On SIR epidemic models with generally distributed infectious periods: number of secondary cases and probability of infection

Recently, Clancy [SIR epidemic models with general infectious period distribution, Statist. Prob. Lett. 85 (2014) 1–5] has shown how SIR epidemics in which individuals’ infection periods are not necessarily exponentially distributed may be modeled in terms of a piecewise-deterministic Markov process (PDMP). In this paper, we present a more detailed description of the underlying PDMP, from which we analyze the population transmission number and the infection probability of a certain susceptible individual

Children in residential care in México:Understanding profiles, trajectories and outcomes

Residential care continues to be the primary child protection measure for children in Mexico given the limited access to family placements and family support programmes. Legislation regulating residential care homes was not enacted until 2014. The first census of children in care was conducted in 2015. Prior to that year, key information such as how many children were placed in residential care, who was caring after them, what kinds of living conditions they faced, and their families histories was not well documented. To date, there remains a lack of reliable information on the number of children in residential care but it is estimated to be approximately 26,000. The lack of oversight has contributed to serious violations of children's rights. This article presents an overview of residential care in Mexico, including profiles of the children, families, and professionals involved. It also outlines the residential care process and various factors involved in decision-making, with special attention to children from minoritized groups. We conclude that residential care in Mexico still presents a myriad of challenges and obstacles to providing comprehensive care for children

Child protection in Mexico:A review of policy, system structure and current challenges

In 2014 Mexico created the General Law for the Protection of Children and Adolescents, which establishes a new organization of the child protection system that legally complies with the requirements of international treaties. Since this change, the focus of attention of policy makers, civil society organizations and society in general has been on child protection. However, not many studies have addressed the Mexican child protection system. This research aims to present the evolution of the system, its structure, remaining gaps and provide suggestions for policy, research, and practice. We conclude that the system is legally well embedded, however, it is necessary to strengthen the institutions with economic resources and trained personnel to carry out adequate practices to implement the system that is legally portrayed. There is a need to update the available information on the situation of children in order to evaluate the system and carry out appropriate research that will serve as a basis for new practices

Аденокарцинома и полипы эндометрия в постменопаузальном возрасте: баланс цитокинов, продукция SFAS-лиганда и противорецидивная терапия

ЦИТОКИНЫЛИГАНДЫАДЕНОКАРЦИНОМАПОСТМЕНОПАУЗ

Las concesiones de infraestructuras de transporte en los países de Centro y Este de Europa: influencia del entorno institucional

La necesidad de incrementar de modo significativo sus niveles de inversión en infraestructuras de transporte, unida a las exigencias en materia de control del déficit presupuestario y de la deuda pública, conducen a los países recientemente incorporados a la Unión Europea a una apuesta por los mecanismos de participación del sector privado, principalmente a través de concesiones. Además, se trata de un planteamiento impulsado por la propia Comisión Europea para todos los países de la Unión Europea. En este artículo se analizan algunos de los principales problemas a los que se enfrentan los países recientemente incorporados a la Unión Europea en su empeño por avanzar en el desarrollo del sistema concesional, que son en buena medida problemas derivados de la complejidad de los proyectos concesionales y de las deficiencias del entorno institucional en estos países. - The need to significantly increase investment levels in transport infrastructures, together with the requirements for control of budgetary deficit and public debt, has led to the backing by countries recently incorporated in the European Union for private sector participation methods, mainly through concessions. This is, in fact, the focus promoted by the European Commission for all EU countries. This article examines some of the main problems affecting the new members of the EU when attempting to develop the concessionary system and which are largely related to the complexity of the concession project itself and the defects in the institutional environment in these countries

Exportación del modelo español de concesiones: el caso de la autopista Moscú-San Petersburgo

La potencialidad del sistema concesional para el desarrollo de las infraestructuras de transporte en muchos de los países emergentes se enfrenta al problema de la falta de una adecuada capacidad institucional para gestionar este tipo de proyectos. Una posible solución a este problema consiste en ayudar a las Administraciones públicas de estos países a mejorar su preparación en este campo. Este artículo analiza el caso del programa de refuerzo institucional llevado a cabo por ICEX, consistente en apoyar al Ministerio de Transportes de la Federación de Rusia en la tarea de licitar el primer tramo de la autopista de peaje Moscú-San Petersburgo

On First-Passage Times and Sojourn Times in Finite QBD Processes and Their Applications in Epidemics

