Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies

The European continent is regularly affected by a wide range of extreme events and natural hazards including heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, cold spells, windstorms, and storm surges. Many of these events do not occur as single extreme events, but rather show a multivariate character, the so-called compound events. Within the scope of the interdisciplinary project climXtreme (https://climxtreme.net/), we investigate the interplay of extreme weather events, their characteristics and changes, intensity, frequency and uncertainties in the past, present and future and associated impacts on various socio-economic sectors in Germany and Central Europe. This contribution presents several case studies with special emphasis on the calendar year of 2018, which is of particular interest given the exceptional sequence of different compound events across large parts of Europe, with devastating impacts on human lives, ecosystems and infrastructure. We provide new evidence on drivers of spatially and temporally compound events (heat and drought; heavy precipitation in combination with extreme winds) with adverse impacts on ecosystems and society using large-scale atmospheric patterns. We shed light on the interannual influence of droughts on surface water and the impact of water scarcity and heatwaves on agriculture and forests. We assessed projected changes in compound events at different current and future global surface temperature levels, demonstrating the importance of better quantifying the likelihood of future extreme events for adaptation planning. Finally, we addressed research needs and future pathways, emphasising the need to define composite events primarily in terms of their impacts prior to their statistical characterisation

On the representation of Mediterranean overflow waters in global climate models

Accurate representation of the Atlantic–Mediterranean exchange in climate models is important for a reliable simulation of the circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. We evaluate the performance of 10 global climate models in representing Mediterranean Overflow Water (MOW) over the recent period 1986–2005 by using various performance metrics. The metrics are based on the representation of the climatological mean state and the spatiotemporal variability of temperature, salinity, and volume transports. On the basis of analyses and observations, we perform a model ranking by calculating absolute, relative, and total relative errors Ej over each performance metric and model. The majority of models simulate at least six metrics well. The equilibrium depth of the MOW, the mean Atlantic–Mediterranean exchange flow, and the dominant pattern of the MOW are represented reasonably well by most of the models. Of those models considered, MPI-ESM-MR, MPI-ESM-LR, CSIRO Mk3.6.0, and MRI-CGCM3 provide the best MOW representation (Ej = 0.14, 0.19, 0.19, and 0.25, respectively). They are thus likely to be the most suitable choices for studies of MOW-dependent processes. However, the models experience salinity, temperature, and transport biases and do not represent temporal variability accurately. The implications of our results for future model analysis of the Mediterranean Sea overflow are discussed

CCR7 Governs Skin Dendritic Cell Migration under Inflammatory and Steady-State Conditions

AbstractThe CC chemokine receptor CCR7 has been identified as a key regulator of homeostatic B and T cell trafficking to secondary lymphoid organs. Data presented here demonstrate that CCR7 is also an essential mediator for entry of both dermal and epidermal dendritic cells (DC) into the lymphatic vessels within the dermis while this receptor is dispensable for the mobilization of Langerhans cells from the epidermis to the dermis. Moreover, a distinct population of CD11c+MHCIIhigh DC showing low expression of the costimulatory molecules CD40, CD80, and CD86 in wild-type animals was virtually absent in skin-draining lymph nodes of CCR7-deficient mice under steady-state conditions. We provide evidence that these cells represent a semimature population of DC that is capable of initiating T cell proliferation under conditions known to induce tolerance. Thus, our data identify CCR7 as a key regulator that governs trafficking of skin DC under both inflammatory and steady-state conditions