Global coverage of cetacean line-transect surveys : status quo, data gaps and future challenges

Knowledge of abundance, trends and distribution of cetacean populations is needed to inform marine conservation efforts, ecosystem models and spatial planning. We compiled a geo-spatial database of published data on cetacean abundance from dedicated visual line-transect surveys and encoded >1100 abundance estimates for 47 species from 430 surveys conducted worldwide from 1975-2005. Our subsequent analyses revealed large spatial, temporal and taxonomic variability and gaps in survey coverage. With the exception of Antarctic waters, survey coverage was biased toward the northern hemisphere, especially US and northern European waters. Overall, <25% of the world’s ocean surface was surveyed and only 6% had been covered frequently enough (≥ 5 times) to allow trend estimation. Almost half the global survey effort, defined as total area (km2) covered by all survey study areas across time, was concentrated in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). Neither the number of surveys conducted nor the survey effort had increased in recent years. Across species, an average of 10% of a species’ predicted range had been covered by at least one survey, but there was considerable variation among species. With the exception of three delphinid species, <1% of all species’ ranges had been covered frequently enough for trend analysis. We use a data-rich species, sperm whale, as an example to illustrate the challenges of using available data from line-transect surveys for the detection of trends or for spatial planning. Finally, we propose and contrast several field and analytical methods to fill in data gaps to improve future cetacean conservation management efforts.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Ab initio simulations of liquid systems: Concentration dependence of the electric conductivity of NaSn alloys

Liquid NaSn alloys in five different compositions (20, 40, 50, 57 and 80% sodium) are studied using density functional calculations combined with molecular dynamics(Car-Parrinello method). The frequency-dependent electric conductivities for the systems are calculated by means of the Kubo-Greenwood formula. The extrapolated DC conductivities are in good agreement with the experimental data and reproduce the strong variation with the concentration. The maximum of conductivity is obtained, in agreement with experiment, near the equimolar composition. The strong variation of conductivity, ranging from almost semiconducting up to metallic behaviour, can be understood by an analysis of the densities-of-states.Comment: LaTex 6 pages and 2 figures, to appear in J.Phys. Cond. Ma

Large marine protected areas represent biodiversity now and under climate change

Large marine protected areas (>30,000 km2) have a high profile in marine conservation, yet their contribution to conservation is contested. Assessing the overlap of large marine protected areas with 14,172 species, we found large marine protected areas cover 4.4% of the ocean and at least some portion of the range of 83.3% of the species assessed. Of all species within large marine protected areas, 26.9% had at least 10% of their range represented, and this was projected to increase to 40.1% in 2100. Cumulative impacts were significantly higher within large marine protected areas than outside, refuting the critique that they only occur in pristine areas. We recommend future large marine protected areas be sited based on systematic conservation planning practices where possible and include areas beyond national jurisdiction, and provide five key recommendations to improve the long-term representation of all species to meet critical global policy goals (e.g., Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Targets

Trophic interactions will expand geographically but be less intense as oceans warm

Interactions among species are likely to change geographically due to climate-driven species range shifts and in intensity due to physiological responses to increasing temperatures. Marine ectotherms experience temperatures closer to their upper thermal limits due to the paucity of temporary thermal refugia compared to those available to terrestrial organisms. Thermal limits of marine ectotherms also vary among species and trophic levels, making their trophic interactions more prone to changes as oceans warm. We assessed how temperature affects reef fish trophic interactions in the Western Atlantic and modeled projections of changes in fish occurrence, biomass, and feeding intensity across latitudes due to climate change. Under ocean warming, tropical reefs will experience diminished trophic interactions, particularly herbivory and invertivory, potentially reinforcing algal dominance in this region. Tropicalization events are more likely to occur in the northern hemisphere, where feeding by tropical herbivores is predicted to expand from the northern Caribbean to extratropical reefs. Conversely, feeding by omnivores is predicted to decrease in this area with minor increases in the Caribbean and southern Brazil. Feeding by invertivores declines across all latitudes in future predictions, jeopardizing a critical trophic link. Most changes are predicted to occur by 2050 and can significantly affect ecosystem functioning, causing dominance shifts and the rise of novel ecosystems.Postprint6,86

