Master crossover behavior of parachor correlations for one-component fluids

The master asymptotic behavior of the usual parachor correlations, expressing surface tension $\sigma$ as a power law of the density difference $\rho_{L}-\rho_{V}$ between coexisting liquid and vapor, is analyzed for a series of pure compounds close to their liquid-vapor critical point, using only four critical parameters $(\beta_{c})^{-1}$, $\alpha_{c}$, $Z_{c}$ and $Y_{c}$, for each fluid. ... The main consequences of these theoretical estimations are discussed in the light of engineering applications and process simulations where parachor correlations constitute one of the most practical method for estimating surface tension from density and capillary rise measurements

Are Surgical Trials with Negative Results Being Interpreted Correctly?

BACKGROUND: Many published accounts of clinical trials report no differences between the treatment arms, while being underpowered to find differences. This study determined how the authors of these reports interpreted their findings. STUDY DESIGN: We examined 54 reports of surgical trials chosen randomly from a database of 110 influential trials conducted in 2008. Seven that reported having adequate statistical power (b 0.9) were excluded from further analysis, as were the 32 that reported significant differences between the treatment arms. We examined the remaining 15 to see whether the authors interpreted their negative findings appropriately. Appropriate interpretations discussed the lack of power and/or called for larger studies. RESULTS: Three of the 7 trials that did not report an a priori power calculation offered inappropriate interpretations, as did 3 of the 8 trials that reported an a priori power < 0.90. However, we examined only a modest number of trial reports from 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Negative findings in underpowered trials were often interpreted as showing the equivalence of the treatment arms with no discussion of the issue of being underpowered. This may lead clinicians to accept new treatments that have not been validated

El Pensamiento Probabilístico de los Profesores de Biología en Formación

Los futuros profesores de secundaria requieren de una formación acorde a las demandas de la sociedad del siglo XXI. Ello impone el desarrollo de un pensamiento que le permita interpretar y abordar los fenómenos de naturaleza aleatoria. El objetivo de este trabajo es determinar las tendencias de pensamiento probabilístico de los estudiantes de los profesorados de Biología de la provincia de Mendoza, Argentina. Para ello se aplicó un cuestionario a los 325 estudiantes que cursan esta carrera. El mismo consta de tres partes; la primera trata sobre las variables demográficas de los estudiantes, la segunda corresponde al reconocimiento de la aleatoriedad; y la tercera a la estimación de la probabilidad de diferentes sucesos. Las respuestas se analizaron a partir de la aplicación de diferentes técnicas estadísticas; el test de independencia, el análisis de la varianza, el test de Tukey, análisis de clusters y análisis discriminante. En primer lugar, se encontraron diferencias significativas entre el reconocimiento de la aleatoriedad y el contexto del suceso, siendo mayor en el contexto de juego que en el físico natural. Mientras que, en el contexto físico natural se afirma la aleatoriedad desde la causalidad, en el de juego se afirma desde la incertidumbre. En segundo lugar, no se encontró relación de dependencia entre el reconocimiento de la aleatoriedad y la edad de los estudiantes, como así tampoco con el nivel académico de los mismos. Respecto a la estimación de la probabilidad, los estudiantes argumentan fundamentalmente desde la equiprobabilidad y desde la contingencia. El análisis de clusters y análisis discriminante permitieron encontrar cuatro tendencias de pensamiento: incertidumbre, determinista, contingente y personalista

Gaia Focused Product Release: A catalogue of sources around quasars to search for strongly lensed quasars

Context. Strongly lensed quasars are fundamental sources for cosmology. The Gaia space mission covers the entire sky with the unprecedented resolution of $0.18$" in the optical, making it an ideal instrument to search for gravitational lenses down to the limiting magnitude of 21. Nevertheless, the previous Gaia Data Releases are known to be incomplete for small angular separations such as those expected for most lenses. Aims. We present the Data Processing and Analysis Consortium GravLens pipeline, which was built to analyse all Gaia detections around quasars and to cluster them into sources, thus producing a catalogue of secondary sources around each quasar. We analysed the resulting catalogue to produce scores that indicate source configurations that are compatible with strongly lensed quasars. Methods. GravLens uses the DBSCAN unsupervised clustering algorithm to detect sources around quasars. The resulting catalogue of multiplets is then analysed with several methods to identify potential gravitational lenses. We developed and applied an outlier scoring method, a comparison between the average BP and RP spectra of the components, and we also used an extremely randomised tree algorithm. These methods produce scores to identify the most probable configurations and to establish a list of lens candidates. Results. We analysed the environment of 3 760 032 quasars. A total of 4 760 920 sources, including the quasars, were found within 6" of the quasar positions. This list is given in the Gaia archive. In 87\% of cases, the quasar remains a single source, and in 501 385 cases neighbouring sources were detected. We propose a list of 381 lensed candidates, of which we identified 49 as the most promising. Beyond these candidates, the associate tables in this Focused Product Release allow the entire community to explore the unique Gaia data for strong lensing studies further.Comment: 35 pages, 60 figures, accepted for publication by Astronomy and Astrophysic

