Comparing and combining process-based crop models and statistical models with some implications for climate change

We compare predictions of a simple process-based crop model (Soltani and Sinclair 2012), a simple statistical model (Schlenker and Roberts 2009), and a combination of both models to actual maize yields on a large, representative sample of farmer-managed fields in the Corn Belt region of the United States. After statistical post-model calibration, the process model (Simple Simulation Model, or SSM) predicts actual outcomes slightly better than the statistical model, but the combined model performs significantly better than either model. The SSM, statistical model and combined model all show similar relationships with precipitation, while the SSM better accounts for temporal patterns of precipitation, vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation. The statistical and combined models show a more negative impact associated with extreme heat for which the process model does not account. Due to the extreme heat effect, predicted impacts under uniform climate change scenarios are considerably more severe for the statistical and combined models than for the process-based model

The MAHB, the Culture Gap, and Some Really Inconvenient Truths

Humanity's failure to take adequate actions to stem a likely environmental collapse calls for extraordinary measures to understand and alter human behavior, argues Paul Ehrlich. His Millennium Assessment of Human Behavior (MAHB) aims to chart the path to a sustainable future

Transcriptome pathways unique to dehydration tolerant relatives of modern wheat

Among abiotic stressors, drought is a major factor responsible for dramatic yield loss in agriculture. In order to reveal differences in global expression profiles of drought tolerant and sensitive wild emmer wheat genotypes, a previously deployed shock-like dehydration process was utilized to compare transcriptomes at two time points in root and leaf tissues using the Affymetrix GeneChip(R) Wheat Genome Array hybridization. The comparison of transcriptomes reveal several unique genes or expression patterns such as differential usage of IP(3)-dependent signal transduction pathways, ethylene- and abscisic acid (ABA)-dependent signaling, and preferential or faster induction of ABA-dependent transcription factors by the tolerant genotype that distinguish contrasting genotypes indicative of distinctive stress response pathways. The data also show that wild emmer wheat is capable of engaging known drought stress responsive mechanisms. The global comparison of transcriptomes in the absence of and after dehydration underlined the gene networks especially in root tissues that may have been lost in the selection processes generating modern bread wheats

Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are the workhorse of assessments of the agricultural impacts of climate change. Yet the changes in crop yields projected by different models in response to the same meteorological forcing can differ substantially. Through an inter-method comparison, we provide a first glimpse into the origins and implications of this divergence—both among GGCMs and between GGCMs and historical observations. We examine yields of rainfed maize, wheat, and soybeans simulated by six GGCMs as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project-Fast Track (ISIMIP-FT) exercise, comparing 1981-2004 hindcast yields over the coterminous United States (U.S.) against U.S. Dept. of Agriculture (USDA) time series for about 1,000 counties. Leveraging the empirical climate change impacts literature, we estimate reduced-form econometric models of crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation exposures for both GGCMs and observations. We find that up to 60% of the variance in both simulated and observed yields is attributable to weather variation. Majority of the GGCMs have difficulty reproducing the observed distribution of percentage yield anomalies, and exhibit aggregate responses that show yields to be more weather-sensitive than in the observational record over the predominant range of temperature and precipitation conditions. This disparity is largely attributable to heterogeneity in GGCMs’ responses, as opposed to uncertainty in historical weather forcings, and is responsible for widely divergent impacts of climate on future crop yields

Louis I. Kahn and Richard Kelly: collaborative design in creation of the luminous environment

As one of the most prominent architects of the twentieth century, Louis I. Kahn aspired to use natural light to shape his architecture. The lighting designer Richard Kelly, one of his close collaborators, had significant influence on modern architectural lighting design in the twentieth century. Kahn and Kelly designed the luminous environments in three art-gallery and museum buildings, The Yale University Art Gallery, the Kimbell Art Museum and the Yale Center for British Art. Collaboration between the architect and the lighting designer resulted in well-resolved lighting solutions. This research investigated the collaboration between Louis I. Kahn and Richard Kelly from both theoretical and pragmatic perspectives. In terms of the theoretical perspective, a detailed overview of their collaborative work is provided through literature review. In terms of the pragmatic perspective, the background of their cooperation and the technical details are presented. In addition, daylighting performance analysis of these three buildings through digital modelling was undertaken. This study found that the lighting design solutions produced together by Louis I. Kahn and Richard Kelly, especially the way of using daylight, have had significant impact on architectural space and the luminous environment. More importantly, this kind of collaborative working method could provide a useful reference and guidance for contemporary architecture and lighting design

Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and Gross Domestic Product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose; the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool, and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water

Future scenarios for oil palm mortality and infection by Phytophthora palmivora in Colombia, Ecuador and Brazil, extrapolated to Malaysia and Indonesia

Palm oil is a very important commodity especially to Malaysia and Indonesia. However, Latin American countries have significant industries, particularly Colombia. Climate change (CC) is a highly probable phenomenon which will affect diseases of oil palm (OP) with Phytophthora palmivora causing devastating outbreaks in Latin America and especially Colombia. Furthermore, the oomycete is an endemic pathogen to other crops in Malaysia such as durian, and is capable of causing disease of OP in vitro. A similar disease has been recorded in Thailand. It is crucial that P. palmivora is controlled in Malaysia and Indonesia because the organism is highly virulent, although there are acute and chronic forms. This current paper investigates the effect of CC on P. palmivora disease and on OP survival via a CLIMEX model for future suitable growth of OP. Postulated schemes are provided for Malaysia and Indonesia for acute and chronic forms of the disease which indicate an extremely high and increasing threat, likely to reduce the sustainability of the OP industry by 2050 and further by 2070 and/or 2100. Brazil appears less threatened by the disease under these scenarios, but their OP is likely to have 100% mortality. The chronic and acute forms of the malady present reduced and high threats respectively to Malaysia and Indonesia. The data herein will be useful for, inter alia, plantation managers who will be able to assess the accuracy of these scenarios in the future. Amelioration methods are required urgently and quarantine procedures need strengthening.(undefined)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Avaliação da relação seca/produtividade agrícola em cenário de mudanças climáticas.

As mudanças climáticas alertam para um possível aumento de eventos meteorológicos extremos em todo o mundo, sendo crescente a preocupação de como o clima pode mudar o ambiente e afetar a produção das culturas agrícolas. Este estudo investiga a relação entre a produtividade agrícola e a seca em algumas mesorregiões do estado de Minas Gerais, em cenários de mudanças climáticas. Foram utilizados dados meteorológicos diários projetados pelo modelo ECHAM5/MPI-OM, para o período de 2008 a 2020 para o cenário A1B. Utilizou-se a metodologia da zona agroecológica (AEZ) para estimar a produtividade futura do milho. Empregou-se o índice de seca Z de Palmer em um modelo de regressão linear com a produtividade do milho estimada pela metodologia da AEZ. O desempenho dos modelos foi verificado por meio das estatísticas: coeficiente de determinação (r2), raiz do erro quadrático médio(RMSE), erro absoluto médio (MAE) e índice de concordância de Willmott (d). Os resultados do índice de concordância de Willmott variaram entre 0,48 e 0,90, e os valores de r2 foram pouco expressivos.Contudo, a produtividade estimada pela metodologia AEZ projetou maiores perdas na produtividade do milho devido a limitações por água para os anos agrícolas de 2008/2009, 2009/2010, 2014/2015,2018/2019 para as mesorregiões Triângulo/Alto Paranaíba, Central Mineira e Jequitinhonha

Longitudinal trends of future climate change and oil palm growth: empirical evidence for tropical Africa

Palms are highly significant tropical plants. Oil palms produce palm oil, the basic commodity of a highly important industry. Climate change from greenhouse gasses is likely to decrease the ability of palms to survive, irrespective of them providing ecosystem services to communities. Little information about species survival in tropical regions under climate change is available and data on species migration under climate change is important. Palms are particularly significant in Africa: a palm oil industry already exists with Nigeria being the largest producer. Previous work using CLIMEX modelling indicated that Africa will have reduced suitable climate for oil palm in Africa. The current paper employs this modelling to assess how suitable climate for growing oil palm changed in Africa from current time to 2100. An increasing trend in suitable climate from west to east was observed indicating that refuges could be obtained along the African tropical belt. Most countries had reduced suitable climates but others had increased, with Uganda being particularly high. There may be a case for developing future oil palm plantations towards the east of Africa. The information may be usefully applied to other palms. However, it is crucial that any developments will fully adhere to environmental regulations. Future climate change will have severe consequences to oil palm cultivation but there may be scope for eastwards mitigation in Africa.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio