Multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing uncertainty in coastal flooding

When choosing an appropriate hydrodynamic model, there is always a compromise between accuracy and computational cost, with high-fidelity models being more expensive than low-fidelity ones. However, when assessing uncertainty, we can use a multifidelity approach to take advantage of the accuracy of high-fidelity models and the computational efficiency of low-fidelity models. Here, we apply the multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo method (MLMF) to quantify uncertainty by computing statistical estimators of key output variables with respect to uncertain input data, using the high-fidelity hydrodynamic model XBeach and the lower-fidelity coastal flooding model SFINCS (Super-Fast INundation of CoastS). The multilevel aspect opens up the further advantageous possibility of applying each of these models at multiple resolutions. This work represents the first application of MLMF in the coastal zone and one of its first applications in any field. For both idealised and real-world test cases, MLMF can significantly reduce computational cost for the same accuracy compared to both the standard Monte Carlo method and to a multilevel approach utilising only a single model (the multilevel Monte Carlo method). In particular, here we demonstrate using the case of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, USA, that this improvement in computational efficiency allows for in-depth uncertainty analysis to be conducted in the case of real-world coastal environments – a task that would previously have been practically unfeasible. Moreover, for the first time, we show how an inverse transform sampling technique can be used to accurately estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of variables from the MLMF outputs. MLMF-based estimates of the expectations and the CDFs of the variables of interest are of significant value to decision makers when assessing uncertainty in predictions

Neuromuscular Blockade with Rocuronium Bromide Increases the Tolerance of Acute Normovolemic Anemia in Anesthetized Pigs

Background: The patient's individual anemia tolerance is pivotal when blood transfusions become necessary, but are not feasible for some reason. To date, the effects of neuromuscular blockade (NMB) on anemia tolerance have not been investigated. Methods: 14 anesthetized and mechanically ventilated pigs were randomly assigned to the Roc group (3.78 mg/kg rocuronium bromide followed by continuous infusion of 1 mg/kg/min, n = 7) or to the Sal group (administration of the corresponding volume of normal saline, n = 7). Subsequently, acute normovolemic anemia was induced by simultaneous exchange of whole blood for a 6% hydroxyethyl starch solution (130/0.4) until a sudden decrease of total body O-2 consumption (VO2) indicated a critical limitation of O-2 transport capacity. The Hb concentration quantified at this time point (Hb(crit)) was the primary end-point of the protocol. Secondary endpoints were parameters of hemodynamics, O-2 transport and tissue oxygenation. Results: Hb(crit) was significantly lower in the Roc group (2.4 +/- 0.5 vs. 3.2 +/- 0.7 g/dl) reflecting increased anemia tolerance. NMB with rocuronium bromide reduced skeletal muscular VO2 and total body O-2 extraction rate. As the cardiac index increased simultaneously, total body VO2 only decreased marginally in the Roc group (change of VO2 relative to baseline -1.7 +/- 0.8 vs. 3.2 +/- 1.9% in the Sal group, p < 0.05). Conclusion: Deep NMB with rocuronium bromide increases the tolerance of acute normovolemic anemia. The underlying mechanism most likely involves a reduction of skeletal muscular VO2. During acellular treatment of an acute blood loss, NMB might play an adjuvant role in situations where profound stages of normovolemic anemia have to be tolerated (e.g. bridging an unexpected blood loss until blood products become available for transfusion). Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Base

Molecular detection of Leishmania infantum, filariae and Wolbachia spp. in dogs from southern Portugal

