The effect of human land use change in the Hadley Centre attribution system

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordAtmospheric Science Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. We have investigated the effects of land use on past climate change by means of a new 15-member ensemble of the HadGEM3-A-N216 model, usually used for event attribution studies. This ensemble runs from 1960 to 2013, and includes natural external climate forcings with the addition of human land use changes. It supports previously-existing ensembles, either with only natural forcings, or with all forcings (both anthropogenic and natural, including land use changes), in determining the contribution to the change in risk of extreme events made by land use change. We found a significant difference in near-surface air temperature trends over land, attributable to the effects of human land use. The main part of the signal derives from a relative cooling in Arctic regions which closely matches that of deforestation. This cooling appears to spread by polar amplification. A similar pattern of change is seen in latent heat flux trend, but significant rainfall change is almost entirely absent.Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Met Office Hadley Centre Climate ProgrammeDepartment for Environment, Food and Rural AffairsEuropean CommissionUK‐China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund, Newton Fun

Concentration and localization of zinc during seed development and germination in wheat

In a field experiment, the effect of foliar Zn applications on the concentration of Zn in seeds of a bread wheat cultivar (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Balatilla) was studied during different stages of seed development. In addition, a staining method using dithizone (DTZ: diphenyl thiocarbazone) was applied to (1) study the localization of Zn in seeds, (2) follow the remobilization of Zn during germination, and (3) develop a rapid visual Zn screening method for seed and flour samples. In all seed development stages, foliar Zn treatments were effective in increasing seed Zn concentration. The highest Zn concentration in the seeds was found in the first stage of seed development (around the early milk stage); after this, seed Zn concentration gradually decreased until maturity. When reacting with Zn, DTZ forms a redcolored complex. The DTZ staining of seed samples revealed that Zn is predominantly located in the embryo and aleurone parts of the seeds. After 36 h of germination, the coleoptile and roots that emerged from seeds showed very intensive red color formation and had Zn concentrations up to 200 mg kg1, indicating a substantial remobilization of Zn from seed pools into the developing roots (radicle) and coleoptile. The DTZ staining method seems to be useful in ranking flour samples for their Zn concentrations. There was a close relationship between the seed Zn concentrations and spectral absorbance of the methanol extracts of the flour samples stained with DTZ. The results suggest that (1) accumulation of Zn in seeds is particularly high during early seed development, (2) Zn is concentrated in the embryo and aleurone parts, and (3) the DTZ staining method can be used as a rapid, semiquantitative method to estimate Zn concentrations of flour and seed samples and to screen genotypes for their Zn concentrations in seeds

Detectable anthropogenic influence on changes in summer precipitation in China

This is the final version. Available from the American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this recordIn China, summer precipitation contributes a major part of the total precipitation amount in a year and has major impacts on society and human life. Whether any changes in summer precipitation are affected by external forcing on the climate system is an important issue. In this study, an optimal fingerprinting method was used to compare the observed changes of total, heavy, moderate, and light precipitation in summer derived from newly homogenized observation data with the simulations from multiple climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results demonstrate that the anthropogenic forcing signal can be detected and separated from the natural forcing signal in the observed increase of seasonal accumulated precipitation amount for heavy precipitation in summer in China and eastern China (EC). The simulated changes in heavy precipitation are generally consistent with observed change in China but are underestimated in EC. When the changes in precipitation of different intensities are considered simultaneously, the human influence on simultaneous changes in moderate and light precipitation can be detected in China and EC in summer. Changes attributable to anthropogenic forcing explain most of the observed regional changes for all categories of summer precipitation, and natural forcing contributes little. In the future, with increasing anthropogenic influence, the attribution-constrained projection suggests that heavy precipitation in summer will increasemore than that from the model raw outputs. Society may therefore face a higher risk of heavy precipitation in the future.National Key R&D Program of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaUK‐China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund, Newton FundMet Office Hadley Centre Climate Programm

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed Sea Surface Temperature of the 54 year period 1960-2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land-atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution

