The risk of fall-related hospitalisations at entry into permanent residential aged care

Background: Entering permanent residential aged care (PRAC) is a vulnerable time for individuals. While falls risk assessment tools exist, these have not leveraged routinely collected and integrated information from the Australian aged and health care sectors. Our study examined individual, system, medication, and health care related factors at PRAC entry that are predictors of fall-related hospitalisations and developed a risk assessment tool using integrated aged and health care data. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on N=32,316 individuals ≥65 years old who entered a PRAC facility (01/01/2009-31/12/2016). Fall-related hospitalisations within 90 or 365days were the outcomes of interest. Individual, system, medication, and health care-related factors were examined as predictors. Risk prediction models were developed using elastic nets penalised regression and Fine and Gray models. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) assessed model discrimination. Results: 64.2% (N =20,757) of the cohort were women and the median age was 85 years old (interquartile range 80-89). After PRAC entry, 3.7% (N =1209) had a fall-related hospitalisation within 90days and 9.8% (N =3156) within 365days. Twenty variables contributed to fall-related hospitalisation prediction within 90days and the strongest predictors included fracture history (sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR)=1.87, 95% confdence interval (CI) 1.63-2.15), falls history (sHR=1.41, 95%CI 1.21-2.15), and dementia (sHR=1.39, 95%CI 1.22-1.57). Twenty-seven predictors of fallrelated hospitalisation within 365days were identifed, the strongest predictors included dementia (sHR=1.36, 95%CI 1.24-1.50), history of falls (sHR=1.30, 95%CI 1.20-1.42) and fractures (sHR=1.28, 95%CI 1.15-1.41). The risk prediction models had an AUC of 0.71 (95%CI 0.68-0.74) for fall-related hospitalisations within 90days and 0.64 (95%CI 0.62-0.67) for within 365days. Conclusion: Routinely collected aged and health care data, when integrated at a clear point of action such as entry into PRAC, can identify residents at risk of fall-related hospitalisations, providing an opportunity for better targeting risk mitigation strategies.Maria C. Inacio, Max Moldovan, Craig Whitehead, Janet K. Sluggett, Maria Crotty, Megan Corlis, Renuka Visvanathan, Steve Wesselingh, and Gillian E. Caughe

Provision of a comprehensive medicines review is associated with lower mortality risk for residents of aged care facilities: a retrospective cohort study

Background: no studies have examined the impact of residential medication management review (RMMR, a 24-year government subsidised comprehensive medicines review program) in Australian residential aged care facilities (RACFs) on hospitalisation or mortality. Objective: to examine associations between RMMR provision in the 6–12 months after RACF entry and the 12-month risk of hospitalisation and mortality among older Australians in RACFs. Design retrospective cohort study. Subjects: individuals aged 65–105 years taking at least one medicine, who entered an RACF in three Australian states between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2015 and spent at least 6 months in the RACF (n = 57,719). Methods: Cox regression models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between RMMR provision and mortality. Adjusted subdistribution hazard ratios were estimated for associations between RMMR provision and next (i) emergency department (ED) presentation or unplanned hospitalisation or (ii) fall-related ED presentation or hospitalisation. Results: there were 12,603 (21.8%) individuals who received an RMMR within 6–12 months of RACF entry, of whom 22.2% (95%CI 21.4–22.9) died during follow-up, compared with 23.3% (95%CI 22.9–23.7) of unexposed individuals. RMMR provision was associated with a lower risk of death due to any cause over 12-months (aHR 0.96, 95%CI 0.91–0.99), but was not associated with ED presentations or hospitalisations for unplanned events or falls. Conclusions: provision of an RMMR in the 6–12 months after RACF entry is associated with a 4.4% lower mortality risk over 12-months but was not associated with changes in hospitalisations for unplanned events or falls.Janet K Sluggett, Gillian E Caughey, Tracy Air, Max Moldovan, Catherine Lang, Grant Martin, Stephen R Carter, Shane Jackson, Andrew C Stafford, Steve L Wesselingh, Maria C Inaci

CD34+cells augment endothelial cell differentiation of CD14+endothelial progenitor cells in vitro

Neovascularization by endothelial progenitor cells (EPC) for the treatment of ischaemic diseases has been a topic of intense research. The CD34+ cell is often designated as EPC, because it contributes to repair of ischaemic injuries through neovascularization. However, incorporation of CD34+ cells into the neovasculature is limited, suggesting another role which could be paracrine. CD14+ cells can also differentiate into endothelial cells and contribute to neovascularization. However, the low proliferative capacity of CD14+ cell-derived endothelial cells hampers their use as therapeutic cells. We made the assumption that an interaction between CD34+ and CD14+ cells augments endothelial differentiation of the CD14+ cells. In vitro, the influence of CD34+ cells on the endothelial differentiation capacity of CD14+ cells was investigated. Endothelial differentiation was analysed by expression of endothelial cell markers CD31, CD144, von Willebrand Factor and endothelial Nitric Oxide Synthase. Furthermore, we assessed proliferative capacity and endothelial cell function of the cells in culture. In monocultures, 63% of the CD14+-derived cells adopted an endothelial cell phenotype, whereas in CD34+/CD14+ co-cultures 95% of the cells showed endothelial cell differentiation. Proliferation increased up to 12% in the CD34+/CD14+ co-cultures compared to both monocultures. CD34-conditioned medium also increased endothelial differentiation of CD14+ cells. This effect was abrogated by hepatocyte growth factor neutralizing antibodies, but not by interleukin-8 and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 neutralizing antibodies. We show that co-culturing of CD34+ and CD14+ cells results in a proliferating population of functional endothelial cells, which may be suitable for treatment of ischaemic diseases such as myocardial infarction

