Convection and precipitation in the Southern Amazon region: Comparison between a normal and dry year

We examine the diurnal cycles of deep convection and precipitation in the Southern Amazon region, using mainly the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit, contrasting a year of drought (2004-2005) with a “normal” year (2005-2006). MODIS 550nm aerosol optical thickness data and TRMM 3B42 precipitation products were also used to investigate whether a significant relationship between these two parameters can be identified. We use a simple, tractable method to identify convective areas based on humidity channels of AMSU. We found through comparisons with independent ground precipitation data that the diurnal cycle of convection in regional scale can be realistically described by this method. We observe that deep convective areas have a slow build-up early in the rainy season of the dry year, and rapid in the normal year, and in both cases, convection starts around midday. As the rainy season advances, the peak hour of maximum convective activity shifts towards mid-afternoon, and eventually spreads towards the night. During the peak of rainy season (December through February) convective activity was up to 12% larger in the “normal” year. Convective overshooting was found to be 50% less frequent in the drought year compared to the following year. A simple spatial correlation analysis of MODIS 550nm and TRMM 3B42 monthly mean data show d that by the end of dry season, aerosol loading and precipitation amounts have a positive (albeit low) significant correlation

Two case studies of severe storms in the Mediterranean using AMSU

International audienceMediterranean storms and their associated upper level features are diagnosed here using Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) observations. AMSU-A channel 8 is used to identify upper-level intrusions of stratospheric air, which are often present upstream of heavy precipitating areas, while a combination of AMSU-B channels 3 and 5 is chosen to discriminate moderate to heavily precipitating areas. This precipitation detection method provides results that are in good agreement with TRMM rainfall product and independent ground-based precipitation data. These tools allow us to follow the concomitant evolution of two severe rainfall events in the Mediterranean region and associated upper-level features

The role of convective overshooting clouds in tropical stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling

International audienceThis paper investigates the role of deep convection and overshooting convective clouds in stratosphere–troposphere dynamical coupling in the tropics during two large major stratospheric sudden warming events in January 2009 and January 2010. During both events, convective activity and precipitation increased in the equatorial Southern Hemisphere as a result of a strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation induced by enhanced stratospheric planetary wave activity. Correlation coefficients between variables related to the convective activity and the vertical velocity were calculated to identify the processes connecting stratospheric variability to the troposphere. Convective overshooting clouds showed a direct relationship to lower stratospheric upwelling at around 70–50 hPa. As the tropospheric circulation change lags behind that of the stratosphere, outgoing longwave radiation shows almost no simultaneous correlation with the stratospheric upwelling. This result suggests that the stratospheric circulation change first penetrates into the troposphere through the modulation of deep convective activity

Mediterranean hurricanes: large-scale environment and convective and precipitating areas from satellite microwave observations

Subsynoptic scale vortices that have been likened to tropical cyclones or polar lows (medicanes) are occasionally observed over the Mediterranean Sea. Generated over the sea, they are usually associated with strong winds and heavy precipitation and thus can be highly destructive in islands and costal areas. Only an accurate forecasting of such systems could mitigate these effects. However, at the moment, the predictability of these systems remains limited. <br><br> Due to the scarcity of conventional observations, use is made of NOAA/MetOp satellite observations, for which advantage can be taken of the time coverage differences between the platforms that carry it, to give a very complete temporal description of the disturbances. A combination of AMSU-B (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B)/MHS (Microwave Humidity Sounder) observations permit to investigate precipitation associated with these systems while coincident AMSU-A (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) observations give insights into the larger synoptic-scale environment in which they occur. <br><br> Three different cases (in terms of intensity, location, trajectory, duration, and periods of the year – May, September and December, respectively) were investigated. Throughout these time periods, AMSU-A observations show that the persisting deep outflow of cold air over the sea together with an upper-level trough upstream constituted a favourable environment for the development of medicanes. AMSU-B/MHS based diagnostics show that convection and precipitation areas are large in the early stage of the low, but significantly reduced afterwards. Convection is maximum just after the upper-level trough, located upstream of cold mid-tropospheric air, reached its maximum intensity and acquired a cyclonic orientation

Temperature climatology with Rayleigh lidar above Observatory of Haute-provence : dynamical feedback

International audienceRayleigh lidar in synergy with satellite observations (SSU and AMSU) allow insuring an efficient monitoring and showing that cooling has continued. New approach for trend detection has been developed allowing a better estimate of changes due to radiative forcing. Stratospheric Warmings and gravity waves contribute to insure a dynamical feedback of the long-term changes

Precipitación extrema en la Puna del Desierto de Atacama: ¿Cómo gestionar la incertidumbre actual y futura?