In this paper, we revisit level-dependent quasi-birth-death processes with finitely many possible values of the level and phase variables by complementing the work of Gaver, Jacobs, and Latouche (Adv. Appl. Probab. 1984), where the emphasis is upon obtaining numerical methods for evaluating stationary probabilities and moments of first-passage times to higher and lower levels. We provide a matrix-analytic scheme for numerically computing hitting probabilities, the number of upcrossings, sojourn time analysis, and the random area under the level trajectory. Our algorithmic solution is inspired from Gaussian elimination, which is applicable in all our descriptors since the underlying rate matrices have a block-structured form. Using the results obtained, numerical examples are given in the context of varicella-zoster virus infections

Quantifying the available capacity and resource needs for provision of CAR-T therapies in the National Health Service in Spain: a survey-based study

Leukaemia; Organisation of health services; TherapeuticsLeucemia; Organización de servicios de salud; TerapéuticaLeucèmia; Organització dels serveis sanitaris; TerapèuticaObjectives To estimate the readiness of Spanish National Health Service (NHS) hospitals to provide chimeric antigen receptor T cell (CAR-T), and to identify and quantify the different resources needed to provide CAR-T considering three scenarios defined by 10, 25 and 50 patients per centre per year. Design Targeted literature review and quantitative study using a questionnaire and telephone interviews. An algorithm was created to determine hospitals’ readiness based on their capacity and capability. All the requirements for quantification were assessed and validated by the steering committee, formed by members of the Spanish Group of Haematopoietic Transplantation and Cell Therapy. A weighting system (from 0 to 1) was established for capability quantification. For resources quantification, a scoring system was established, with 0 points representing the minimum and 3 points the maximum of additional resources that a hospital indicated necessary. Setting 40 Spanish hospital centres that perform allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation were invited to complete the questionnaire for capacity quantification, 28 of which provided valid responses. Nine hospitals participated in the interviews for resource quantification, eight of which had previously been designated by the Ministry of Health (MoH) to provide CAR-T. Outcome measure Current capacity of NHS Spanish sites to administer CAR-T under different theoretical scenarios with varying numbers of procedures, and the potential healthcare resources that would be needed to realise the theoretical capacity requirements. Results Four hospitals were optimally ready, 17 were somewhat ready and 7 were not ready. The actual extrapolated capacity of the currently designated MoH CAR-T sites would allow treatment of approximately 250 patients per year. Regarding healthcare resource needs, the numbers of haematologists, nurses and beds were the most important limiting factors, and those requiring further growth as patient numbers increased. Conclusions Increasing the number of CAR-T-qualified centres and/or increasing resources in the current designated sites are two potential strategies that should be considered to treat CAR-T-eligible patients in Spain.This study was conducted with a grant from GETH-TC (grant number: N/A)

Efecto de las heladas sobre la capacidad germinativa de bellotas de encina

Un aspecto clave para lograr la regeneración de dehesas y montes bajos, los sistemas más extensos de aprovechamiento de la encina en España, son las características fisiológicas de la bellota. Se analizó la capacidad germinativa de bellotas procedentes de 15 encinas (familias) en dehesa y 15 familias en monte bajo de la misma finca, tras someterlas en laboratorio a heladas de distinta intensidad (-3ºC, -6ºC, -9ºC, -12ºC, -15ºC). Las bellotas procedentes de dehesa tuvieron una capacidad germinativa menor y con mayor variabilidad entre familias, aunque heladas incluso moderadas (-6ºC) afectaron en mayor medida a la germinación de las bellotas de montes bajos, si bien la reducción fue ya generalizada (60% en todas las familias); tras la exposición a -12ºC o inferior, la germinación fue residual en todos los casos. Se concluye que bajas temperaturas son un factor limitante para la regeneración de la encina en el interior de la península Ibérica

Autoantibodies to complement components in C3 glomerulopathy and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome.

The alternative pathway of complement is implicated in the pathogenesis of several renal diseases, such as atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome, dense deposit disease and other forms of C3 glomerulopathy. The underlying complement defects include genetic and/or acquired factors, the latter in the form of autoantibodies. Because the autoimmune forms require a specific treatment, in part different from that of the genetic forms, it is important to detect the autoantibodies as soon as possible and understand their characteristics. In this overview, we summarize the types of anti-complement autoantibodies detected in such diseases, i.e. autoantibodies to factor H, factor I, C3b, factor B and those against the C3 convertases (C3 nephritic factor and C4 nephritic factor). We draw attention to newly described autoantibodies and their characteristics, and highlight similarities and differences in the autoimmune forms of these diseases