Background: Leishmaniosis caused by the protozoan Leishmania infantum and dirofilariosis caused by the nematodes Dirofilaria immitis or Dirofilaria repens are vector-borne zoonoses widely present in the Mediterranean basin. In addition, some studies reported that the endosymbiont Wolbachia spp. play a role in the biology and pathogenesis of filarial parasites. The aim of this work was to evaluate the frequency of mono-and co-infections by L. infantum, filariae and Wolbachia spp. and their association with clinical signs in dogs from the south of Portugal. Leishmanial, filarial and Wolbachia spp. DNA were evaluated by specific real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays in blood samples from 230 dogs.Findings: One hundred and thirty-nine (60.4 %) dogs were qPCR-positive for L. infantum and 26 (11.3 %) for filariae (24 for D. immitis only, one D. immitis and for Acanthocheilonema dracunculoides and another one for Acanthocheilonema reconditum only). Wolbachia spp. DNA was amplified from 16 (64.0 %) out of the 25 D. immitis-positive dogs. Nineteen (8.3 %) dogs were co-infected with L. infantum and D. immitis, including the one (0.4 %) A. drancunculoides-positive animal. In dogs without clinical signs consistent with leishmaniosis and/or dirofilariosis, L. infantum prevalence was 69 %, whereas in those dogs with at least one clinical manifestation compatible with any of the two parasitoses prevalence was 42.7 %. Leishmania prevalence was significantly higher in apparently healthy mongrels (77.2 %) and pets (76.9 %) than in defined-breed dogs (including crosses; 58.8 %) and in dogs with an aptitude other than pet (i.e. farm, guard, hunting, shepherd or stray), respectively, whereas in those dogs with at least one clinical sign, the detection of L. infantum DNA was higher in males (53.3 %) and in those dogs not receiving insect repellents (52.8 %).Conclusions: The molecular detection of canine vector-borne disease (CVBD) agents, some of which are zoonotic, reinforces the need to implement efficient prophylactic measures, such as insect repellents and macrocyclic lactones (including compliance to administration), in the geographical areas where these agents are distributed, with the view to prevent infection and disease among mammalian hosts including humans

Plant Community Diversity Influences Allocation to Direct Chemical Defence in Plantago lanceolata

Background: Forecasting the consequences of accelerating rates of changes in biodiversity for ecosystem functioning requires a mechanistic understanding of the relationships between the structure of biological communities and variation in plant functional characteristics. So far, experimental data of how plant species diversity influences the investment of individual plants in direct chemical defences against herbivores and pathogens is lacking. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used Plantago lanceolata as a model species in experimental grasslands differing in species richness and composition (Jena Experiment) to investigate foliar concentrations of the iridoid glycosides (IG), catalpol and its biosynthetic precursor aucubin. Total IG and aucubin concentrations decreased, while catalpol concentrations increased with increasing plant diversity in terms of species or functional group richness. Negative plant diversity effects on total IG and aucubin concentrations correlated with increasing specific leaf area of P. lanceolata, suggesting that greater allocation to light acquisition reduced the investment into these carbon-based defence components. In contrast, increasing leaf nitrogen concentrations best explained increasing concentrations of the biosynthetically more advanced IG, catalpol. Observed levels of leaf damage explained a significant proportion of variation in total IG and aucubin concentrations, but did not account for variance in catalpol concentrations. Conclusions/Significance: Our results clearly show that plants growing in communities of varying species richness an

Disturbance and Recovery of Salt Marsh Arthropod Communities following BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

Oil spills represent a major environmental threat to coastal wetlands, which provide a variety of critical ecosystem services to humanity. The U.S. Gulf of Mexico is a hub of oil and gas exploration activities that historically have impacted intertidal habitats such as salt marsh. Following the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill, we sampled the terrestrial arthropod community and marine invertebrates found in stands of Spartina alterniflora, the most abundant plant in coastal salt marshes. Sampling occurred in 2010 as oil was washing ashore and a year later in 2011. In 2010, intertidal crabs and terrestrial arthropods (insects and spiders) were suppressed by oil exposure even in seemingly unaffected stands of plants; however, Littoraria snails were unaffected. One year later, crab and arthropods had largely recovered. Our work is the first attempt that we know of assessing vulnerability of the salt marsh arthropod community to oil exposure, and it suggests that arthropods are both quite vulnerable to oil exposure and quite resilient, able to recover from exposure within a year if host plants remain healthy

A Novel Animal Model of Borrelia recurrentis Louse-Borne Relapsing Fever Borreliosis Using Immunodeficient Mice

