Uncertainty And Risk Analysis Of Macroeconomic Forecasts: Fan Charts Revisited

Since 1996 the Bank of England (BoE) has been publishing estimates of probability distribution of the future outcomes of inflation and output growth. These density forecasts, known as "fan charts", became very popular with other central banks (e.g. Riskbank) as a tool to quantify uncertainties and risks of conditional point forecasts. The BoE's procedure is mainly a methodology to determine the distribution of a linear combination of independent random variables. In this article we propose an alternative methodology that addresses two issues with the BoE procedure that may affect the estimation of the densities. The first issue relates to a statistical shortcut taken by the BoE that implicitly considers that the mode of the linear combination of random variables is the (same) linear combination of the modes of those variables. The second issue deals with the assumption of independence, which may be restrictive. An illustration of the new methodology is presented and its results compared with the BoE approach.

Some notes regarding distributional analysis of spatial data

The purpose of geostatistics and other quantitative spatial analysis methods is the characterization of the processes having generated the spatial distribution of archaeological data. In this paper1 we investigate whether such methods can be used to distinguish the regularity or randomness of the social event or events having generated the observed spatial distribution. Our hypothesis is that only statistically significant deviations from spatial randomness can be interpreted as intentional clustering. Archaeological data distributions are best characterized in terms of spatial processes which are symmetrical around a central mean

New views on old hands: the context of stencils in El Castillo and La Garma Caves (Cantabria, Spain)

Hand stencils are an intriguing feature of prehistoric imagery in caves and rockshelters in several parts of the world, and the recent demonstration that the oldest of those in Western Europe date back to 37 000 years or earlier further enhances their significance. Their positioning within the painted caves of France and Spain is far from random, but responds to the shapes and fissures in the cave walls. Made under conditions of low and flickering light, the authors suggest that touch—‘palpation’—as much as vision, would have driven and directed the locations chosen for these stencils. Detailed study of the images in two Cantabrian caves also allows different individuals to be distinguished, most of whom appear to have been female. Finally, the project reveals deliberate associations between the stencils and features on the cave walls

Obtendo significados a partir das proximidades entre os conceitos em uma rede conceitual

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Oromucosal Alginate Films with Zein Nanoparticles as a Novel Delivery System for Digoxin

Digoxin is a hydrophobic drug used for the treatment of heart failure that possesses a narrow therapeutic index, which raises safety concerns for toxicity. This is of utmost relevance in specific populations, such as the elderly. This study aimed to demonstrate the potential of the sodium alginate films as buccal drug delivery system containing zein nanoparticles incorporated with digoxin to reduce the number of doses, facilitating the administration with a quick onset of action. The film was prepared using the solvent casting method, whereas nanoparticles by the nanoprecipitation method. The nanoparticles incorporated with digoxin (0.25 mg/mL) exhibited a mean size of 87.20 ± 0.88 nm, a polydispersity index of 0.23 ± 0.00, and a zeta potential of 21.23 ± 0.07 mV. Digoxin was successfully encapsulated into zein nanoparticles with an encapsulation efficiency of 91% (±0.00). Films with/without glycerol and with different concentrations of ethanol were produced. The sodium alginate (SA) films with 10% ethanol demonstrated good performance for swelling (maximum of 1474%) and mechanical properties, with a mean tensile strength of 0.40 ± 0.04 MPa and an elongation at break of 27.85% (±0.58), compatible with drug delivery application into the buccal mucosa. The current study suggests that SA films with digoxin-loaded zein nanoparticles can be an effective alternative to the dosage forms available on the market for digoxin administration

Significance Of Assessment Experiences During Initial Teacher Training In Physical Education

