Atmospheric controls on mineral dust emission from the Bodélé Depression, Chad: The role of the low level jet

Atmospheric aerosols play an important though uncertain role in the Earth's climate system. The Bodélé Depression in Chad stands out as the planet's largest source of dust, yet very little is known about the atmospheric circulation that maintain this source. We investigate what key large-scale features of the circulation over the Bodélé account for its primacy as a mineral aerosol source. We show, for the first time, the structure and characteristics of the Bodélé Low Level Jet (LLJ) which has a maximum speed near 18°N, 19°E at 925 hPa. It is strongest in the northern winter, receding with the advance of summer in phase with dustiness in the Bodélé. Variability of dust over the Bodélé occurs contemporaneously with the ridging of the Libyan High and pulsing of the pressure gradient which drives the northeasterlies in which the LLJ is embedded

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources – preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results

This paper presents a preface to this Special Issue on the results of the QUEST-GSI (Global Scale Impacts) project on climate change impacts on catchment-scale water resources. A detailed description of the unified methodology, subsequently used in all studies in this issue, is provided. The project method involved running simulations of catchment-scale hydrology using a unified set of past and future climate scenarios, to enable a consistent analysis of the climate impacts around the globe. These scenarios include "policy-relevant" prescribed warming scenarios. This is followed by a synthesis of the key findings. Overall, the studies indicate that in most basins the models project substantial changes to river flow, beyond that observed in the historical record, but that in many cases there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes. The implications of this for adaptation activities are discussed

Uncertainty assessment in river flow projections for Ethiopia’s Upper Awash Basin using multiple GCMs and hydrological models

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge in the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, is assessed using five MIKE SHE hydrological models, six CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios for the period 2071–2100. Hydrological models vary in their spatial distribution and process representations of unsaturated and saturated zones. Very good performance is achieved for 1975–1999 (NSE: 0.65–0.8; r: 0.79–0.93). GCM-related uncertainty dominates variability in projections of high and mean discharges (mean: –34% to +55% for RCP4.5,–2% to +195% for RCP8.5). Although GCMs dominate uncertainty in projected low flows, inter-hydrological model uncertainty is considerable (RCP4.5: –60% to +228%, RCP8.5: –86% to +337%). Analysis of variance uncertainty attribution reveals that GCM-related uncertainty occupies, on average, 68% of total uncertainty for median and high flows and hydrological models no more than 1%. For low flows, hydrological model uncertainty occupies, on average, 18% of total uncertainty; GCM-related uncertainty remains substantial (average: 28%)

Genetic structure and admixture in sheep from terminal breeds in the United States

Selection for performance in diverse production settings has resulted in variation across sheep breeds worldwide. Although sheep are an important species to the United States, the current genetic relationship among many terminal sire breeds is not well characterized. Suffolk, Hampshire, Shropshire and Oxford (terminal) and Rambouillet (dual purpose) sheep (n = 248) sampled from different flocks were genotyped using the Applied Biosystems Axiom Ovine Genotyping Array (50K), and additional Shropshire sheep (n = 26) using the Illumina Ovine SNP50 BeadChip. Relationships were investigated by calculating observed heterozygosity, inbreeding coefficients, eigenvalues, pairwise Wright’s FST estimates and an identity by state matrix. The mean observed heterozygosity for each breed ranged from 0.30 to 0.35 and was consistent with data reported in other US and Australian sheep. Suffolk from two different regions of the United States (Midwest and West) clustered separately in eigenvalue plots and the rectangular cladogram. Further, divergence was detected between Suffolk from different regions with Wright’s FST estimate. Shropshire animals showed the greatest divergence from other terminal breeds in this study. Admixture between breeds was examined using ADMIXTURE, and based on cross-validation estimates, the best fit number of populations (clusters) was K = 6. The greatest admixture was observed within Hampshire, Suffolk, and Shropshire breeds. When plotting eigenvalues, US terminal breeds clustered separately in comparison with sheep from other locations of the world. Understanding the genetic relationships between terminal sire breeds in sheep will inform us about the potential applicability of markers derived in one breed to other breeds based on relatedness

