Using Machine Learning to Automatically Detect Volcanic Unrest in a Time Series of Interferograms

The latest generation of synthetic aperture radar satellites produce measurements of ground deformation at the majority of the world's subaerial active volcanoes and can be used to detect signs of volcanic unrest. We present an automatic detection algorithm that uses these data to automatically warn when deformation at a volcano departs from the background. We demonstrate our approach on synthetic data sets and the unrest leading to the 2018 eruption of Sierra Negra (Galapagos). Our algorithm encompasses spatial independent component analysis and uses a significantly improved version of the ICASO algorithm, which we term ICASAR, to robustly perform spatial independent component analysis. We use ICASAR to isolate signals of geophysical interest from atmospheric signals, before monitoring the evolution of these signals through time in order to detect the onset of a period of volcanic unrest

A meta-analysis of alcohol drinking and cancer risk

To evaluate the strength of the evidence provided by the epidemiological literature on the association between alcohol consumption and the risk of 18 neoplasms, we performed a search of the epidemiological literature from 1966 to 2000 using several bibliographic databases. Meta-regression models were fitted considering linear and non-linear effects of alcohol intake. The effects of characteristics of the studies, of selected covariates (tobacco) and of the gender of individuals included in the studies, were also investigated as putative sources of heterogeneity of the estimates. A total of 235 studies including over 117 000 cases were considered. Strong trends in risk were observed for cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx, oesophagus and larynx. Less strong direct relations were observed for cancers of the stomach, colon and rectum, liver, breast and ovary. For all these diseases, significant increased risks were found also for ethanol intake of 25 g per day. No significant nor consistent relation was observed for cancers of the pancreas, lung, prostate or bladder. Allowance for tobacco appreciably modified the relations with laryngeal, lung and bladder cancers, but not those with oral, oesophageal or colorectal cancers. This meta-analysis showed no evidence of a threshold effect for most alcohol-related neoplasms. The inference is limited by absence of distinction between lifelong abstainers and former drinkers in several studies, and the possible selective inclusion of relevant sites only in cohort studies. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co

Inversion of Surface Deformation Data for Rapid Estimates of Source Parameters and Uncertainties: A Bayesian Approach

New satellite missions (e.g., the European Space Agency's Sentinel‐1 constellation), advances in data downlinking, and rapid product generation now provide us with the ability to access space‐geodetic data within hours of their acquisition. To truly take advantage of this opportunity, we need to be able to interpret geodetic data in a prompt and robust manner. Here we present a Bayesian approach for the inversion of multiple geodetic data sets that allows a rapid characterization of posterior probability density functions (PDFs) of source model parameters. The inversion algorithm efficiently samples posterior PDFs through a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, incorporating the Metropolis‐Hastings algorithm, with automatic step size selection. We apply our approach to synthetic geodetic data simulating deformation of magmatic origin and demonstrate its ability to retrieve known source parameters. We also apply the inversion algorithm to interferometric synthetic aperture radar data measuring co‐seismic displacements for a thrust‐faulting earthquake (2015 Mw 6.4 Pishan earthquake, China) and retrieve optimal source parameters and associated uncertainties. Given its robustness and rapidity in estimating deformation source parameters and uncertainties, our Bayesian framework is capable of taking advantage of real‐time geodetic measurements. Thus, our approach can be applied to geodetic data to study magmatic, tectonic, and other geophysical processes, especially in rapid‐response operational settings (e.g., volcano observatories). Our algorithm is fully implemented in a MATLAB®‐based software package (Geodetic Bayesian Inversion Software) that we make freely available to the scientific community

