Climate Change, Habitat Loss, Protected Areas and the Climate Adaptation Potential of Species in Mediterranean Ecosystems Worldwide

Mediterranean climate is found on five continents and supports five global biodiversity hotspots. Based on combined downscaled results from 23 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for three emissions scenarios, we determined the projected spatial shifts in the mediterranean climate extent (MCE) over the next century. Although most AOGCMs project a moderate expansion in the global MCE, regional impacts are large and uneven. The median AOGCM simulation output for the three emissions scenarios project the MCE at the end of the 21st century in Chile will range from 129–153% of its current size, while in Australia, it will contract to only 77–49% of its current size losing an area equivalent to over twice the size of Portugal. Only 4% of the land area within the current MCE worldwide is in protected status (compared to a global average of 12% for all biome types), and, depending on the emissions scenario, only 50–60% of these protected areas are likely to be in the future MCE. To exacerbate the climate impact, nearly one third (29–31%) of the land where the MCE is projected to remain stable has already been converted to human use, limiting the size of the potential climate refuges and diminishing the adaptation potential of native biota. High conversion and low protection in projected stable areas make Australia the highest priority region for investment in climate-adaptation strategies to reduce the threat of climate change to the rich biodiversity of the mediterranean biome

Contribution of spatially explicit models to climate change adaptation and mitigation plans for a priority forest habitat

Climate change will impact forest ecosystems, their biodiversity and the livelihoods they sustain. Several adaptation and mitigation strategies to counteract climate change impacts have been proposed for these ecosystems. However, effective implementation of such strategies requires a clear understanding of how climate change will influence the future distribution of forest ecosystems. This study uses maximum entropy modelling (MaxEnt) to predict environmentally suitable areas for cork oak (Quercus suber) woodlands, a socio-economically important forest ecosystem protected by the European Union Habitats Directive. Specifically, we use two climate change scenarios to predict changes in environmental suitability across the entire geographical range of the cork oak and in areas where stands were recently established. Up to 40 % of current environmentally suitable areas for cork oak may be lost by 2070, mainly in northern Africa and southern Iberian Peninsula. Almost 90 % of new cork oak stands are predicted to lose suitability by the end of the century, but future plantations can take advantage of increasing suitability in northern Iberian Peninsula and France. The predicted impacts cross-country borders, showing that a multinational strategy, will be required for cork oak woodland adaptation to climate change. Such a strategy must be regionally adjusted, featuring the protection of refugia sites in southern areas and stimulating sustainable forest management in areas that will keep long-term suitability. Afforestation efforts should also be promoted but must consider environmental suitability and land competition issues

Variation in xylem vulnerability to embolism in European beech from geographically marginal populations

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts and heatwaves in Europe, leading to effects on forest growth and major forest dieback events due to hydraulic failure caused by xylem embolism. Inter-specific variability in embolism resistance has been studied in detail, but little is known about intra-specific variability, particularly in marginal populations. We evaluated 15 European beech populations, mostly from geographically marginal sites of the species distribution range, focusing particularly on populations from the dry southern margin. We found small, but significant differences in resistance to embolism between populations, with xylem pressures causing 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity ranging from −2.84 to −3.55 MPa. Significant phenotypic clines of increasing embolism resistance with increasing temperature and aridity were observed: the southernmost beech populations growing in a warmer drier climate and with lower habitat suitability have higher resistance to embolism than those from Northern Europe growing more favourable conditions. Previous studies have shown that there is little or no difference in embolism resistance between core populations, but our findings show that marginal populations have developed ways of protecting their xylem based on either evolution or plasticity

Trade-offs and Trait Integration in Tree Phenotypes: Consequences for the Sustainable Use of Genetic Resources

Purpose of Review In this review, we synthesise current knowledge on trade-offs among traits in key fitness dimensions and identify major research gaps with the intention of laying the groundwork for a rapid advance in tree breeding for multiple objectives as a key contribution to the sustainability of planted forests in the future. Recent Findings Trade-offs among growth, reproduction, defence, stress tolerance and product quality predicted theoretically have been reported experimentally in many breeding programmes. Among these trade-offs, the genetic linkage between resistance against biotic threats and growth (or other relevant traits) is particularly critical for the current and future management of forest genetic resources. Maintaining tree growth and wood quality in the novel environments of the future requires the assessment of genetic correlations of target traits with phenology, closely linked to survival to temperature extremes. Improving our current knowledge on the genetic trade-offs of drought tolerance as a breeding objective in forest trees obligates a more precise definition of both the specific traits and the experimental conditions. Published evidence suggests that common target traits in breeding programmes may trade-off with reproductive success and fire-adaptation, and the simultaneous improvement of growth and wood quality traits still remains as a constraint in traditional tree breeding. Summary Changing environments combined with pests and diseases are challenging plantation forestry worldwide, which implies an urgent need to develop new improvement strategies to build the resilience of forestry for our future environments. It is essential to have a better understanding of how traits interact, especially those important for production, climate and biotic threat resilience, but much of the information is still missing. Since many key trade-offs are affected by the environment, we need new studies under novel environments to forecast levels of multi-trait integration in breeding populations

SPARC promotes leukemic cell growth and predicts acute myeloid leukemia outcome

Aberrant expression of the secreted protein, acidic, cysteine-rich (osteonectin) (SPARC) gene, which encodes a matricellular protein that participates in normal tissue remodeling, is associated with a variety of diseases including cancer, but the contribution of SPARC to malignant growth remains controversial. We previously reported that SPARC was among the most upregulated genes in cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia (CN-AML) patients with gene-expression profiles predictive of unfavorable outcome, such as mutations in isocitrate dehydrogenase 2 (IDH2-R172) and overexpression of the oncogenes brain and acute leukemia, cytoplasmic (BAALC) and v-ets erythroblastosis virus E26 oncogene homolog (ERG). In contrast, SPARC was downregulated in CN-AML patients harboring mutations in nucleophosmin (NPM1) that are associated with favorable prognosis. Based on these observations, we hypothesized that SPARC expression is clinically relevant in AML. Here, we found that SPARC overexpression is associated with adverse outcome in CN-AML patients and promotes aggressive leukemia growth in murine models of AML. In leukemia cells, SPARC expression was mediated by the SP1/NF-κB transactivation complex. Furthermore, secreted SPARC activated the integrin-linked kinase/AKT (ILK/AKT) pathway, likely via integrin interaction, and subsequent β-catenin signaling, which is involved in leukemia cell self-renewal. Pharmacologic inhibition of the SP1/NF-κB complex resulted in SPARC downregulation and leukemia growth inhibition. Together, our data indicate that evaluation of SPARC expression has prognosticative value and SPARC is a potential therapeutic target for AML