Estimating future air-quality due to climate change: the Athens case study

The aim of this study is to investigate the development of an empirical-statistical model in order to examine the potential impact of increasing future temperatures on ozone exceedance days in the Greater Athens Area. It is based on the concept that temperature is a capable predictor for the ozone concentrations and that in a future climate change world, the likelihood of ozone pollution episodes may increase

Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on European Ozone Levels

The objective of this study is to investigate the potential impact of future climate change on ozone air quality in Europe. To provide a full assessment, simulations with the global chemical transport model GEOS-CHEM driven by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (NASA/GISS GCM) are conducted. To isolate the effects from changes in climate and anthropogenic emissions four types of simulations are performed: (1) present-day climate and emissions (2) future climate following the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario and present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors (3) present-day climate and future emissions and (4) future climate and future emissions. Results indicate that climate change impact on its own leads to an increase of less than 3 ppb in western and central Europe whereas decreases are evident for the rest of the areas with the highest (about 2.5 ppb) in southeastern Europe (Italy, Greece). Increases are attributed to the increases of isoprene biogenic emissions due to increasing temperatures whereas decreases are associated with the increase of water vapor over sea which tends to decrease the lifetime of ozone as well as the increased wind speeds in the 2050 climate. When future emissions are implemented in the future climate simulations, the greatest increases are seen in the southwest and southeast Mediterranean (about 16 ppb) due to the increased isoprene biogenic emissions under higher levels of NOx in the model. Decreases up to 2 ppb of ozone are shown for France, Switzerland, Northern Italy and northern Europe

Statistical estimations of the number of future ozone exceedances due to climate change in Europe

A statistical model to examine the potential impact of increasing future temperatures due to climate change on ozone exceedances (days with daily maximum 8 h average ≥ 60 ppb) is developed for Europe. We employ gridded observed daily maximum temperatures and hourly ozone observations from nonurban stations across Europe, together with daily maximum temperatures for 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 from three regional climate models, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. A rotated principal components analysis is applied to the ozone stations yielding five principal components, which divide the study domain in five subregions. The historical ozone-temperature relationship is examined and then used to provide estimates of future ozone exceedance days under current emissions and under the assumption that this relationship will retain its main characteristics. Results suggest that increases in the upper temperature percentiles lead to statistically significant increases (95% statistical significance level) of the ozone exceedances for both future periods. The greatest average increases depending on the particular regional climate model range from 5 to 12 extra ozone days/yr for 2021–2050 and from 16 to 25 for 2071–2100, in southeast Europe. The lowest average increases range from 0 to 2 extra ozone days/yr for 2021–2050 and from 2 to 4 for 2071–2100 and are seen in northwest Europe. The simulations with the dynamical Goddard Institute of Space Studies/GEOS-CHEM climate chemistry modeling system shows decreases instead of increases in eastern Europe, higher increases in northwest Europe, whereas for the other subregions similar results to the statistical model are obtained

Climate change and future ozone concentrations in high resolution over Europe

In this study a methodology is developed that applies the ozone concentration change signal from a global climate-chemical modeling system with a coarse horizontal resolution to a finer resolution. To this aim simulations with two different configurations of the GEOS-CHEM chemical transport model are conducted a) driven from the GISS III general circulation model (4ox 5o) for a present (1999–2001) and a future (2049–2051) period and b) driven by assimilated meteorological data (GEOS, 0.5o x 0.667o) for the year 2005. Results indicate highest increases between the future and the reference period in the north west and the south west Europe for both the average mean (~ 5 ppb) and average daily maximum ozone concentrations (~ 10 ppb) whereas the highest decreases (~ 4-6 ppb) are shown in the south East Europe for the same statistical targets. Moreover, these results are of the same sign to the results of the global climate-chemical modelling system in the North-west and the South-east Europe. Nevertheless changes in the GISS/GEOS-CHEM between the future and the present climate are in the range of ± 2 ppb and ± 3 ppb for the average mean and the average daily maximum ozone concentrations respectively

The role of sea-salt emissions and heterogeneous chemistry in the air quality of polluted coastal areas

International audienceOpen-ocean and surf-zone sea-salt aerosol (SSA) emissions algorithms are incorporated in the CAMx aerosol model and applied over an area with an extended Archipelago (Greece), with a fine grid nested over the highly populated Attica peninsula. The maximum indirect impact of SSA on PM10 mass (35%) is located over a marine area with moderate SSA production and elevated shipping emissions (central Aegean Sea) where SSA interacts with anthropogenic nitric acid forming sodium nitrate. SSA increases PM10 levels in the Athens city center up to 27% during stable onshore winds. Under such conditions both open-ocean and surf-zone mechanisms contribute to aerosol production over Attica. A hybrid scheme for gas-to-particle mass transfer is necessary for accurately simulating semi-volatile aerosol components when coarse SSA is included. Dynamically simulating mass transfer to the coarse particles leads to a quadrupling of predicted PM10 nitrate in the Athens city center and up to two orders of magnitude in its coarse mass in comparison to using a bulk equilibrium approach

