Fast Approximation of the Shapley Values Based on Order-of-Addition Experimental Designs

Shapley value is originally a concept in econometrics to fairly distribute both gains and costs to players in a coalition game. In the recent decades, its application has been extended to other areas such as marketing, engineering and machine learning. For example, it produces reasonable solutions for problems in sensitivity analysis, local model explanation towards the interpretable machine learning, node importance in social network, attribution models, etc. However, its heavy computational burden has been long recognized but rarely investigated. Specifically, in a $d$-player coalition game, calculating a Shapley value requires the evaluation of $d!$ or $2^d$ marginal contribution values, depending on whether we are taking the permutation or combination formulation of the Shapley value. Hence it becomes infeasible to calculate the Shapley value when $d$ is reasonably large. A common remedy is to take a random sample of the permutations to surrogate for the complete list of permutations. We find an advanced sampling scheme can be designed to yield much more accurate estimation of the Shapley value than the simple random sampling (SRS). Our sampling scheme is based on combinatorial structures in the field of design of experiments (DOE), particularly the order-of-addition experimental designs for the study of how the orderings of components would affect the output. We show that the obtained estimates are unbiased, and can sometimes deterministically recover the original Shapley value. Both theoretical and simulations results show that our DOE-based sampling scheme outperforms SRS in terms of estimation accuracy. Surprisingly, it is also slightly faster than SRS. Lastly, real data analysis is conducted for the C. elegans nervous system and the 9/11 terrorist network

Genome cloning and genetic diversity of Apple chlorotic leaf spot virus

514-519Apple chlorotic leaf spot virus (ACLSV) with a wide distribution and variability is great threat to apple yield and quality. The systematic research on the occurrence, genetic structure and evolutionary mechanism is important for the prevention of ACLSV. In this study, 360 apple leaf samples were collected from Shanxi province and tested by RT-PCR, and the result showed that the incidence of ACLSV in Shanxi was ranged from 43.59% in Linfen to 68.18% in Wanrong. One new ACLSV isolate (shanxi14-MK368727) was collected from the positive samples, of which the genome (including the 5' and 3' ends) was 7507 bp and encoded 2536 amino acids. Compared with online database, the highest nd identity was between shanxi14 and KJ522693.1, and the lowest was shanxi14 and M58152.1. Phylogenetic analyzed based on genome showed that 25 isolated of ACLSV were divided two groups (Group I and II), which showed that was no significant correlation with geographic location. The selection pressures of POL, MP and CP were tested, the result proved the three genes were under negative selection pressure. The knowledge presented in this study will be useful in for the design of long-term, sustainable management strategies for controlling these viruses

Pengaruh Harga Terhadap Peningkatan Penjualan Produk Semen Tiga Roda Pada PT. Robcaga Beo Kabupaten Kepulauan Talaud

The development in business world these days is market by the competition between the business company is getting fierce. Especially in managing the company business unit. It is shown by the appearance of a company that offer a good quality product with a compete price on the market. To handle the fierce competition on the market then one from so many effort that the company do is by apply the strategic price. Which on the way of applying that strategi the company try to set a price that can be compete in the market so the increase sale of the product become maximum. With right price and controlled will result the domino effect to a company to build long term relationship with costumer so it can increase the sales volume. This research is a descriptive quantitative research by using the correlation approach and simple regression. To see relation between variable and to measure the impact to the variable itself. So the purpose of this research is to know how far the price effect and to the increase of PT. ROBCAGA in Talaud. According to the sesult of the research, can be shown as following: price has a correlation and significant determination effort to the increase sale of PT. ROBCAGA Talaud. According to the data analysis, coefficient value moment r = 0,685. That show there is a positive relation, and can be categorize as high and strong, also price coefficient determination to the increase sale is by 46,5% and 53,5% by the rest of it depends on the unknown factors that not been analyze in this research

