Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti infestation in major European cities by 2100

Background Climate change allows Aedes aegypti to infest new areas. Consequently, it enables the arboviruses the mosquito transmits ­- e.g., dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever -- to emerge in previously uninfected areas. An example is the Portuguese island of Madeira during 2012-13. Objective We aim to understand how climate change will affect the future spread of this potent vector, as an aid in assessing the risk of disease outbreaks and effectively allocating resources for vector control. Methods We used an empirically-informed, process-based mathematical model to study the feasibility of Aedes aegypti infestation into continental Europe. Based on established global climate-change scenario data, we assess the potential of Aedes aegypti to establish in Europe over the 21st century by estimating the vector population growth rate for five climate models (GCM5). Results In a low carbon emission future (RCP2.6), we find minimal change to the current situation throughout the whole of the 21st century. In a high carbon future (RCP8.5), a large parts of southern Europe risks being invaded by Aedes aegypti. Conclusion Our results show that successfully enforcing the Paris Agreement by limiting global warming to below 2 °C significantly lowers the risk for infestation of Aedes aegypti and consequently of potential large-scale arboviral disease outbreaks in Europe within the 21st century

Assessment of optimal strategies in a two-patch dengue transmission model with seasonality

Emerging and re-emerging dengue fever has posed serious problems to public health officials in many tropical and subtropical countries. Continuous traveling in seasonally varying areas makes it more difficult to control the spread of dengue fever. In this work, we consider a two-patch dengue model that can capture the movement of host individuals between and within patches using a residence-time matrix. A previous two-patch dengue model without seasonality is extended by adding host demographics and seasonal forcing in the transmission rates. We investigate the effects of human movement and seasonality on the two-patch dengue transmission dynamics. Motivated by the recent Peruvian dengue data in jungle/rural areas and coast/urban areas, our model mimics the seasonal patterns of dengue outbreaks in two patches. The roles of seasonality and residence-time configurations are highlighted in terms of the seasonal reproduction number and cumulative incidence. Moreover, optimal control theory is employed to identify and evaluate patch-specific control measures aimed at reducing dengue prevalence in the presence of seasonality. Our findings demonstrate that optimal patch-specific control strategies are sensitive to seasonality and residence-time scenarios. Targeting only the jungle (or endemic) is as effective as controlling both patches under weak coupling or symmetric mobility. However, focusing on intervention for the city (or high density areas) turns out to be optimal when two patches are strongly coupled with asymmetric mobility.ope

Urine/Plasma Neutrophil Gelatinase Associated Lipocalin Ratio Is a Sensitive and Specific Marker of Subclinical Acute Kidney Injury in Mice

Background Detection of acute kidney injury (AKI) is still a challenge if conventional markers of kidney function are within reference range. We studied the sensitivity and specificity of NGAL as an AKI marker at different degrees of renal ischemia. Methods Male C57BL/6J mice were subjected to 10-, 20- or 30-min unilateral renal ischemia, to control operation or no operation, and AKI was evaluated 1 day later by histology, immunohistochemistry, BUN, creatinine, NGAL (plasma and urine) and renal NGAL mRNA expression. Results A short (10-min) ischemia did not alter BUN or kidney histology, but elevated plasma and urinary NGAL level and renal NGAL mRNA expression although to a much smaller extent than longer ischemia. Surprisingly, control operation elevated plasma NGAL and renal NGAL mRNA expression to a similar extent as 10-min ischemia. Further, the ratio of urine to plasma NGAL was the best parameter to differentiate a 10-min ischemic injury from control operation, while it was similar in the non and control-operated groups. Conclusions These results suggest that urinary NGAL excretion and especially ratio of urine to plasma NGAL are sensitive and specific markers of subclinical acute kidney injury in mice

The enigma of in vivo oxidative stress assessment: isoprostanes as an emerging target

Oxidative stress is believed to be one of the major factors behind several acute and chronic diseases, and may also be associated with ageing. Excess formation of free radicals in miscellaneous body environment may originate from endogenous response to cell injury, but also from exposure to a number of exogenous toxins. When the antioxidant defence system is overwhelmed, this leads to cell damage. However, the measurement of free radicals or their endproducts is tricky, since these compounds are reactive and short lived, and have diverse characteristics. Specific evidence for the involvement of free radicals in pathological situations has been difficult to obtain, partly owing to shortcomings in earlier described methods for the measurement of oxidative stress. Isoprostanes, which are prostaglandin-like bioactive compounds synthesized in vivo from oxidation of arachidonic acid, independently of cyclooxygenases, are involved in many human diseases, and their measurement therefore offers a way to assess oxidative stress. Elevated levels of F2-isoprostanes have also been seen in the normal human pregnancy, but their physiological role has not yet been defined. Large amounts of bioactive F2-isoprostanes are excreted in the urine in normal basal situations, with a wide interindividual variation. Their exact role in the regulation of normal physiological functions, however, needs to be explored further. Current understanding suggests that measurement of F2-isoprostanes in body fluids provides a reliable analytical tool to study oxidative stress-related diseases and experimental inflammatory conditions, and also in the evaluation of various dietary antioxidants, as well as drugs with radical-scavenging properties. However, assessment of isoprostanes in plasma or urine does not necessarily reflect any specific tissue damage, nor does it provide information on the oxidation of lipids other than arachidonic acid