Epidemiology, practice of ventilation and outcome for patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications

BACKGROUND Limited information exists about the epidemiology and outcome of surgical patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs), and how intraoperative ventilation was managed in these patients. OBJECTIVES To determine the incidence of surgical patients at increased risk of PPCs, and to compare the intraoperative ventilation management and postoperative outcomes with patients at low risk of PPCs. DESIGN This was a prospective international 1-week observational study using the ‘Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia risk score’ (ARISCAT score) for PPC for risk stratification. PATIENTS AND SETTING Adult patients requiring intraoperative ventilation during general anaesthesia for surgery in 146 hospitals across 29 countries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome was the incidence of patients at increased risk of PPCs based on the ARISCAT score. Secondary outcomes included intraoperative ventilatory management and clinical outcomes. RESULTS A total of 9864 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The incidence of patients at increased risk was 28.4%. The most frequently chosen tidal volume (VT) size was 500 ml, or 7 to 9 ml kg1 predicted body weight, slightly lower in patients at increased risk of PPCs. Levels of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) were slightly higher in patients at increased risk of PPCs, with 14.3% receiving more than 5 cmH2O PEEP compared with 7.6% in patients at low risk of PPCs (P < 0.001). Patients with a predicted preoperative increased risk of PPCs developed PPCs more frequently: 19 versus 7%, relative risk (RR) 3.16 (95% confidence interval 2.76 to 3.61), P < 0.001) and had longer hospital stays. The only ventilatory factor associated with the occurrence of PPCs was the peak pressure. CONCLUSION The incidence of patients with a predicted increased risk of PPCs is high. A large proportion of patients receive high VT and low PEEP levels. PPCs occur frequently in patients at increased risk, with worse clinical outcome

Epidemiology, practice of ventilation and outcome for patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications: LAS VEGAS - An observational study in 29 countries

BACKGROUND Limited information exists about the epidemiology and outcome of surgical patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs), and how intraoperative ventilation was managed in these patients. OBJECTIVES To determine the incidence of surgical patients at increased risk of PPCs, and to compare the intraoperative ventilation management and postoperative outcomes with patients at low risk of PPCs. DESIGN This was a prospective international 1-week observational study using the ‘Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia risk score’ (ARISCAT score) for PPC for risk stratification. PATIENTS AND SETTING Adult patients requiring intraoperative ventilation during general anaesthesia for surgery in 146 hospitals across 29 countries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome was the incidence of patients at increased risk of PPCs based on the ARISCAT score. Secondary outcomes included intraoperative ventilatory management and clinical outcomes. RESULTS A total of 9864 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The incidence of patients at increased risk was 28.4%. The most frequently chosen tidal volume (V T) size was 500 ml, or 7 to 9 ml kg−1 predicted body weight, slightly lower in patients at increased risk of PPCs. Levels of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) were slightly higher in patients at increased risk of PPCs, with 14.3% receiving more than 5 cmH2O PEEP compared with 7.6% in patients at low risk of PPCs (P ˂ 0.001). Patients with a predicted preoperative increased risk of PPCs developed PPCs more frequently: 19 versus 7%, relative risk (RR) 3.16 (95% confidence interval 2.76 to 3.61), P ˂ 0.001) and had longer hospital stays. The only ventilatory factor associated with the occurrence of PPCs was the peak pressure. CONCLUSION The incidence of patients with a predicted increased risk of PPCs is high. A large proportion of patients receive high V T and low PEEP levels. PPCs occur frequently in patients at increased risk, with worse clinical outcome.</p

Using elastic nets to estimate frailty burden from routinely collected national aged care data