Expression of tumor-associated antigens in breast cancer subtypes

OBJECTIVES: Tumor-associated antigens (TAAs) are frequently overexpressed in several cancer types. The aim of this study was to investigate the expression of TAAs in breast cancer. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 250 selected invasive breast cancers including 50 estrogen receptor (ER)-positive (Luminal B like), 50 triple-negative (TN), 50 ER-positive lobular type, 50 ER- and progesterone receptor (PgR)-positive (Luminal A like) and 50 cerbB2-positive breast cancers, were assessed for New York esophageal squamous cell carcinoma-1 (NY-ESO-1), Wilms tumor antigen (WT-1) and PReferentially expressed Antigen of MElanoma (PRAME) antigen expression by immunohistochemistry (IHC). RESULTS: A significantly higher expression of cancer testis (CT)-antigens NY-ESO-1 and WT-1 antigen was detected in TN breast cancers compared with ER-positive tumors. NY-ESO-1 overexpression (score 2 + and 3+) assessed by monoclonal and polyclonal antibodies was detected in 9 (18%) TN cancers as compared to 2 (4%) ER-positive tumors (p = 0.002). WT1 over-expression (score 2 + and 3+) was confirmed in 27 (54%) TN tumor samples as compared to 6 (12%) ER-positive (p < 0.0001). PRAME over-expression (score 2 + and 3+) was detected in 8 (16%) HER2 positive tumor samples as compared to no TN and ER-positive cancers (p = 0.0021). CONCLUSIONS: NY-ESO-1 and WT1 antigens are overexpressed in TN breast cancers. Because of the limited therapeutic options for this patient subgroup, CT antigen-based vaccines might prove to be useful for patients with this phenotype of breast cancer

p 300predictive value of circulating tumor derived dna ctdna in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer larc treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy ct rt preliminary results

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Joint modelling of bivariate longitudinal data : Application to the recovery of sexual function and urinary continence

(E0871) The following methodological issues occur in the context of the longitudinal study of sexual dysfunction and urinary incontinence after radical prostatectomy: (i) high dropout rate due to the extremely sensitive nature of the investigated outcomes; (ii) correlation between the two outcomes; (iii) non-linearity of the recovery trajectories. To address all these issues, we propose the use of a joint modelling approach, including a bivariate linear mixed model with splines for the two outcomes and a proportional hazards model for the time to dropout. We applied the model to data from consecutive patients underwent robotic-assisted radical prostatectomy at European institute of oncology from May 2015 to July 2016. Preand post-surgical sexual and urinary functional conditions were evaluated using the expanded prostate cancer index composite questionnaire. Six hundred forty three patients were included in the analysis. At one year after surgery, only 55% of patients returned the questionnaire. Parameters estimation was based on the maximisation of the likelihood function achieved through the implementation of an EM algorithm. A Gauss Hermite approximation was also used for some of the integrals involved. To assess the effect of nonrandom dropout mechanisms on the parameter estimates, we calculated the index of local sensitivity to non-ignorability

Cancer-testis antigen expression in triple-negative breast cancer

Background: Cancer-testis (CT) antigens, frequently expressed in human germline cells but not in somatic tissues, may become aberrantly reexpressed in different cancer types. The aim of this study was to investigate the expression of CT antigens in breast cancer. Patients and methods: A total of 100 selected invasive breast cancers, including 50 estrogen receptor (ER) positive/HER2 negative and 50 triple negative (TN), were examined for NY-ESO-1 and MAGE-A expression by immunohistochemistry. Results: A significantly higher expression of MAGE-A and NY-ESO-1 was detected in TN breast cancers compared with ER-positive tumors (P = 0.04). MAGE-A expression was detected in 13 (26%) TN cancers compared with 5 (10%) ER-positive tumors (P = 0.07). NY-ESO-1 expression was confirmed in nine (18%) TN tumor samples compared with two (4%) ER-positive tumors. Conclusions: MAGE-A and NY-ESO-1 CT antigens are expressed in a substantial proportion of TN breast cancers. Because of the limited therapeutic options for this group of patients, CT antigen-based vaccines might prove to be useful for patients with this phenotype of breast cance

How caldera collapse shapes the shallow emplacement and transfer of magma in active volcanoes