Service Discovery Using Communication Fingerprints

A request to a service registry must be answered with a service that fits in several regards, including semantic compatibility, non-functional compatibility, and interface compatibility. In the case of stateful services, there is the additional need to check behavioral (i.e. protocol) compatibility. This paper is concerned with the latter aspect. An apparent approach to establishing behavioral compatibility would be to apply the well-known technology of model checking to a composition of the provided service and the requesting service. However, this procedure must potentially be repeated for all provided services in the registry which may unprohibitively slow down the response time of the broker. Hence, we propose to insert a preprocessing step. It consists of computing an abstraction of the behavior for each published service that we call communication fingerprint. Upon request, we use the fingerprint to rule out as many as possible incompatible services thus reducing the number of candidates that need to be model checked for behavioral compatibility. The technique is based on linear programming and is thus extremely efficient. We validate our approach on a large set of services that we cut out of real world business processes

Ab initio simulations of liquid NaSn alloys: Zintl anions and network formation

Using the Car-Parrinello technique, ab initio molecular dynamics simulations are performed for liquid NaSn alloys in five different compositions (20, 40, 50, 57 and 80 % sodium). The obtained structure factors agree well with the data from neutron scattering experiments. The measured prepeak in the structure factor is reproduced qualitatively for most compositions. The calculated and measured positions of all peaks show the same trend as function of the composition.\\ The dynamic simulations also yield information about the formation and stability of Sn$_4$ clusters (Zintl anions) in the liquid. In our simulations of compositions with 50 and 57 % sodium we observe the formation of networks of tin atoms. Thus, isolated tin clusters are not stable in such liquids. For the composition with 20 % tin only isolated atoms or dimers of tin appear, ``octet compounds'' of one Sn atom surrounded by 4 Na atoms are not observed.Comment: 12 pages, Latex, 3 Figures on reques

Theoretical investigation of carbon defects and diffusion in α-quartz

The geometries, formation energies, and diffusion barriers of carbon point defects in silica (α-quartz) have been calculated using a charge-self-consistent density-functional based nonorthogonal tight-binding method. It is found that bonded interstitial carbon configurations have significantly lower formation energies (on the order of 5 eV) than substitutionals. The activation energy of atomic C diffusion via trapping and detrapping in interstitial positions is about 2.7 eV. Extraction of a CO molecule requires an activation energy <3.1 eV but the CO molecule can diffuse with an activation energy <0.4 eV. Retrapping in oxygen vacancies is hindered—unlike for O2—by a barrier of about 2 eV

Data-driven approach for highlighting priority areas for protection in marine areas beyond national jurisdiction

One of the aims of the United Nations (UN) negotiations on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) is to develop a legal process for the establishment of area-based management tools, including marine protected areas, in ABNJ. Here we use a conservation planning algorithm to integrate 55 global data layers on ABNJ species diversity, habitat heterogeneity, benthic features, productivity, and fishing as a means for highlighting priority regions in ABNJ to be considered for spatial protection. We also include information on forecasted species distributions under climate change. We found that parameterizing the planning algorithm to protect at least 30% of these key ABNJ conservation features, while avoiding areas of high fishing effort, yielded a solution that highlights 52,545,634 km2 (23.7%) of ABNJ as high priority regions for protection. Instructing the planning model to avoid ABNJ areas with high fishing effort resulted in relatively minor shifts in the planning solution, when compared to a separate model that did not consider fishing effort. Integrating information on climate change had a similarly minor influence on the planning solution, suggesting that climate-informed ABNJ protected areas may be able to protect biodiversity now and in the future. This globally standardized, data-driven process for identifying priority ABNJ regions for protection serves as a valuable complement to other expert-driven processes underway to highlight ecologically or biologically significant ABNJ regions. Both the outputs and methods exhibited in this analysis can additively inform UN decision-making concerning establishment of ABNJ protected areas

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina)