The prevalence of cardiac complications and their impact on outcomes in patients with non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage.

Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is a serious condition, and a myocardial injury or dysfunction could contribute to the outcome. We assessed the prevalence and prognostic impact of cardiac involvement in a cohort with SAH. This is a prospective observational multicenter study. We included 192 patients treated for non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage. We performed ECG recordings, echocardiographic examinations, and blood sampling within 24 h of admission and on days 3 and 7 and at 90 days. The primary endpoint was the evidence of cardiac involvement at 90 days, and the secondary endpoint was to examine the prevalence of a myocardial injury or dysfunction. The median age was 54.5 (interquartile range [IQR] 48.0-64.0) years, 44.3% were male and the median World Federation of Neurological Surgeons (WFNS) score was 2 (IQR 1-4). At day 90, 22/125 patients (17.6%) had left ventricular ejection fractions ≤ 50%, and 2/121 patients (1.7%) had evidence of a diastolic dysfunction as defined by mitral peak E-wave velocity by peak e' velocity (E/e') > 14. There was no prognostic impact from echocardiographic evidence of cardiac complications on neurological outcomes. The overall prevalence of cardiac dysfunction was modest. We found no demographic or SAH-related factors associated with 90 days cardiac dysfunction

Application of non-HDL cholesterol for population-based cardiovascular risk stratification: results from the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment. METHODS: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol. FINDINGS: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7-59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0-20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0-1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6-2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0-1·3 to 2·3, 2·0-2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced. INTERPRETATION: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician-patient communication about primary prevention strategies. FUNDING: EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research

Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. METHODS: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.)

SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe

Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe.Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries.Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.Cardiolog

Cardiac troponin I measured with a very high sensitivity assay predicts subclinical carotid atherosclerosis: The Akershus Cardiac Examination 1950 Study

Aims Concentrations of cardiac troponin I (cTnI) are associated with incident ischemic stroke and predict the presence and severity of coronary atherosclerosis. Accordingly, we hypothesized that concentrations of cTnI measured with a very high sensitivity (hs-) assay would be associated with subclinical stages of carotid atherosclerosis in the general population. Methods We measured hs-cTnI on the Singulex Clarity System in 1745 women and 1666 men participating in the prospective observational Akershus Cardiac Examination 1950 Study. All study participants were free from known coronary heart disease and underwent extensive cardiovascular phenotyping at baseline, including carotid ultrasound. We quantified carotid atherosclerosis by the carotid plaque score, carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and the presence of hypoechoic plaques. Results Concentrations of hs-cTnI were measurable in 99.8% of study participants and were significantly associated with increased carotid plaque score (odds ratio for quartile 4 of hs-cTnI 1.59, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.07, p for trend < 0.001) and cIMT (odds ratio for quartile 4 of hs-cTnI 1.57, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.42, p for trend = 0.036), but not with the presence of hypoechoic plaques. hs-cTnI concentrations significantly improved reclassification and discrimination models in predicting carotid plaques when added to cardiovascular risk factors, no improvements were evident in predicting cIMT or hypoechoic plaques. Conclusion Concentrations of cTnI measured with a very high sensitivity assay are predictive of carotid atherosclerotic burden, a phenomenon likely attributable to common risk factors of subclinical myocardial injury, coronary and carotid atherosclerosis

Trajectories of cardiac troponin in the decades before cardiovascular death: a longitudinal cohort study

Background: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin testing is a promising tool for cardiovascular risk prediction, but whether serial testing can dynamically predict risk is uncertain. We evaluated the trajectory of cardiac troponin I in the years prior to a cardiovascular event in the general population, and determine whether serial measurements could track risk within individuals.// Methods: In the Whitehall II cohort, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentrations were measured on three occasions over a 15-year period. Time trajectories of troponin were constructed in those who died from cardiovascular disease compared to those who survived or died from other causes during follow up and these were externally validated in the HUNT Study. A joint model that adjusts for cardiovascular risk factors was used to estimate risk of cardiovascular death using serial troponin measurements.// Results: In 7,293 individuals (mean 58 ± 7 years, 29.4% women) cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular death occurred in 281 (3.9%) and 914 (12.5%) individuals (median follow-up 21.4 years), respectively. Troponin concentrations increased in those dying from cardiovascular disease with a steeper trajectory compared to those surviving or dying from other causes in Whitehall and HUNT (Pinteraction < 0.05 for both). The joint model demonstrated an independent association between temporal evolution of troponin and risk of cardiovascular death (HR per doubling, 1.45, 95% CI,1.33–1.75).// Conclusions: Cardiac troponin I concentrations increased in those dying from cardiovascular disease compared to those surviving or dying from other causes over the preceding decades. Serial cardiac troponin testing in the general population has potential to track future cardiovascular risk./

Blood pressure at age 40 predicts carotid atherosclerosis two decades later: Data from the Akershus Cardiac Examination 1950 Study

Objective: We assessed the impact of a single time-point measurement of SBP, DBP and pulse pressure at the age of 40, on carotid plaque burden, echolucent plaques and carotid intima–media thickness late midlife. Methods: Individuals participating in two separate studies, 23 years apart, defined our cohort (n = 2714). ‘The Age 40 Program’, a nationwide Norwegian cardiovascular screening survey, performed 1985–1999, assessed cardiovascular risk factors and lifestyle variables at age 40. ‘The ACE 1950 Study’, a population-based cohort study on individuals born in 1950, performed 2012–2015, included ultrasound examinations of the carotid arteries. Blood pressure (BP) determinants of carotid atherosclerosis were assessed by regression models adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors at age 40, and late midlife BP. Results: The participants, 50.3% women, had a mean age of 40 (SD 0.3) years in the first study, and 64 (SD 0.6) years in the second. At age 40, mean SBP was 128 (SD 14) mmHg, mean DBP was 78 (SD 10) mmHg and mean pulse pressure was 50 (SD 9) mmHg. SBP and DBP at age 40 predicted carotid plaque burden in late midlife. Only DBP predicted echolucent plaques, and none of the BP components predicted carotid intima–media thickness. Conclusion: A single time-point measurement of SBP and DBP at age 40 is associated with carotid plaque burden late midlife, also after adjustment for other cardiovascular risk factors at age 40, and of late midlife BP. Our findings emphasize the strong association between BP and atherosclerosis