Novel genetic markers improve measures of atrial fibrillation risk prediction

Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with adverse outcome. Whether recently discovered genetic risk markers improve AF risk prediction is unknown. Methods and results We derived and validated a novel AF risk prediction model from 32 possible predictors in the Women's Health Study (WHS), a cohort of 20 822 women without cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline followed prospectively for incident AF (median: 14.5 years). We then created a genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of 12 risk alleles in nine loci and assessed model performance in the validation cohort with and without the GRS. The newly derived WHS AF risk algorithm included terms for age, weight, height, systolic blood pressure, alcohol use, and smoking (current and past). In the validation cohort, this model was well calibrated with good discrimination [C-index (95% CI) = 0.718 (0.684-0.753)] and improved all reclassification indices when compared with age alone. The addition of the genetic score to the WHS AF risk algorithm model improved the C-index [0.741 (0.709-0.774); P = 0.001], the category-less net reclassification [0.490 (0.301-0.670); P < 0.0001], and the integrated discrimination improvement [0.00526 (0.0033-0.0076); P < 0.0001]. However, there was no improvement in net reclassification into 10-year risk categories of <1, 1-5, and 5+% [0.041 (−0.044-0.12); P = 0.33]. Conclusion Among women without CVD, a simple risk prediction model utilizing readily available risk markers identified women at higher risk for AF. The addition of genetic information resulted in modest improvements in predictive accuracy that did not translate into improved reclassification into discrete AF risk categorie

Novel genetic markers improve measures of atrial fibrillation risk prediction

Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with adverse outcome. Whether recently discovered genetic risk markers improve AF risk prediction is unknown. Methods and results We derived and validated a novel AF risk prediction model from 32 possible predictors in the Women's Health Study (WHS), a cohort of 20 822 women without cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline followed prospectively for incident AF (median: 14.5 years). We then created a genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of 12 risk alleles in nine loci and assessed model performance in the validation cohort with and without the GRS. The newly derived WHS AF risk algorithm included terms for age, weight, height, systolic blood pressure, alcohol use, and smoking (current and past). In the validation cohort, this model was well calibrated with good discrimination [C-index (95% CI) = 0.718 (0.684–0.753)] and improved all reclassification indices when compared with age alone. The addition of the genetic score to the WHS AF risk algorithm model improved the C-index [0.741 (0.709–0.774); P = 0.001], the category-less net reclassification [0.490 (0.301–0.670); P < 0.0001], and the integrated discrimination improvement [0.00526 (0.0033–0.0076); P < 0.0001]. However, there was no improvement in net reclassification into 10-year risk categories of <1, 1–5, and 5+% [0.041 (−0.044–0.12); P = 0.33]. Conclusion: Among women without CVD, a simple risk prediction model utilizing readily available risk markers identified women at higher risk for AF. The addition of genetic information resulted in modest improvements in predictive accuracy that did not translate into improved reclassification into discrete AF risk categories

How close are hyperdeformed states to the scission point?

The HFB method with the Gogny force is used to study the effects of reflection asymmetry at I = 0{h_bar} on the barriers separating superdeformed and hyperdeformed minima from fission in the {sup 176}W and {sup 168}Yb nuclei. The fission barrier for the HD minimum is reduced by 5 MeV in {sup 176}W when reflection asymmetry is taken into account

Measurement of the response of heat-and-ionization germanium detectors to nuclear recoils

The heat quenching factor Q' (the ratio of the heat signals produced by nuclear and electron recoils of equal energy) of the heat-and-ionization germanium bolometers used by the EDELWEISS collaboration has been measured. It is explained how this factor affects the energy scale and the effective quenching factor observed in calibrations with neutron sources. This effective quenching effect is found to be equal to Q/Q', where Q is the quenching factor of the ionization yield. To measure Q', a precise EDELWEISS measurement of Q/Q' is combined with values of Q obtained from a review of all available measurements of this quantity in tagged neutron beam experiments. The systematic uncertainties associated with this method to evaluate Q' are discussed in detail. For recoil energies between 20 and 100 keV, the resulting heat quenching factor is Q' = 0.91+-0.03+-0.04, where the two errors are the contributions from the Q and Q/Q' measurements, respectively. The present compilation of Q values and evaluation of Q' represent one of the most precise determinations of the absolute energy scale for any detector used in direct searches for dark matter.Comment: 28 pages, 7 figures. Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Parametrization of the octupole degrees of freedom

A simple parametrization for the octupole collective variables is proposed and the symmetries of the wave functions are discussed in terms of the solutions corresponding to the vibrational limit. [PACS: 21.60Ev, 21.60.Fw, 21.10.Re]Comment: 14 page

Tri-axial Octupole Deformations and Shell Structure

Manifestations of pronounced shell effects are discovered when adding nonaxial octupole deformations to a harmonic oscillator model. The degeneracies of the quantum spectra are in a good agreement with the corresponding main periodic orbits and winding number ratios which are found by classical analysis.Comment: 10 pages, Latex, 4 postscript figures, to appear in JETP Letter

Intrinsic vs. laboratory frame description of the deformed nucleus 48Cr

The collective yrast band of the nucleus $^{48}$Cr is studied using the spherical shell model and the HFB method. Both approaches produce basically the same axially symmetric intrinsic state up to the - accurately reproduced - observed backbending. Agreement between both calculations extends to most observables. The only significant discrepancy comes from the static moments of inertia and can be attributed to the need of a more refined treatment of pairing correlations in the HFB calculation.Comment: 4 pages, RevTeX 3.0 using psfig, 6 Postscript figures included using uufile

Spectral analysis of the biharmonic operator subject to Neumann boundary conditions on dumbbell domains

We consider the biharmonic operator subject to homogeneous boundary conditions of Neumann type on a planar dumbbell domain which consists of two disjoint domains connected by a thin channel. We analyse the spectral behaviour of the operator, characterizing the limit of the eigenvalues and of the eigenprojections as the thickness of the channel goes to zero. In applications to linear elasticity, the fourth order operator under consideration is related to the deformation of a free elastic plate, a part of which shrinks to a segment. In contrast to what happens with the classical second order case, it turns out that the limiting equation is here distorted by a strange factor depending on a parameter which plays the role of the Poisson coefficient of the represented plate.Comment: To appear in "Integral Equations and Operator Theory