This study investigates how students in the final semester of their teacher training program (licensure) at the Center of Physical Education and Sports (CEFD), Espírito Santo Federal University, Brazil, (re)interpret their assessment experiences, an integral component of their teacher training. It employs the narrative as a theoretical and methodological perspective, and it utilizes student portfolios, as well as focus groups and semi-structured individual interviews as inputs for data generation. Ten students in their eighth, or final, semester participated in this study. These were the total respondents to a "call for volunteers" among the 2014 graduating class. The results suggest that the students believe the assessment processes of their teaching practices in physical education are disjointed. They feel that the disciplines that allow them to review their own performance during teacher training are more efficient and play a stronger role in their education.221627

Multiple Species And Deep Genomic Divergences Despite Little Phenotypic Differentiation In An Ancient Neotropical Songbird, Tunchiornis Ochraceiceps (Sclater, 1860) (Aves: Vireonidae)

Several bird taxa have been recently described or elevated to full species and almost twice as many bird species than are currently recognized may exist. Defining species is one of the most basic and important issues in biological science because unknown or poorly defined species hamper subsequent studies. Here, we evaluate the species limits and evolutionary history of Tunchiornis ochraceiceps-a widespread forest songbird that occurs in the lowlands of Central America, Choco and Amazonia-using an integrative approach that includes plumage coloration, morphometrics, vocalization and genomic data. The species has a relatively old crown age (similar to 9 Ma) and comprises several lineages with little, if any, evidence of gene flow among them. We propose a taxonomic arrangement composed of four species, three with a plumage coloration diagnosis and one deeply divergent cryptic species. Most of the remaining lineages have variable but unfixed phenotypic characters despite their relatively old origin. This decoupling of genomic and phenotypic differentiation reveals a remarkable case of phenotypic conservatism, possibly due to strict habitat association. Lineages are geographically delimited by the main Amazonian rivers and the Andes, a pattern observed in studies of other understory upland forest Neotropical birds, although phylogenetic relationships and divergence times among populations are idiosyncratic

PRODUCCIÓN DE TOMATE EN INVERNADERO CON COMPOSTA Y VERMICOMPOSTA COMO SUSTRATO

The organic production of food is an alternative for consumers that prefer food free of pesticides, synthetic fertilisers, and with a high nutritional value. The purpose of this study was to evaluate substrates prepared with mixtures of compost and vermicompost with sand, at various levels, under greenhouse conditions. The tomato hybrid SUN-7705 (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill) was analized in four substrates that included compost and vermicompost mixed at three different proportions (100, 75 y 50 %). The treatments were distributed in a completely randomised design with a factorial arrangement of 4x3 and five replicates. The greatest average yield (39.811 t ha) was obtained with the compost generated by decomposing bovine manure, corn stover (Zea mays L.), elephant grass (Pennisetum purpureum Schumacher) and black earth (CEMZT) at 75% + sand, and with the vermicompost generated by manure, bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum Flügge) and black earth (VEPT) at 100 and 50% + sand. This yield was greater than that recorded for organic tomato production in the field, without affecting the quality of the fruit

Imagem corporal e doenças do comportamento alimentar

As Doenças do Comportamento Alimentar (DCA) devem ser entendidas numa perspectiva multidimensional, valorizando-se o contexto biopsicossocial. Nestas patologias é o corpo, em primeira instância, que revela a doença, sendo desta forma o alvo de expressão do conflito. Apresenta uma vivência perturbada e uma fraca estruturação da Imagem Corporal. Esta entende-se como a construção subjectiva que o indivíduo formula na sua mente, acerca do seu corpo, em interacção com os diferentes contextos de vida. Os estudos neste âmbito visam, por este motivo, a compreensão do grau do distúrbio da Imagem Corporal nas DCA, tendo vindo a concluir que na generalidade dos casos não existem alterações na capacidade perceptiva destes doentes. Desta forma é necessário desenvolver estudos qualitativos, re forçando a análise dos factores subjectivos e afectivos. As autoras propõem-se com esta revisão bibliográfica, realizar um levantamento de instrumentos de avaliação para as DCA (especificamente para a Anorexia Nervosa e Bulimia Nervosa) e Imagem Corporal, de modo a que seja possível a sua adaptação e implementação na população Portuguesa