A combination of climatic conditions determines major within-season dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China

Background: China’s Guangdong Province experienced a major dengue outbreak in 2014. Here we investigate if the weather conditions contributing to the outbreak can be elucidated by multi-scale models. Methods: A multi-scale modelling framework, parameterized by available weather, vector and human case data, was used to examine the integrative effect of temperature and precipitation variation on the effective reproduction number (ERN) of dengue fever. Results: With temperature in the range of 25–30 °C, increasing precipitation leads to an increase in the ERN with an average lag of 10 days. With monthly precipitation fixed, the more regular the pattern of rainfall (i.e. higher numbers of rainy days), the larger is the total number of adult mosquitoes. A rainfall distribution peaking in June and July produces a large ERN, beneficial to transmission. Climate conditions conducive to major outbreaks within a season are a combination of relatively high temperature, high precipitation peaking in June and July, and uninterrupted drizzle or regular rainfall. Conclusions: Evaluating a set of weather conditions favourable to a future major dengue outbreak requires near-future prediction of temperature variation, total rainfall and its peaking times. Such information permits seasonal rapid response management decisions due to the lags between the precipitation events and the realisation of the ERN

Quantifying the effects of temperature on mosquito and parasite traits that determine the transmission potential of human malaria

Malaria transmission is known to be strongly impacted by temperature. The current understanding of how temperature affects mosquito and parasite life history traits derives from a limited number of empirical studies. These studies, some dating back to the early part of last century, are often poorly controlled, have limited replication, explore a narrow range of temperatures, and use a mixture of parasite and mosquito species. Here, we use a single pairing of the Asian mosquito vector, An. stephensi and the human malaria parasite, P. falciparum to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the thermal performance curves of a range of mosquito and parasite traits relevant to transmission. We show that biting rate, adult mortality rate, parasite development rate, and vector competence are temperature sensitive. Importantly, we find qualitative and quantitative differences to the assumed temperature-dependent relationships. To explore the overall implications of temperature for transmission, we first use a standard model of relative vectorial capacity. This approach suggests a temperature optimum for transmission of 29°C, with minimum and maximum temperatures of 12°C and 38°C, respectively. However, the robustness of the vectorial capacity approach is challenged by the fact that the empirical data violate several of the model's simplifying assumptions. Accordingly, we present an alternative model of relative force of infection that better captures the observed biology of the vector-parasite interaction. This model suggests a temperature optimum for transmission of 26°C, with a minimum and maximum of 17°C and 35°C, respectively. The differences between the models lead to potentially divergent predictions for the potential impacts of current and future climate change on malaria transmission. The study provides a framework for more detailed, system-specific studies that are essential to develop an improved understanding on the effects of temperature on malaria transmission

Leukocyte Telomere Length in Major Depression: Correlations with Chronicity, Inflammation and Oxidative Stress - Preliminary Findings

Depression is associated with an unusually high rate of aging-related illnesses and early mortality. One aspect of “accelerated aging” in depression may be shortened leukocyte telomeres. When telomeres critically shorten, as often occurs with repeated mitoses or in response to oxidation and inflammation, cells may die. Indeed, leukocyte telomere shortening predicts early mortality and medical illnesses in non-depressed populations. We sought to determine if leukocyte telomeres are shortened in Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), whether this is a function of lifetime depression exposure and whether this is related to putative mediators, oxidation and inflammation.Leukocyte telomere length was compared between 18 unmedicated MDD subjects and 17 controls and was correlated with lifetime depression chronicity and peripheral markers of oxidation (F2-isoprostane/Vitamin C ratio) and inflammation (IL-6). Analyses were controlled for age and sex.The depressed group, as a whole, did not differ from the controls in telomere length. However, telomere length was significantly inversely correlated with lifetime depression exposure, even after controlling for age (p<0.05). Average telomere length in the depressed subjects who were above the median of lifetime depression exposure (≥9.2 years' cumulative duration) was 281 base pairs shorter than that in controls (p<0.05), corresponding to approximately seven years of “accelerated cell aging.” Telomere length was inversely correlated with oxidative stress in the depressed subjects (p<0.01) and in the controls (p<0.05) and with inflammation in the depressed subjects (p<0.05).These preliminary data indicate that accelerated aging at the level of leukocyte telomeres is proportional to lifetime exposure to MDD. This might be related to cumulative exposure to oxidative stress and inflammation in MDD. This suggest that telomere shortening does not antedate depression and is not an intrinsic feature. Rather, telomere shortening may progress in proportion to lifetime depression exposure

Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models

Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18–34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26–29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones

Threats of Zika virus transmission for Asia and its Hindu-Kush Himalayan region

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.No specific funding was received for this research. However, the work of RM, UK and DAG was funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research of Germany (BMBF) under the project AECO (number 01Kl1717) as part of the National Research Network on Zoonotic Infectious Diseases of Germany