The environmental impact of climate change adaptation on land use and water quality

Encouraging adaptation is an essential aspect of the policy response to climate change1. Adaptation seeks to reduce the harmful consequences and harness any beneficial opportunities arising from the changing climate. However, given that human activities are the main cause of environmental transformations worldwide2, it follows that adaptation itself also has the potential to generate further pressures, creating new threats for both local and global ecosystems. From this perspective, policies designed to encourage adaptation may conflict with regulation aimed at preserving or enhancing environmental quality. This aspect of adaptation has received relatively little consideration in either policy design or academic debate. To highlight this issue, we analyse the trade-offs between two fundamental ecosystem services that will be impacted by climate change: provisioning services derived from agriculture and regulating services in the form of freshwater quality. Results indicate that climate adaptation in the farming sector will generate fundamental changes in river water quality. In some areas, policies that encourage adaptation are expected to be in conflict with existing regulations aimed at improving freshwater ecosystems. These findings illustrate the importance of anticipating the wider impacts of human adaptation to climate change when designing environmental policies

The natural capital approach to integrating science, economics and policy into decisions affecting the natural environment

This is the final version. Available on open access from Cambridge University Press via the DOI in this recordNatural capital refers to those stocks of assets provided for free by nature which, directly or indirectly, deliver well-being for humans. These include freshwater, fertile soils, clean air and living things. Natural capital stocks deliver flows of services, often called ecosystem services, which (often in combination with flows from other capital including human labour, ingenuity and manufactured goods) produce the benefits upon which humans depend for economic well-being and their very existence. Economic activity depends on natural capital while also affecting the stock of those assets. This relationship between the environment, the economy and human well-being has caught the attention of governments at both global and national levels. But how should governments incorporate the notion of natural capital into policy- and decision-making? We set out to define the notion of natural capital and how it can be brought into the economic analyses which underpin the majority of policy decision-making systems. We consider the means by which changes can be best directed to reflect the underlying science of the environment, the incentives of the economy and the preferences of society.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

The effects of weather and climate change on dengue

There is much uncertainty about the future impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases. Such uncertainty reflects the difficulties in modelling the complex interactions between disease, climatic and socioeconomic determinants. We used a comprehensive panel dataset from Mexico covering 23 years of province-specific dengue reports across nine climatic regions to estimate the impact of weather on dengue, accounting for the effects of non-climatic factors

The potential for land sparing to offset greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

Greenhouse gas emissions from global agriculture are increasing at around 1% per annum, yet substantial cuts in emissions are needed across all sectors. The challenge of reducing agricultural emissions is particularly acute, because the reductions achievable by changing farming practices are limited and are hampered by rapidly rising food demand. Here we assess the technical mitigation potential offered by land sparing-increasing agricultural yields, reducing farm land area and actively restoring natural habitats on the land spared. Restored habitats can sequester carbon and can offset emissions from agriculture. Using the United Kingdom as an example, we estimate net emissions in 2050 under a range of future agricultural scenarios. We find that a land-sparing strategy has the technical potential to achieve significant reductions in net emissions from agriculture and land-use change. Coupling land sparing with demand-side strategies to reduce meat consumption and food waste can further increase the technical mitigation potential, however economic and implementation considerations might limit the degree to which this technical potential could be realised in practice.This research was funded by the Cambridge Conservation Initiative Collaborative Fund for Conservation and we thank its major sponsor Arcadia. We thank J. Bruinsma for the provision of demand data, the CEH for the provision of soil data and J. Spencer for invaluable discussions. A.L. was supported by a Gates Cambridge Scholarship.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate291

Time-varying convergence in European electricity spot markets and their association with carbon and fuel prices

Long-run dynamics of electricity prices are expected to reflect fuel price developments, since fuels generally account for a large share in the cost of generation. As an integrated European market for electricity develops, wholesale electricity prices should be converging as a result of market coupling and increased interconnectivity. Electricity mixes are also changing, spurred by a drive to significantly in-crease the share of renewables. Consequently, the electricity wholesale price dynamics are evolving, and the fuel-electricity price nexus that has been described in the literature is likely to reflect this evolution. This study investigates associations between spot prices from the British, French and Nordpool markets with those in connected electricity markets and fuel input prices, from December 2005 to October 2013. In order to assess the time-varying dynamics of electricity spot price series, localized autocorrelation functions are used. Electricity spot prices in the three markets are found to have stationary and non-stationary periods. When a trend in spot prices is observed, it is likely to reflect the trend in fuel prices. Cointegration analysis is then used to assess co-movement between electricity spot prices and fuel inputs to generation. The results show that British electricity spot prices are associated with fuel prices and not with price developments in connected markets, while the opposite is observed in the French and Nordpool day-ahead markets

The potential of metering roundabouts: influence in transportation externalities

Roundabouts are increasingly being used on busy arterial streets for traffic calming purposes. However, if one roundabout leg is near a distribution hub, e.g. parking areas of shopping centers, the entry traffic volumes will be particularly high in peak hours. This paper investigated a partial-metering based strategy to reduce traffic-related costs in a corridor. Specifically, the resulting traffic performance, energy, environmental and exposure impacts associated with access roundabouts were studied in an urban commercial area, namely: a) to characterize corridor operations in terms of link-specific travel time, fuel consumption, carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides emissions, and noise costs; b) to propose an optimization model to minimize above outputs; and c) to demonstrate the model applicability under different traffic demand and directional splits combinations. Traffic, noise and vehicle dynamics data were collected from a corridor with roundabouts and signalized intersections near a commercial area of Guimarães, Portugal. Microscopic traffic and emission modeling platforms were used to model traffic operations and estimate pollutant emissions, respectively. Traffic noise was estimated with a semi-dynamical model. Link-based cost functions were developed based on the integrated modeling structure. Lastly, a Sequential quadratic programming type approach was applied to find optimal timing settings. The benefit of the partial-metering system, in terms of costs, could be up to 13% with observed traffic volumes. The efficiency of the proposed system increased as entering traffic at the metered approaches increased (~7% less costs). The findings let one to quantify metering benefits near shopping areas