Calderas are topographic depressions formed by the collapse of a partly drained magma reservoir. At volcanic edifices with calderas, eruptive fissures can circumscribe the outer caldera rim, be oriented radially and/or align with the regional tectonic stress field. Constraining the mechanisms that govern this spatial arrangement is fundamental to understand the dynamics of shallow magma storage and transport and evaluate volcanic hazard. Here we show with numerical models that the previously unappreciated unloading effect of caldera formation may contribute significantly to the stress budget of a volcano. We first test this hypothesis against the ideal case of Fernandina, Galápagos, where previous models only partly explained the peculiar pattern of circumferential and radial eruptive fissures and the geometry of the intrusions determined by inverting the deformation data. We show that by taking into account the decompression due to the caldera formation, the modeled edifice stress field is consistent with all the observations. We then develop a general model for the stress state at volcanic edifices with calderas based on the competition of caldera decompression, magma buoyancy forces and tectonic stresses. These factors control: 1) the shallow accumulation of magma in stacked sills, consistently with observations; 2) the conditions for the development of circumferential and/or radial eruptive fissures, as observed on active volcanoes. This top-down control exerted by changes in the distribution of mass at the surface allows better understanding of how shallow magma is transferred at active calderas, contributing to forecasting the location and type of opening fissures

Dose-response relationship between cigarette smoking and site-specific cancer risk : protocol for a systematic review with an original design combining umbrella and traditional reviews

Introduction Only a limited number of meta-analyses providing risk curve functions of dose-response relationships between various smoking-related variables and cancer-specific risk are available. Methods and analysis To identify all relevant original publications on the issue, we will conduct a series of comprehensive systematic reviews based on three subsequent literature searches: (1) an umbrella review, to identify meta-analyses, pooled analyses and systematic reviews published before 28 April 2017 on the association between cigarette smoking and the risk of 28 (namely all) malignant neoplasms; (2) for each cancer site, an updated review of original publications on the association between cigarette smoking and cancer risk, starting from the last available comprehensive review identified through the umbrella review; and (3) a review of all original articles on the association between cigarette smoking and site-specific cancer risk included in the publications identified through the umbrella review and the updated reviews. The primary outcomes of interest will be (1) the excess incidence/mortality of various cancers for smokers compared with never smokers; and (2) the dose-response curves describing the association between smoking intensity, duration and time since stopping and incidence/mortality for various cancers. For each cancer site, we will perform a meta-analysis by pooling study-specific estimates for smoking status. We will also estimate the dose-response curves for other smoking-related variables through random-effects meta-regression models based on a non-linear dose-response relationship framework. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval is not required for this study. Main results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and will also be included in a publicly available website. We will provide therefore the most complete and updated estimates on the association between various measures of cigarette smoking and site-specific cancer risk. This will allow us to obtain precise estimates on the cancer burden attributable to cigarette smoking. Trial registration number This protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42017063991)

Prognosis of selected triple negative apocrine breast cancer patients who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy

Background: Triple negative breast cancer encompasses several biological entities with different outcomes and is a priority to identify which patients require more treatment to reduce the risk of recurrence and which patients need less treatment. Patients and methods: Among the 210 women with first primary invasive apocrine non metastatic breast cancer operated on between January 1998 and December 2016 at the European Institute Oncology, Milan, we identified 24 patients with a pT1-pT2, node-negative, triple negative subtype and Ki-67 64 20% who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy (CT). We compared the outcome of this cohort with a similar group of 24 patients with ductal tumors who received adjuvant chemotherapy, matched by pathological stage and biological features and also with a similar group of 12 patients with apocrine tumors who received adjuvant chemotherapy. Results: The median age was 64 and 61 years in the apocrine (w/o CT) and ductal group, respectively. The median value of Ki-67 expression was 12% in the apocrine group (w/o CT) and 16% in the ductal group (p < 0.001). After a median follow-up of 7.5 years, no patients in the apocrine group (w/o CT) experienced a breast cancer related event compared with 4 events in the ductal carcinoma group (Gray test p-value = 0.11). Conclusions: The outcome of selected apocrine triple negative breast cancer patients who did not received adjuvant chemotherapy is excellent and supports a treatment de-escalation. Multicenter projects focusing on the possibility of avoiding adjuvant chemotherapy in selected subtypes of triple negative breast cancers with favorable outcome are warranted