Psychological well-being in Europe after the outbreak of war in Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has had devastating effects on the Ukrainian population and the global economy, environment, and political order. However, little is known about the psychological states surrounding the outbreak of war, particularly the mental well-being of individuals outside Ukraine. Here, we present a longitudinal experience-sampling study of a convenience sample from 17 European countries (total participants = 1,341, total assessments = 44,894, countries with >100 participants = 5) that allows us to track well-being levels across countries during the weeks surrounding the outbreak of war. Our data show a significant decline in well-being on the day of the Russian invasion. Recovery over the following weeks was associated with an individual’s personality but was not statistically significantly associated with their age, gender, subjective social status, and political orientation. In general, well-being was lower on days when the war was more salient on social media. Our results demonstrate the need to consider the psychological implications of the Russo-Ukrainian war next to its humanitarian, economic, and ecological consequences

Fundamental social motives measured across forty-two cultures in two waves

How does psychology vary across human societies? The fundamental social motives framework adopts an evolutionary approach to capture the broad range of human social goals within a taxonomy of ancestrally recurring threats and opportunities. These motives—self-protection, disease avoidance, affiliation, status, mate acquisition, mate retention, and kin care—are high in fitness relevance and everyday salience, yet understudied cross-culturally. Here, we gathered data on these motives in 42 countries (N = 15,915) in two cross-sectional waves, including 19 countries (N = 10,907) for which datawere gathered in both waves. Wave 1 was collected from mid-2016 through late 2019 (32 countries, N = 8,998; 3,302 male, 5,585 female; Mage = 24.43, SD = 7.91). Wave 2 was collected from April through November 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic (29 countries, N = 6,917; 2,249 male, 4,218 female; Mage = 28.59, SD = 11.31). These data can be used to assess differences and similarities in people’s fundamental social motives both across and within cultures, at different time points, and in relation to other commonly studied cultural indicators and outcomes

Deep learning method for makeup style transfer: A survey

Makeup transfer is one of the applications of image style transfer, which refers to transfer the reference makeup to the face without makeup, and maintaining the original appearance of the plain face and the makeup style of the reference face. In order to understand the research status of makeup transfer, this paper systematically sorts out makeup transfer technology. According to the development process of the method of makeup transfer, our paper first introduces and analyzes the traditional methods of makeup transfer. In particular, the methods of makeup transfer based on deep learning framework are summarized, covering both disadvantages and advantages. Finally, some key points in the current challenges and future development direction of makeup transfer technology are discussed

An increased risk of pulmonary hypertension in patients with combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema: a meta-analysis

Abstract Background and aim Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a common complication of combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE). Whether the incidence of PH is increased in CPFE compared with pure pulmonary fibrosis or emphysema remains unclear. This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the risk of PH in patients with CPFE compared to those with IPF or COPD/emphysema. Methods We searched the PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and CNKI databases for relevant studies focusing on the incidence of PH in patients with CPFE and IPF or emphysema. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and standard mean differences (SMD) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were used to evaluate the differences in the clinical characteristics presence and severity of PH between patients with CPFE, IPF, or emphysema. The survival impact of PH in patients with CPFE was assessed using hazard ratios (HRs). Results A total of 13 eligible studies were included in the meta-analysis, involving 560, 720, and 316 patients with CPFE, IPF, and emphysema, respectively. Patients with CPFE had an increased PH risk with a higher frequency of pulmonary hypertension and higher estimated systolic pulmonary artery pressure (esPAP), compared with those with IPF (OR: 2.66; 95% CI: 1.55-4.57; P < 0.01; SMD: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.52-1.19; P < 0.01) or emphysema (OR: 3.19; 95% CI: 1.42-7.14; P < 0.01; SMD: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.50-0.96; P < 0.01). In addition, the patients with CPFE combined with PH had a poor prognosis than patients with CPFE without PH (HR: 6.16; 95% CI: 2.53–15.03; P < 0.01). Conclusions Our meta-analysis showed that patients with CPFE were associated with a significantly higher risk of PH compared with those with IPF or emphysema alone. The presence of PH was a poor predictor of mortality