Planetary boundary layer height by means of lidar and numerical simulations over New Delhi, India

In this work, the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBLH) is investigated over Gwal Pahari (Gual Pahari), New Delhi, for almost a year. To this end, ground-based measurements from a multiwavelength Raman lidar were used. The modified wavelet covariance transform (WCT) method was utilized for PBLH retrievals. Results were compared to data from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In order to examine the difficulties of PBLH detection from lidar, we analyzed three cases of PBLH diurnal evolution under different meteorological and aerosol load conditions. In the presence of multiple aerosol layers, the employed algorithm exhibited high efficiency (r=0.9) in the attribution of PBLH, whereas weak aerosol gradients induced high variability in the PBLH. A sensitivity analysis corroborated the stability of the utilized methodology. The comparison with CALIPSO observations yielded satisfying results (r=0.8), with CALIPSO slightly overestimating the PBLH. Due to the relatively warmer and drier winter and, correspondingly, colder and rainier pre-monsoon season, the seasonal PBLH cycle during the measurement period was slightly weaker than the cycle expected from long-term climate records.</p

The International Urban Energy Balance Models Comparison Project: First Results from Phase 1

A large number of urban surface energy balance models now exist with different assumptions about the important features of the surface and exchange processes that need to be incorporated. To date, no com- parison of these models has been conducted; in contrast, models for natural surfaces have been compared extensively as part of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes. Here, the methods and first results from an extensive international comparison of 33 models are presented. The aim of the comparison overall is to understand the complexity required to model energy and water exchanges in urban areas. The degree of complexity included in the models is outlined and impacts on model performance are discussed. During the comparison there have been significant developments in the models with resulting improvements in performance (root-mean-square error falling by up to two-thirds). Evaluation is based on a dataset containing net all-wave radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat flux observations for an industrial area in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The aim of the comparison is twofold: to identify those modeling ap- proaches that minimize the errors in the simulated fluxes of the urban energy balance and to determine the degree of model complexity required for accurate simulations. There is evidence that some classes of models perform better for individual fluxes but no model performs best or worst for all fluxes. In general, the simpler models perform as well as the more complex models based on all statistical measures. Generally the schemes have best overall capability to model net all-wave radiation and least capability to model latent heat flux

Initial results from Phase 2 of the international urban energy balance model comparison

Urban land surface schemes have been developed to model the distinct features of the urban surface and the associated energy exchange processes. These models have been developed for a range of purposes and make different assumptions related to the inclusion and representation of the relevant processes. Here, the first results of Phase 2 from an international comparison project to evaluate 32 urban land surface schemes are presented. This is the first large-scale systematic evaluation of these models. In four stages, participants were given increasingly detailed information about an urban site for which urban fluxes were directly observed. At each stage, each group returned their models' calculated surface energy balance fluxes. Wide variations are evident in the performance of the models for individual fluxes. No individual model performs best for all fluxes. Providing additional information about the surface generally results in better performance. However, there is clear evidence that poor choice of parameter values can cause a large drop in performance for models that otherwise perform well. As many models do not perform well across all fluxes, there is need for caution in their application, and users should be aware of the implications for applications and decision making

Regional new particle formation as modulators of cloud condensation nuclei and cloud droplet number in the eastern Mediterranean

A significant fraction of atmospheric particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are thought to originate from the condensational growth of new particle formation (NPF) from the gas phase. Here, 7 years of continuous aerosol and meteorological measurements (June 2008 to May 2015) at a remote background site of the eastern Mediterranean were recorded and analyzed to assess the impact of NPF (of 162 episodes identified) on CCN and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) formation in the region. A new metric is introduced to quantitatively determine the initiation and duration of the influence of NPF on the CCN spectrum. NPF days were found to increase CCN concentrations (from 0.10&thinsp;% to 1.00&thinsp;% supersaturation) between 29&thinsp;% and 77&thinsp;%. Enhanced CCN concentrations from NPF are mostly observed, as expected, under low preexisting particle concentrations and occur in the afternoon, relatively later in the winter and autumn than in the summer. Potential impacts of NPF on cloud formation were quantified by introducing the observed aerosol size distributions and chemical composition into an established cloud droplet parameterization. We find that the supersaturations that develop are very low (ranging between 0.03&thinsp;% and 0.27&thinsp;%) for typical boundary layer dynamics (σw ∼0.3&thinsp;m&thinsp;s−1) and NPF is found to enhance CDNC by a modest 13&thinsp;%. This considerable contrast between CCN and CDNC response is in part from the different supersaturation levels considered, but also because supersaturation drops from increasing CCN because of water vapor competition effects during the process of droplet formation. The low cloud supersaturation further delays the appearance of NPF impacts on CDNC to clouds formed in the late evening and nighttime – which has important implications for the extent and types of indirect effects induced by NPF events. An analysis based on CCN concentrations using prescribed supersaturation can provide very different, even misleading, conclusions and should therefore be avoided. The proposed approach here offers a simple, yet highly effective way for a more realistic impact assessment of NPF events on cloud formation.</p

Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?

Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071-2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time windows, respectively