Data-driven and hybrid coastal morphological prediction methods for mesoscale forecasting

It is now common for coastal planning to anticipate changes anywhere from 70 to 100 years into the future. The process models developed and used for scheme design or for large-scale oceanography are currently inadequate for this task. This has prompted the development of a plethora of alternative methods. Some, such as reduced complexity or hybrid models simplify the governing equations retaining processes that are considered to govern observed morphological behaviour. The computational cost of these models is low and they have proven effective in exploring morphodynamic trends and improving our understanding of mesoscale behaviour. One drawback is that there is no generally agreed set of principles on which to make the simplifying assumptions and predictions can vary considerably between models. An alternative approach is data-driven techniques that are based entirely on analysis and extrapolation of observations. Here, we discuss the application of some of the better known and emerging methods in this category to argue that with the increasing availability of observations from coastal monitoring programmes and the development of more sophisticated statistical analysis techniques data-driven models provide a valuable addition to the armoury of methods available for mesoscale prediction. The continuation of established monitoring programmes is paramount, and those that provide contemporaneous records of the driving forces and the shoreline response are the most valuable in this regard. In the second part of the paper we discuss some recent research that combining some of the hybrid techniques with data analysis methods in order to synthesise a more consistent means of predicting mesoscale coastal morphological evolution. While encouraging in certain applications a universally applicable approach has yet to be found. The route to linking different model types is highlighted as a major challenge and requires further research to establish its viability. We argue that key elements of a successful solution will need to account for dependencies between driving parameters, (such as wave height and tide level), and be able to predict step changes in the configuration of coastal systems

Measuring and modeling the effect of surface moisture on the spectral reflectance of coastal beach sand

Surface moisture is an important supply limiting factor for aeolian sand transport, which is the primary driver of coastal dune development. As such, it is critical to account for the control of surface moisture on available sand for dune building. Optical remote sensing has the potential to measure surface moisture at a high spatio-temporal resolution. It is based on the principle that wet sand appears darker than dry sand: it is less reflective. The goals of this study are (1) to measure and model reflectance under controlled laboratory conditions as function of wavelength () and surface moisture () over the optical domain of 350–2500 nm, and (2) to explore the implications of our laboratory findings for accurately mapping the distribution of surface moisture under natural conditions. A laboratory spectroscopy experiment was conducted to measure spectral reflectance (1 nm interval) under different surface moisture conditions using beach sand. A non-linear increase of reflectance upon drying was observed over the full range of wavelengths. Two models were developed and tested. The first model is grounded in optics and describes the proportional contribution of scattering and absorption of light by pore water in an unsaturated sand matrix. The second model is grounded in soil physics and links the hydraulic behaviour of pore water in an unsaturated sand matrix to its optical properties. The optical model performed well for volumetric moisture content 24% ( 0.97), but underestimated reflectance for between 24–30% ( 0.92), most notable around the 1940 nm water absorption peak. The soil-physical model performed very well ( 0.99) but is limited to 4% 24%. Results from a field experiment show that a short-wave infrared terrestrial laser scanner ( = 1550 nm) can accurately relate surface moisture to reflectance (standard error 2.6%), demonstrating its potential to derive spatially extensive surface moisture maps of a natural coastal beach

Literatuurstudie m.b.t. zandsuppletie van kusten

Summaries of references on beach nourishment.Hydraulic EngineeringCivil Engineering and Geoscience