The summertime Saharan heat low: Sensitivity of the radiation budget and atmospheric heating to water vapour and dust aerosol

The Saharan heat low (SHL) is a key component of the West African climate system and an important driver of the West African Monsoon across a range of timescales of variability. The physical mechanisms driving the variability in the SHL remain uncertain, although water vapour has been implicated as of primary importance. Here, we quantify the independent effects of variability in dust and water vapour on the radiation budget and atmospheric heating of the region using a radiative transfer model configured with observational input data from the Fennec field campaign at the location of Bordj Badji Mokhtar (BBM) in southern Algeria (0.9E, 21.4N), close to the SHL core, for June 2011. Overall, we find dust aerosol and water vapour to be of similar importance in driving variability in the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiation budget and therefore the column integrated heating over the SHL (~7 W m-² per standard deviation of dust AOD). As such we infer that SHL intensity is likely to be similarly enhanced by the effects of dust and water vapour surge events. However, the details of the processes differ. Dust generates substantial radiative cooling at the surface (~11 W m-² per standard deviation of dust AOD), presumably leading to reduced sensible heat flux into the boundary layer, which is more than compensated by direct radiative heating from SW absorption by dust in the dusty boundary layer. In contrast water vapour invokes a longwave radiative warming of at the surface of ~6 W m-² per standard deviation of column integrated water vapour in Kg m-² . Net effects involve a pronounced net atmospheric radiative convergence with heating rates on average of 0.5 K day-¹ and up to 6 K day-¹ during synoptic/meso-scale dust events from monsoon surges and convective cold pool outflows (‘haboobs’). On this basis we make inferences on the processes driving variability in the SHL associated with radiative and advective heating/cooling. Depending on the synoptic context over the region processes driving variability involve both independent effects of water vapour and dust and compensating events in which dust and water vapour are co-varying. Forecast models typically have biases of up to 2 kg m-² in column integrated water vapour (equivalent to a change in 2.6 W m-² TOA net flux) and typically lack variability in dust, and so are expected to poorly represent these couplings. An improved representation dust and water vapour and quantification of associated radiative impact is thus imperative in quest for the answer to what remains to be uncertain related with the climate system of the SHL region

Estimating the impact of HIV PrEP regimens containing long-acting injectable cabotegravir or daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine among men who have sex with men in the United States: a mathematical modelling study for HPTN 083

Background: The HPTN 083 trial demonstrated superiority of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) containing long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB) to daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) among men who have sex with men (MSM). We compared the potential population-level impact of TDF/FTC and CAB among MSM in Atlanta, Georgia. Methods: An MSM HIV transmission model was calibrated to Atlanta-specific data on HIV prevalence and PrEP usage (percentage of uninfected MSM on PrEP), assuming only PrEP-indicated MSM used PrEP. CAB effectiveness (efficacy × adherence) of 91% was estimated using data from HPTN 083 and previous TDF/FTC trials. We estimated HIV infections averted over 5/10 years if TDF/FTC use were maintained, or if all TDF/FTC users switched to CAB in January 2022 (vs. no PrEP or continued TDF/FTC use). CAB scenarios with 10%/20% more users were also considered. Progress towards Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) goals (75%/90% fewer HIV infections in 2025/2030 vs. 2017) was estimated. Findings: We predicted TDF/FTC at current usage (∼28%) would avert 36.3% of new HIV infections (95% credible interval 25.6–48.7%) among all Atlanta MSM over 2022–2026 vs. no PrEP. Switching to CAB with similar usage may prevent 44.6% (33.2–56.6%) infections vs. no PrEP and 11.9% (5.2–20.2%) infections vs. continued TDF/FTC. Increasing CAB usage 20% could increase the incremental impact over TDF/FTC to 30.0% over 2022–2026, getting ∼60% towards reaching EHE goals (47%/54% fewer infections in 2025/2030). Reaching the 2030 EHE goal would require 93% CAB usage. Interpretation: If CAB effectiveness were like HPTN 083, CAB could prevent more infections than TDF/FTC at similar usage. Increased CAB usage could contribute substantially towards reaching EHE goals, but the usage required to meet EHE goals is unrealistic

A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2°C, followed by stabilisation to 4°C