering MVA85A in mice with anti-TLR2 antibodies may abrogate high responses, and neutralising antibodies to TLRs 1, 2 or 6 or HMGB1 decrease CXCL2 production during in vitro stimulation with MVA85A. HMGB1 is released into the supernatant following atimulation with MVA85A and we propose this signal may be the trigger activating the TLR pathway. This study suggests an important role for an endogenous ligand in innate sensing of MVA and demonstrates the importance of pattern recognition receptors and regulatory T cell responses in determining the magnitude of the antigen specific immune response to vaccination with MVA85A in humans.This work was funded by the Wellcome Trust. MM has a Wellcome Trust PhD studentship and HM is a Wellcome Trust Senior Fello

Emerging landscape of oncogenic signatures across human cancers.

Cancer therapy is challenged by the diversity of molecular implementations of oncogenic processes and by the resulting variation in therapeutic responses. Projects such as The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) provide molecular tumor maps in unprecedented detail. The interpretation of these maps remains a major challenge. Here we distilled thousands of genetic and epigenetic features altered in cancers to ∼500 selected functional events (SFEs). Using this simplified description, we derived a hierarchical classification of 3,299 TCGA tumors from 12 cancer types. The top classes are dominated by either mutations (M class) or copy number changes (C class). This distinction is clearest at the extremes of genomic instability, indicating the presence of different oncogenic processes. The full hierarchy shows functional event patterns characteristic of multiple cross-tissue groups of tumors, termed oncogenic signature classes. Targetable functional events in a tumor class are suggestive of class-specific combination therapy. These results may assist in the definition of clinical trials to match actionable oncogenic signatures with personalized therapies

Post-exposure prophylaxis during pandemic outbreaks

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>With the rise of the second pandemic wave of the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus in the current season in the Northern Hemisphere, pandemic plans are being carefully re-evaluated, particularly for the strategic use of antiviral drugs. The recent emergence of oseltamivir-resistant in treated H1N1 patients has raised concerns about the prudent use of neuraminidase inhibitors for both treatment of ill individuals and post-exposure prophylaxis of close contacts.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We extended an established population dynamical model of pandemic influenza with treatment to include post-exposure prophylaxis of close contacts. Using parameter estimates published in the literature, we simulated the model to evaluate the combined effect of treatment and prophylaxis in minimizing morbidity and mortality of pandemic infections in the context of transmissible drug resistance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We demonstrated that, when transmissible resistant strains are present, post-exposure prophylaxis can promote the spread of resistance, especially when combined with aggressive treatment. For a given treatment level, there is an optimal coverage of prophylaxis that minimizes the total number of infections (final size) and this coverage decreases as a higher proportion of infected individuals are treated. We found that, when treatment is maintained at intermediate levels, limited post-exposure prophylaxis provides an optimal strategy for reducing the final size of the pandemic while minimizing the total number of deaths. We tested our results by performing a sensitivity analysis over a range of key model parameters and observed that the incidence of infection depends strongly on the transmission fitness of resistant strains.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings suggest that, in the presence of transmissible drug resistance, strategies that prioritize the treatment of only ill individuals, rather than the prophylaxis of those suspected of being exposed, are most effective in reducing the morbidity and mortality of the pandemic. The impact of post-exposure prophylaxis depends critically on the treatment level and the transmissibility of resistant strains and, therefore, enhanced surveillance and clinical monitoring for resistant mutants constitutes a key component of any comprehensive plan for antiviral drug use during an influenza pandemic.</p

EGFR Inhibition in Glioma Cells Modulates Rho Signaling to Inhibit Cell Motility and Invasion and Cooperates with Temozolomide to Reduce Cell Growth

Enforced EGFR activation upon gene amplification and/or mutation is a common hallmark of malignant glioma. Small molecule EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors, such as erlotinib (Tarceva), have shown some activity in a subset of glioma patients in recent trials, although the reported data on the cellular basis of glioma cell responsiveness to these compounds have been contradictory. Here we have used a panel of human glioma cell lines, including cells with amplified or mutant EGFR, to further characterize the cellular effects of EGFR inhibition with erlotinib. Dose-response and cellular growth assays indicate that erlotinib reduces cell proliferation in all tested cell lines without inducing cytotoxic effects. Flow cytometric analyses confirm that EGFR inhibition does not induce apoptosis in glioma cells, leading to cell cycle arrest in G1. Interestingly, erlotinib also prevents spontaneous multicellular tumour spheroid growth in U87MG cells and cooperates with sub-optimal doses of temozolomide (TMZ) to reduce multicellular tumour spheroid growth. This cooperation appears to be schedule-dependent, since pre-treatment with erlotinib protects against TMZ-induced cytotoxicity whereas concomitant treatment results in a cooperative effect. Cell cycle arrest in erlotinib-treated cells is associated with an inhibition of ERK and Akt signaling, resulting in cyclin D1 downregulation, an increase in p27kip1 levels and pRB hypophosphorylation. Interestingly, EGFR inhibition also perturbs Rho GTPase signaling and cellular morphology, leading to Rho/ROCK-dependent formation of actin stress fibres and the inhibition of glioma cell motility and invasion

Modelers' Perception of Mathematical Modeling in Epidemiology: A Web-Based Survey

International audienceBackground: Mathematical modeling in epidemiology (MME) is being used increasingly. However, there are many uncertainties in terms of definitions, uses and quality features of MME. Methodology/Principal Findings: To delineate the current status of these models, a 10-item questionnaire on MME was devised. Proposed via an anonymous internet-based survey, the questionnaire was completed by 189 scientists who had published in the domain of MME. A small minority (18%) of respondents claimed to have in mind a concise definition of MME. Some techniques were identified by the researchers as characterizing MME (e.g. Markov models), while others–at the same level of sophistication in terms of mathematics–were not (e.g. Cox regression). The researchers' opinions were also contrasted about the potential applications of MME, perceived as higly relevant for providing insight into complex mechanisms and less relevant for identifying causal factors. The quality criteria were those of good science and were not related to the size and the nature of the public health problems addressed. Conclusions/Significance: This study shows that perceptions on the nature, uses and quality criteria of MME are contrasted, even among the very community of published authors in this domain. Nevertheless, MME is an emerging discipline in epidemiology and this study underlines that it is associated with specific areas of application and methods. The development of this discipline is likely to deserve a framework providing recommendations and guidance at various steps of the studies, from design to report

Exploring medical student learning in the large group teaching environment: examining current practice to inform curricular development

Background Lectures continue to be an efficient and standardised way to deliver information to large groups of students. It has been well documented that students prefer interactive lectures, based on active learning principles, to didactic teaching in the large group setting. Despite this, it is often the case than many students do not engage with active learning tasks and attempts at interaction. By exploring student experiences, expectations and how they use lectures in their learning we will provide recommendations for faculty to support student learning both in the lecture theatre and during personal study time. Methods This research employed a hermeneutic phenomenological approach. Three focus groups, consisting of 19 students in total, were used to explore the experiences of second year medical students in large group teaching sessions. Using generic thematic data analysis, these accounts have been developed into a meaningful account of experience. Results This study found there to be a well-established learning culture amongst students and with it, expectations as to the format of teaching sessions. Furthermore, there were set perceptions about the student role within the learning environment which had many implications, including the way that innovative teaching methods were received. Student learning was perceived to take place outside the lecture theatre, with a large emphasis placed on creating resources that can be taken away to use in personal study time. Conclusions Presented here is a constructive review of reasons for student participation, interaction and engagement in large group teaching sessions. Based on this are recommendations constructed with the view to aid educators in engaging students within this setting. Short term, educators can implement strategies that monopolise on the established learning culture of students to encourage engagement with active learning strategies. Long term, it would be beneficial for educators to consider ways to shift the current student learning culture to one that embraces an active learning curriculum

Detection of Gamma-Ray Emission from the Starburst Galaxies M82 and NGC 253 with the Large Area Telescope on Fermi

We report the detection of high-energy gamma-ray emission from two starburst galaxies using data obtained with the Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. Steady point-like emission above 200 MeV has been detected at significance levels of 6.8 sigma and 4.8 sigma respectively, from sources positionally coincident with locations of the starburst galaxies M82 and NGC 253. The total fluxes of the sources are consistent with gamma-ray emission originating from the interaction of cosmic rays with local interstellar gas and radiation fields and constitute evidence for a link between massive star formation and gamma-ray emission in star-forming galaxies.Comment: Submitted to ApJ Letter

Fermi Gamma-ray Imaging of a Radio Galaxy

The Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope has detected the gamma-ray glow emanating from the giant radio lobes of the radio galaxy Centaurus A. The resolved gamma-ray image shows the lobes clearly separated from the central active source. In contrast to all other active galaxies detected so far in high-energy gamma-rays, the lobe flux constitutes a considerable portion (>1/2) of the total source emission. The gamma-ray emission from the lobes is interpreted as inverse Compton scattered relic radiation from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), with additional contribution at higher energies from the infrared-to-optical extragalactic background light (EBL). These measurements provide gamma-ray constraints on the magnetic field and particle energy content in radio galaxy lobes, and a promising method to probe the cosmic relic photon fields.Comment: 27 pages, includes Supplementary Online Material; corresponding authors: C.C. Cheung, Y. Fukazawa, J. Knodlseder, L. Stawar