Seasonal variation of water uptake of a Quercus suber tree in Central Portugal

Hydraulic redistribution (HR) is the phenomenon where plant roots transfer water between soil horizons of different water potential. When dry soil is a stronger sink for water loss from the plant than transpiration, water absorbed by roots in wetter soil horizons is transferred toward, and exuded into dry soil via flow reversals through the roots. Reverse flow is a good marker of HR and can serve as a useful tool to study it over the long-term. Seasonal variation of water uptake of a Quercus suber tree was studied from late winter through autumn 2003 at Rio Frio near Lisbon, Portugal. Sap flow was measured in five small shallow roots (diameter of 3–4 cm), 1 to 2 m from the tree trunk and in four azimuths and at different xylem depths at the trunk base, using the heat field deformation method (HFD). The pattern of sap flow differed among lateral roots as soil dried with constant positive flow in three roots and reverse flow in two other roots during the night when transpiration ceased. Rain modified the pattern of flow in these two roots by eliminating reverse flow and substantially increasing water uptake for transpiration during the day. The increase in water uptake in three other roots following rain was not so substantial. In addition, the flux in individual roots was correlated to different degrees with the flux at different radial depths and azimuthal directions in trunk xylem. The flow in outer trunk xylem seemed to be mostly consistent with water movement from surface soil horizons, whereas deep roots seemed to supply water to the whole cross-section of sapwood. When water flow substantially decreased in shallow lateral roots and the outer stem xylem during drought, water flow in the inner sapwood was maintained, presumably due to its direct connection to deep roots. Results also suggest the importance of the sap flow sensor placement, in relation to sinker roots, as to whether lateral roots might be found to exhibit reverse flow during drought. This study is consistent with the dimorphic rooting habit of Quercus suber trees in which deep roots access groundwater to supply superficial roots and the whole tree, when shallow soil layers were dry

Anthropogenic influence on the 2018 summer warm spell in Europe: the impact of different spatio-temporal scales

We demonstrate that, in attribution studies, events defined over longer time scales generally produce higher probability ratios due to lower interannual variability, reconciling seemingly inconsistent attribution results of Europe’s 2018 summer heatwaves in reported studies

Quantifying human impact on the 2018 summer longest heat wave in South Korea

High-resolution large-ensemble simulations indicate that human activities have at least quadrupled the probability of occurrence of the extremely long-lasting heat waves over South Korea as observed in 2018 summer

Quantifying human impact on the 2018 summer longest heat wave in South Korea

High-resolution large-ensemble simulations indicate that human activities have at least quadrupled the probability of occurrence of the extremely long-lasting heat waves over South Korea as observed in 2018 summer

Event attribution of Parnaíba River floods in Northeastern Brazil

The climate modeling techniques of event attribution enable systematic assessments of the extent that anthropogenic climate change may be altering the probability or magnitude of extreme events. In the consecutive years of 2018, 2019, and 2020, rainfalls caused repeated flooding impacts in the lower Parnaíba River in Northeastern Brazil. We studied the effect that alterations in precipitation resulting from human influences on the climate had on the likelihood of flooding using two ensembles of the HadGEM3-GA6 atmospheric model: one driven by both natural and anthropogenic forcings; and the other driven only by natural atmospheric forcings, with anthropogenic changes removed from sea surface temperatures and sea ice patterns. We performed hydrological modeling to base our assessments on the peak annual streamflow. The change in the likelihood of flooding was expressed in terms of the ratio between probabilities of threshold exceedance estimated for each model ensemble. With uncertainty estimates at the 90% confidence level, the median (5% 95%) probability ratio at the threshold for flooding impacts in the historical period (1982–2013) was 1.12 (0.97 1.26), pointing to a marginal contribution of anthropogenic emissions by about 12%. For the 2018, 2019, and 2020 events, the median (5% 95%) probability ratios at the threshold for flooding impacts were higher at 1.25 (1.07 1.46), 1.27 (1.12 1.445), and 1.37 (1.19 1.59), respectively; indicating that precipitation change driven by anthropogenic emissions has contributed to the increase of likelihood of these events by about 30%. However, there are other intricate hydrometeorological and anthropogenic processes undergoing long-term changes that affect the flood hazard in the lower Parnaíba River. Trend and flood frequency analyses performed on observations showed a nonsignificant long-term reduction of annual peak flow, likely due to decreasing precipitation from natural climate variability and increasing evapotranspiration and flow regulation

Extreme rainfall and its impacts in the Brazilian Minas Gerais state in January 2020: Can we blame climate change?

In January 2020, an extreme precipitation event occurred over southeast Brazil, with the epicentre in Minas Gerais state. Although extreme rainfall frequently occurs in this region during the wet season, this event led to the death of 56 people, drove thousands of residents into homelessness, and incurred millions of Brazilian Reais (BRL) in financial loss through the cascading effects of flooding and landslides. The main question that arises is: To what extent can we blame climate change? With this question in mind, our aim was to assess the socioeconomic impacts of this event and whether and how much of it can be attributed to human-induced climate change. Our findings suggest that human-induced climate change made this event >70% more likely to occur. We estimate that >90,000 people became temporarily homeless, and at least BRL 1.3 billion (USD 240 million) was lost in public and private sectors, of which 41% can be attributed to human-induced climate change. This assessment brings new insights about the necessity and urgency of taking action on climate change, because it is already effectively impacting our society in the southeast Brazil region. Despite its dreadful impacts on society, an event with this magnitude was assessed to be quite common (return period of ∼ 4 years). This calls for immediate improvements on strategic planning focused on mitigation and adaptation. Public management and policies must evolve from the disaster response modus operandi in order to prevent future disasters