Estimation of kinetic parameters in a chromatographic separation model via Bayesian inference

A modelagem de processos de adsorção tem sido empregada com frequência nas indústrias químicas, petroquímicas e refinarias, por exemplo para separação e purificação de misturas em unidade de Leito Móvel Simulado (LMS). Na representação matemática do modelo, a determinação de parâmetros é um passo importante para o projeto de condições cromatográficas para a separação contínua, em processos do tipo LMS. Este trabalho tem por objetivo a análise de estimativa de parâmetros em processos de adsorção, usando um sistema cromatográfico com uma coluna, para a separação das substâncias Glicose e Frutose. Investiga-se o uso da abordagem Bayesiana, através de métodos de Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov (MCMC), assim como o uso da abordagem da máxima verossimilhança, utilizando duas técnicas estocásticas diferentes, o Algoritmo de Colisão de Partículas (PCA - Particle Collision Algorithm), e o Algoritmo de Otimização por Enxame de Partículas (PSO - Particle Swarm Optimization) para executar a tarefa de minimização da função objetivo. Diferentes casos são apresentados com o objetivo de analisar a significância estatística das estimativas obtidas para os parâmetros, fazendo-se uma comparação crítica entre a solução via inferência Bayesiana e via minimização da função objetivo com métodos estocásticos. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que o uso da abordagem Bayesiana fornece uma proposta vantajosa para a estimativa de parâmetros em transferência de massa, oferecendo resultados com maior riqueza de informação estatística.The modeling of adsorption processes appears quite frequently in the chemical industry, petrochemical plants and refineries, for example for separation and purification of mixtures in Simulated Moving Bed (SMB) units. In the mathematical formulation, the accurate determination of the model parameters is an important step for the design of chromatographic conditions for continuous separation in SMB processes. This work is aimed at the estimation of the model parameters in adsorption processes, using a chromatographic column for the separation of glucose and fructose. The Bayesian framework for inverse problems is investigated through the implementation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC) and a critical comparison against the classical Maximum Likelihood approach, with the minimization of the objective function via two different stochastic techniques, namely the Particle Collision Algorithm (PCA), and the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is performed. Different cases are presented in order to investigate the statistical significance of the estimates obtained, and perform comparisons between the solution via Bayesian inference and via the minimization of the objective function with the stochastic methods. The results demonstrate that the Bayesian approach employs less computational effort to achieve estimates with comparable statistical information.Peer Reviewe

Modifiable risk factors associated with prediabetes in men and women: A cross-sectional analysis of the cohort study in primary health care on the evolution of patients with prediabetes

Background: Prediabetes is a high-risk state for diabetes development, but little is known about the factors associated with this state. The aim of the study was to identify modifiable risk factors associated with the presence of prediabetes in men and women. Methods: Cohort Study in Primary Health Care on the Evolution of Patients with Prediabetes (PREDAPS-Study) is a prospective study on a cohort of 1184 subjects with prediabetes and another cohort of 838 subjects without glucose metabolism disorders. It is being conducted by 125 general practitioners in Spain. Data for this analysis were collected during the baseline stage in 2012. The modifiable risk factors included were: smoking habit, alcohol consumption, low physical activity, inadequate diet, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and obesity. To assess independent association between each factor and prediabetes, odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using logistic regression models. Results: Abdominal obesity, low plasma levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-cholesterol), and hypertension were independently associated with the presence of prediabetes in both men and women. After adjusting for all factors, the respective ORs (95% Confidence Intervals) were 1.98 (1.41-2.79), 1.88 (1.23-2.88) and 1.86 (1.39-2.51) for men, and 1.89 (1.36-2.62), 1.58 (1.12-2.23) and 1.44 (1.07-1.92) for women. Also, general obesity was a risk factor in both sexes but did not reach statistical significance among men, after adjusting for all factors. Risky alcohol consumption was a risk factor for prediabetes in men, OR 1.49 (1.00-2.24). Conclusions: Obesity, low HDL-cholesterol levels, and hypertension were modifiable risk factors independently related to the presence of prediabetes in both sexes. The magnitudes of the associations were stronger for men than women. Abdominal obesity in both men and women displayed the strongest association with prediabetes. The findings suggest that there are some differences between men and women, which should be taken into account when implementing specific recommendations to prevent or delay the onset of diabetes in adult population

An Unsupervised Approach to Leak Detection and Location in Water Distribution Networks

The water loss detection and location problem has received great attention in recent years. In particular, data-driven methods have shown very promising results mainly because they can deal with uncertain data and the variability of models better than model-based methods. The main contribution of this work is an unsupervised approach to leak detection and location in water distribution networks. This approach is based on a zone division of the network, and it only requires data from a normal operation scenario of the pipe network. The proposition combines a periodic transformation and a data vector extension together with principal component analysis of leak detection. A reconstruction-based contribution index is used for determining the leak zone location. The Hanoi distribution network is employed as the case study for illustrating the feasibility of the proposal. Single leaks are emulated with varying outflow magnitudes at all nodes that represent less than 2.5% of the total demand of the network and between 3% and 25% of the node’s demand. All leaks can be detected within the time interval of a day, and the average classification rate obtained is 85.28% by using only data from three pressure sensors

Estimation of kinetic parameters in a chromatographic separation model via Bayesian inference

The modeling of adsorption processes appears quite frequently in the chemical industry, petrochemical plants and refineries, for example for separation and purification of mixtures in Simulated Moving Bed (SMB) units. In the mathematical formulation, the accurate determination of the model parameters is an important step for the design of chromatographic conditions for continuous separation in SMB processes. This work is aimed at the estimation of the model parameters in adsorption processes, using a chromatographic column for the separation of glucose and fructose. The Bayesian framework for inverse problems is investigated through the implementation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC) and a critical comparison against the classical Maximum Likelihood approach, with the minimization of the objective function via two different stochastic techniques, namely the Particle Collision Algorithm (PCA), and the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is performed. Different cases are presented in order to investigate the statistical significance of the estimates obtained, and perform comparisons between the solution via Bayesian inference and via the minimization of the objective function with the stochastic methods. The results demonstrate that the Bayesian approach employs less computational effort to achieve estimates with comparable statistical information