Louse-borne relapsing fever (LBRF) borreliosis is caused by Borrelia recurrentis, and it is a deadly although treatable disease that is endemic in the Horn of Africa but has epidemic potential. Research on LBRF has been severely hampered because successful infection with B. recurrentis has been achieved only in primates (i.e., not in other laboratory or domestic animals). Here, we present the first non-primate animal model of LBRF, using SCID (-B, -T cells) and SCID BEIGE (-B, -T, -NK cells) immunocompromised mice. These animals were infected with B. recurrentis A11 or A17, or with B. duttonii 1120K3 as controls. B. recurrentis caused a relatively mild but persistent infection in SCID and SCID BEIGE mice, but did not proliferate in NUDE (-T) and BALB/c (wild-type) mice. B. duttonii was infectious but not lethal in all animals. These findings demonstrate that the immune response can limit relapsing fever even in the absence of humoral defense mechanisms. To study the significance of phagocytic cells in this context, we induced systemic depletion of such cells in the experimental mice by injecting them with clodronate liposomes, which resulted in uncontrolled B. duttonii growth and a one-hundred-fold increase in B. recurrentis titers in blood. This observation highlights the role of macrophages and other phagocytes in controlling relapsing fever infection. B. recurrentis evolved from B. duttonii to become a primate-specific pathogen that has lost the ability to infect immunocompetent rodents, probably through genetic degeneration. Here, we describe a novel animal model of B. recurrentis based on B- and T-cell-deficient mice, which we believe will be very valuable in future research on LBRF. Our study also reveals the importance of B-cells and phagocytes in controlling relapsing fever infection

RNAi screening identifies Trypanosoma brucei stress response protein kinases required for survival in the mouse

Protein kinases (PKs) are a class of druggable targets in Trypanosoma brucei, the causative agent of Human African Trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness), yet little is known about which PKs are essential for survival in mammals. A recent kinome-wide RNAi screen with 176 individual bloodstream form Trypanosoma brucei lines identified PKs required for proliferation in culture. In order to assess which PKs are also potential virulence factors essential in vivo, lines were pooled, inoculated into mice, and screened for loss of fitness after 48 h RNAi. The presence of trypanosomes in the bloodstream was assessed using RNAi target sequencing (RITseq) and compared to growth in culture. We identified 49 PKs with a significant loss of fitness in vivo in two independent experiments, and a strong correlation between in vitro and in vivo loss of fitness for the majority. Nine PKs had a more pronounced growth defect in vivo, than in vitro. Amongst these PKs were several with putative functions related to stress responses mediated through the PI3K/TOR or MAPK signaling cascades, which act to protect the parasite from complement-mediated and osmotic lysis. Identification of these virulence-associated PKs provides new insights into T. brucei-host interaction and reveals novel potential protein kinase drug targets

Upregulation of MAPK pathway is associated with survival in castrate-resistant prostate cancer

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence has implicated the MAP kinase (MAPK) pathway with the development of castrate-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). We have previously reported gene amplification of critical members of this pathway with the development of castrate-resistant disease. In addition, we have shown that rising Raf-1 expression, with the development of CRPC, influences time to biochemical relapse. We therefore sought to further analyse the role of both Raf-1 and its downstream target MAPK in the molecular pathogenesis of CRPC. METHODS: Protein expression of Raf-1 and MAPK, including their activation status, was analysed using immunohistochemistry in a database of 65 paired tumour specimens obtained before and after the development of CRPC and correlated with other members of the pathway. RESULTS: Patients whose nuclear expression of MAPK rose with the development of CRPC had a significantly shorter median time to death following biochemical relapse (1.40 vs 3.00 years, P=0.0255) as well as reduced disease-specific survival when compared with those whose expression fell or remained unchanged (1.16 vs 2.62 years, P=0.0005). Significant correlations were observed between protein expression of Raf-1 and MAPK with the type 1 receptor tyrosine kinases, Her2 and epidermal growth factor receptor, as well as the transcription factor AP-1 in CRPC tumours. CONCLUSION: We conclude that the Her2/Raf-1/MAPK/AP-1 axis may promote the development of CRPC, leading to early relapse, and reduced disease-specific survival. In addition, members of the pathway may act as novel therapeutic and/or diagnostic targets for prostate cancer. British Journal of Cancer (2011) 104, 1920-1928. doi:10.1038/bjc.2011.163 www.bjcancer.com Published online 10 May 2011 (C) 2011 Cancer Research U