Chile is one of the Latin American countries most affected by Climate Change. There is a high level of uncertainty regarding the variability of precipitation and its projections in many regions of this country. This poses challenges for climate characterization and for defining strategies to reduce its risks. The study area is the Puna of Atacama Desert, Andean highlands located to the eastern side of the extreme arid lands, a region that concentrates the main copper and lithium mining at word scale, and where meteorological observations are scarce, with missing data and unreliable projections. Considering this data limitations, a daily precipitation database of 35 weather stations was constructed in order to evaluate some extreme precipitation indices that allow establishing changes between 1981-2017, in addition to spatial interpolations based on topography. It is concluded that most of the meteorological stations do not present significant trends of change, e.g. Extremely wet days (R99p), Wet days (RR) and Consecutive wet days (CWD). The index with the highest number of stations with a trend is CDD, which shows an increase in consecutive dry days. One of the main contributions of this research was to expand the number of observations and to generate maps of the spatial distribution of the indices of extremes. We are facing open questions regarding living with uncertainty, and meeting the challenges of maintaining records to increase the levels of certainty of climatic changes.Chile es uno de los países de América Latina más afectados por el cambio climático. Existe un elevado nivel de incertidumbre respecto a la variabilidad de las precipitaciones y sus proyecciones en muchas de sus regiones. Ello plantea desafíos para su caracterización climática y para definir estrategias para reducir los riesgos asociados. Se estudia la Puna del Desierto de Atacama, paisaje andino de altura que bordea las tierras áridas por el lado este, y que concentran las principales minas de cobre y litio a escala mundial, y donde existen escasas observaciones meteorológicas, con datos perdidos y proyecciones de poca fiabilidad. Es por ello que se construyó una base diaria de precipitación de 35 estaciones con el fin de evaluar algunos índices extremos que permitan establecer cambios entre 1981-2017, además de interpolaciones espaciales basadas en la topografía. Se concluye que la mayoría de las estaciones meteorológicas no presenta tendencias significativas de cambio, destacando días extremadamente húmedos (R99p), días húmedos (RR) y días húmedos consecutivos (CWD). El índice con mayor cantidad de estaciones con tendencia es CDD, que muestra un incremento de los días consecutivos secos. Uno de los principales aportes de esta investigación fue ampliar el número de observaciones y generar mapas de la distribución espacial de los índices de extremos. Nos quedan preguntas abiertas respecto a convivir con la incertidumbre, y alcanzar desafíos de mantener los registros para aumentar los niveles de certeza de los cambios climáticos.The authors acknowledge support by the Program CLIMAT AmSud Project PRELASA (21-CLIMAT-12)

The impact of tropical tropopause cooling on Sahelian extreme deep convection

Previous studies have suggested that the recent increase in tropical extreme deep convection, in particular over Asia and Africa during the boreal summer, has occurred in association with cooling in the tropical lower stratosphere. The present study is focused on the Sahel region of West Africa, where an increased occurrence of extreme precipitation events has been reported over recent decades. The results indicate that the changes over West Africa since the 1980s involve a cooling trend in the tropical lower stratosphere and tropopause layer, combined with warming in the troposphere. This feature is similar to that which might result from increased greenhouse-gas levels but is distinct from the interannual variation of precipitation associated with the transport of water vapor from the Atlantic Ocean. It is suggested that the decrease in the vertical temperature gradient in the tropical tropopause region enhances extreme deep convection over the Sahel, where penetrating convection is frequent, whereas tropospheric warming suppresses the shallower convection over the Guinea Coast. Therefore, the essential feature of the recent changes over West Africa is the depth of convection rather than the total amount of surface precipitation

Rethinking drug design in the artificial intelligence era

Artificial intelligence (AI) tools are increasingly being applied in drug discovery. While some protagonists point to vast opportunities potentially offered by such tools, others remain sceptical, waiting for a clear impact to be shown in drug discovery projects. The reality is probably somewhere in-between these extremes, yet it is clear that AI is providing new challenges not only for the scientists involved but also for the biopharma industry and its established processes for discovering and developing new medicines. This article presents the views of a diverse group of international experts on the 'grand challenges' in small-molecule drug discovery with AI and the approaches to address them