Advance Access Publication Date: 17 January 2020OBJECTIVES: To (1) use an elastic net (EN) algorithm to derive a frailty measure from a national aged care eligibility assessment program; (2) compare the ability of EN-based and a traditional cumulative deficit (CD) based frailty measures to predict mortality and entry into permanent residential care; (3) assess if the predictive ability can be improved by using weighted frailty measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A Cox proportional hazard model based EN algorithm was applied to the 2003-2013 cohort of 903 996 participants for selecting items to enter an EN based frailty measure. The out-of-sample predictive accuracy was measured by the area under the curve (AUC) from Cox models fitted to 80% training and validated on 20% testing samples. RESULTS: The EN approach resulted in a 178-item frailty measure including items excluded from the 44-item CD-based measure. The EN based measure was not statistically significantly different from the CD-based approach in terms of predicting mortality (AUC 0.641, 95% CI: 0.637-0.644 vs AUC 0.637, 95% CI: 0.634-0.641) and permanent care entry (AUC 0.626, 95% CI: 0.624-0.629 vs AUC 0.627, 95% CI: 0.625-0.63). However, the weighted EN based measure statistically outperforms the weighted CD measure for predicting mortality (AUC 0.774, 95% CI: 0.771-0.777 vs AUC 0.757, 95% CI: 0.754-0.760) and permanent care entry (AUC 0.676, 95% CI: 0.673-0.678 vs AUC 0.671, 95% CI: 0.668-0.674). CONCLUSIONS: The weighted EN and CD-based measures demonstrated similar prediction performance. The CD-based measure items are relevant to frailty measurement and easier to interpret. We recommend using the weighted and unweighted CD-based frailty measures.Max Moldovan, Jyoti Khadka, Renuka Visvanathan, Steve Wesselingh, and Maria C. Inaci

National trends in antibiotic Use in Australian residential aged care facilities, 2005-2016

Background: Understanding current patterns of antibiotic use in residential aged care facilities (RACFs) is essential to inform stewardship activities, but limited utilization data exist. This study examined changes in prevalence and consumption of antibiotics in Australian RACFs between 2005–2006 and 2015–2016. Methods: This population-based, repeated cross-sectional analysis included all long-term permanent residents of Australian RACFs between July 2005 and June 2016 who were aged ≥ 65 years. The yearly prevalence rate of antibiotic use and number of defined daily doses (DDDs) of systemic antibiotics per 1000 resident-days were determined annually from linked pharmaceutical claims data. Trends were assessed using ordinary least squares regression. Results: This study included 502,752 residents from 3218 RACFs, with 424.9 million resident-days analyzed. Antibiotics were dispensed on 5 608 126 occasions during the study period, of which 88% were for oral use. Cefalexin, amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, and trimethoprim were the most commonly dispensed antibiotics. The annual prevalence of antibiotic use increased from 63.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 63.3%–64.4%) to 70.3% (95% CI, 69.9%–70.7%) between 2005–2006 and 2015–2016 (0.8% average annual increase, P < .001). There was a 39% relative increase in total consumption of systemic antibiotics, with utilization increasing from 67.6 to 93.8 DDDs/1000 resident-days during the study period (average annual increase of 2.8 DDDs/1000 resident-days, P < .001). Conclusions: This nationwide study showed substantial increases in both prevalence of use and total consumption of antibiotics in Australian RACFs between 2005 and 2016. The increasingly widespread use of antibiotics in Australian RACFs is concerning and points to a need for enhanced efforts to optimize antibiotic use in this setting.Janet K. Sluggett, Max Moldovan, David J. Lynn, Lito E. Papanicolas, Maria Crotty, Craig Whitehead, Steve L. Wesselingh, Geraint B. Rogers, and Maria C. Inaci

Medicines use before and after comprehensive medicines review among residents of long-term care facilities: a retrospective cohort study

Background: Residential Medication Management Review (RMMR) is a subsidized comprehensive medicines review program for individuals in Australian residential aged care facilities (RACFs). This study examined weekly trends in medicines use in the four months before and after an RMMR and among a comparison group of residents who did not receive an RMMR. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included individuals aged 65 to 105 years who first entered permanent care between 1/1/2012 and 31/12/2016 in South Australia, Victoria, or New South Wales, and were taking at least one medicine. Individuals with an RMMR within 12 months of RACF entry were classified into one of three groups: (i) RMMR within 0 to 3 months, (ii) 3 to 6 months, or (iii) within 6 to 12 months of RACF entry. Individuals without RMMRs were included in the comparison group. Weekly trends in the number of defined daily doses per 1000 days were determined in the four months before and after the RMMR (or assigned index date in the comparison group) for 14 medicine classes. Results: 113909 individuals from 1979 RACFs were included, of whom 55021 received an RMMR. Across all three periods examined, decreased use of statins and proton pump inhibitors was observed post-RMMR in comparison to those without RMMRs. Decreases in calcium channel blockers, benzodiazepines/zopiclone, and antidepressants were observed following RMMR provision in the 3–6 and 6–12 months after RACF entry. Negligible changes in antipsychotic use were also observed following an RMMR in the 6–12 months after RACF entry by comparison to those without RMMRs. No changes in use of opioids, ACE inhibitors/sartans, beta blockers, loop diuretics, oral anticoagulants, or medicines for osteoporosis, diabetes or the cognitive symptoms of dementia were observed post-RMMR. Conclusions: For six of the 14 medicine classes investigated, modest changes in weekly trends in use were observed after the provision of an RMMR in the 6–12 months after RACF entry compared to those without RMMRs. Findings suggest that activities such as medicines reconciliation may be prioritized when an RMMR is provided on RACF entry, with deprescribing more likely after an RMMR the longer a resident has been in the RACF.Janet K. Sluggett, Gillian E. Caughey, Tracy Air, Max Moldovan, Catherine Lang, Grant Martin, Stephen R. Carter, Shane Jackson, Andrew C. Stafford, Steve L. Wesselingh, and Maria C. Inaci