Simulations of star formation in Ophiuchus

The way in which stars form from the interstellar medium is poorly understood. In this thesis we investiage the process star formation in molecular clouds via core fragmentation using Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH). The initial conditions of the simulations are informed as closely as possible by observations of Ophiuchus. We run large ensebles of individual core simulations and compare the collective results with observations of stars and brown dwarfs. We use observations of Ophiuchus by Motte et al. (1998) and Andre et al. (2007) to calibrate a lognormal distribution from which we draw correlated masses, sizes and velocity dispersions. We assume that the cores are intrinsically triaxial. The distribution of core shapes is then inferred by fitting a single parameter family of ellipsoidal shapes to the observed core aspect ratios. Each core is given the density profile of a critical Bonnor-Ebert sphere and a turbulent velocity field which is modified to include ordered rotation and radial excursions. We evolve one hundred of the model prestellar cores using the Seren SPH code (Hubber et al., 2011). The simulations are repeated with continuous accretion heating, no accretion heating and episodic accretion heating (Stamatellos et al., 2012). We find that simulations with episodic accretion heating can reproduce the general features of the Chabrier (2005) initial mass function. This includs the ratio of stars to brown dwarfs and the turn-over at 0:2M�. We demonstrate that the mass of a star is not related to the mass of the prestellar core in which it formed. Low mass cores with Mcore � 0:1M� tend to collapse into single objects whereas higher mass cores with Mcore & 1M� can fragment into tens of objects. We finally show that the multiplicy statistics of the protostars formed in these simulations are well matched by observations. Multiplicity frequencies are higher than those of field stars and we note the presence of long-lived quadruple, quintuple and sextuple systems

Land-based measures to mitigate climate change : potential and feasibility by country

Acknowledgements The design of this study and the data generated was guided by expert consultations and relied on the help of many. We thank all those who contributed: Sierra Gladfelter, Jo House, Mercedes Bustamante, Susan Cook-Patton, Sara Leavitt, Nick Wolff, and Thomas Worthington. We thank M.-J. Valentino at Imaginary Office for helping to design the first three figures. This work was supported by the authors’ institutions and funding sources, including the Climate and Land-use Alliance, the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature Management and Food Quality, and the EU H2020 projects VERIFY and ENGAGE (grant agreement no. 821471).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Forming isolated brown dwarfs by turbulent fragmentation

We use Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics to explore the circumstances under which an isolated very low mass pre-stellar core can be formed by colliding turbulent flows and collapse to form a brown dwarf. Our simulations suggest that the flows need not be very fast, but do need to be very strongly convergent, i.e. the gas must flow in at comparable speeds from all sides, which seems rather unlikely. We therefore revisit the object Oph-B11, which André et al. have identified as a pre-stellar core with mass between ∼0.020 M⊙ and ∼0.030 M⊙. We re-analyse the observations using a Markov-chain Monte Carlo method that allows us (i) to include the uncertainties on the distance, temperature and dust mass opacity, and (ii) to consider different Bayesian prior distributions of the mass. We estimate that the posterior probability that Oph-B11 has a mass below the hydrogen-burning limit at ∼0.075 M⊙, is between 0.66 and 0.86 . We conclude that, if Oph-B11 is destined to collapse, it probably will form a brown dwarf. However, the flows required to trigger this appear to be so contrived that it is difficult to envisage this being the only way, or even a major way, of forming isolated brown dwarfs. Moreover, Oph-B11 could easily be a transient, bouncing, prolate core, seen end-on; there could, indeed should, be many such objects masquerading as very low mass pre-stellar cores

Land-based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country

Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing "bottom-up" sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level. Cost-effective (available up to $100/tCO2 eq) land-based mitigation is 8-13.8 GtCO2 eq yr-1 between 2020 and 2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost-effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5°C pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost-effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost-effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture, and 15% from demand-side measures. The potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75-4.8 GtCO2eq yr-1 ) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Protection of forests and other ecosystems and demand-side measures present particularly high mitigation efficiency, high provision of co-benefits, and relatively lower costs. The feasibility assessment suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio-cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land-based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near-term, low-cost mitigation while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land-based measures available, their potential co-benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Enhanced investments and country-specific plans that accommodate this complexity are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship

Reproducibility Project: Cancer Biology

The Reproducibility Project: Cancer Biology was an initiative to independently replicate selected experiments from a number of high-profile papers in the field of cancer biology. In the end 50 experiments from 23 papers were repeated. The final two outputs from the project recount in detail the challenges the project team encountered while repeating these experiments ('Challenges for assessing replicability in preclinical cancer biology': https://elifesciences.org/articles/67995), and report the results of a meta-analysis that combined the results from all the experiments ('Investigating the replicability of preclinical cancer biology': https://elifesciences.org/articles/71601). The project was a collaboration between the Center for Open Science and Science Exchange with all papers published by eLife

Outcomes in Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation and History of Acute Coronary Syndromes: Insights from GARFIELD-AF

BACKGROUND: Many patients with atrial fibrillation have concomitant coronary artery disease with or without acute coronary syndromes and are in need of additional antithrombotic therapy. There are few data on the long-term clinical outcome of atrial fibrillation patients with a history of acute coronary syndrome. This is a 2-year study of atrial fibrillation patients with or without a history of acute coronary syndromes