Improving a branch-and-bound approach for the degree-constrained minimum spanning tree problem with LKH

The degree-constrained minimum spanning tree problem, which involves finding a minimum spanning tree of a given graph with upper bounds on the vertex degrees, has found multiple applications in several domains. In this paper, we propose a novel CP approach to tackle this problem where we extend a recent branch-and-bound approach with an adaptation of the LKH local search heuristic to deal with trees instead of tours. Every time a solution is found, it is locally optimised by our new heuristic, thus yielding a tightened cut. Our experimental evaluation shows that this significantly speeds up the branch-and-bound search and hence closes the performance gap to the state-of-the-art bottom-up CP approach

Gaia Focused Product Release: Radial velocity time series of long-period variables

The third Gaia Data Release (DR3) provided photometric time series of more than 2 million long-period variable (LPV) candidates. Anticipating the publication of full radial-velocity (RV) in DR4, this Focused Product Release (FPR) provides RV time series for a selection of LPVs with high-quality observations. We describe the production and content of the Gaia catalog of LPV RV time series, and the methods used to compute variability parameters published in the Gaia FPR. Starting from the DR3 LPVs catalog, we applied filters to construct a sample of sources with high-quality RV measurements. We modeled their RV and photometric time series to derive their periods and amplitudes, and further refined the sample by requiring compatibility between the RV period and at least one of the $G$, $G_{\rm BP}$, or $G_{\rm RP}$ photometric periods. The catalog includes RV time series and variability parameters for 9\,614 sources in the magnitude range $6\lesssim G/{\rm mag}\lesssim 14$, including a flagged top-quality subsample of 6\,093 stars whose RV periods are fully compatible with the values derived from the $G$, $G_{\rm BP}$, and $G_{\rm RP}$ photometric time series. The RV time series contain a mean of 24 measurements per source taken unevenly over a duration of about three years. We identify the great most sources (88%) as genuine LPVs, with about half of them showing a pulsation period and the other half displaying a long secondary period. The remaining 12% consists of candidate ellipsoidal binaries. Quality checks against RVs available in the literature show excellent agreement. We provide illustrative examples and cautionary remarks. The publication of RV time series for almost 10\,000 LPVs constitutes, by far, the largest such database available to date in the literature. The availability of simultaneous photometric measurements gives a unique added value to the Gaia catalog (abridged)Comment: 36 pages, 38 figure

Research on Teaching and Learning Probability

This book summarizes the vast amount of research related to teaching and learning probability that has been conducted for more than 50 years in a variety of disciplines. It begins with a synthesis of the most important probability interpretations throughout history: intuitive, classical, frequentist, subjective, logical propensity and axiomatic views. It discusses their possible applications, philosophical problems, as well as their potential and the level of interest they enjoy at different educational levels. Next, the book describes the main features of probabilistic thinking and reasoning, including the contrast to classical logic, probability language features, the role of intuitions, as well as paradoxes and the relevance of modeling. It presents an analysis of the differences between conditioning and causation, the variability expression in data as a sum of random and causal variations, as well as those of probabilistic versus statistical thinking. This is followed by an analysis of probability’s role and main presence in school curricula and an outline of the central expectations in recent curricular guidelines at the primary, secondary and high school level in several countries. This book classifies and discusses in detail the three different research periods on students’ and people’s intuitions and difficulties concerning probability: early research focused on cognitive development, a period of heuristics and biases programs, and the current period marked by a multitude of foci, approaches and theoretical frameworks

Gaia focused product release: radial velocity time series of long-period variables

Stars and planetary system

Gaia Focused Product Release: Asteroid orbital solution: Properties and assessment

Context. We report the exploitation of a sample of Solar System observations based on data from the third Gaia Data Release (Gaia DR3) of nearly 157 000 asteroids. It extends the epoch astrometric solution over the time coverage planned for the Gaia DR4, which is not expected before the end of 2025. This data set covers more than one full orbital period for the vast majority of these asteroids. The orbital solutions are derived from the Gaia data alone over a relatively short arc compared to the observation history of many of these asteroids. Aims. The work aims to produce orbital elements for a large set of asteroids based on 66 months of accurate astrometry provided by Gaia and to assess the accuracy of these orbital solutions with a comparison to the best available orbits derived from independent observations. A second validation is performed with accurate occultation timings. Methods. We processed the raw astrometric measurements of Gaia to obtain astrometric positions of moving objects with 1D sub-mas accuracy at the bright end. For each asteroid that we matched to the data, an orbit fitting was attempted in the form of the best fit of the initial conditions at the median epoch. The force model included Newtonian and relativistic accelerations to derive the observation equations, which were solved with a linear least-squares fit. Results. Orbits are provided in the form of state vectors in the International Celestial Reference Frame for 156 764 asteroids, including near-Earth objects, main-belt asteroids, and Trojans. For the asteroids with the best observations, the (formal) relative uncertainty σa/a is better than 10−10. Results are compared to orbits available from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and MPC. Their orbits are based on much longer data arcs, but from positions of lower quality. The relative differences in semi-major axes have a mean of 5 × 10−10 and a scatter of 5 × 10−9