Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination ‘as a public health problem’ when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models’ predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020

Loss of the BMP Antagonist, SMOC-1, Causes Ophthalmo-Acromelic (Waardenburg Anophthalmia) Syndrome in Humans and Mice

Ophthalmo-acromelic syndrome (OAS), also known as Waardenburg Anophthalmia syndrome, is defined by the combination of eye malformations, most commonly bilateral anophthalmia, with post-axial oligosyndactyly. Homozygosity mapping and subsequent targeted mutation analysis of a locus on 14q24.2 identified homozygous mutations in SMOC1 (SPARC-related modular calcium binding 1) in eight unrelated families. Four of these mutations are nonsense, two frame-shift, and two missense. The missense mutations are both in the second Thyroglobulin Type-1 (Tg1) domain of the protein. The orthologous gene in the mouse, Smoc1, shows site- and stage-specific expression during eye, limb, craniofacial, and somite development. We also report a targeted pre-conditional gene-trap mutation of Smoc1 (Smoc1tm1a) that reduces mRNA to ∼10% of wild-type levels. This gene-trap results in highly penetrant hindlimb post-axial oligosyndactyly in homozygous mutant animals (Smoc1tm1a/tm1a). Eye malformations, most commonly coloboma, and cleft palate occur in a significant proportion of Smoc1tm1a/tm1a embryos and pups. Thus partial loss of Smoc-1 results in a convincing phenocopy of the human disease. SMOC-1 is one of the two mammalian paralogs of Drosophila Pentagone, an inhibitor of decapentaplegic. The orthologous gene in Xenopus laevis, Smoc-1, also functions as a Bone Morphogenic Protein (BMP) antagonist in early embryogenesis. Loss of BMP antagonism during mammalian development provides a plausible explanation for both the limb and eye phenotype in humans and mice

Early detection of cancer.

Survival improves when cancer is detected early. However, ~50% of cancers are at an advanced stage when diagnosed. Early detection of cancer or precancerous change allows early intervention to try to slow or prevent cancer development and lethality. To achieve early detection of all cancers, numerous challenges must be overcome. It is vital to better understand who is at greatest risk of developing cancer. We also need to elucidate the biology and trajectory of precancer and early cancer to identify consequential disease that requires intervention. Insights must be translated into sensitive and specific early detection technologies and be appropriately evaluated to support practical clinical implementation. Interdisciplinary collaboration is key; advances in technology and biological understanding highlight that it is time to accelerate early detection research and transform cancer survival

Phenotype severity in the bladder exstrophy-epispadias complex: Analysis of genetic and nongenetic contributing factors in 441 families from North America and Europe

OBJECTIVE: To identify genetic and nongenetic risk factors that contribute to the severity of the bladder exstrophy-epispadias complex (BEEC). STUDY DESIGN: Patients with BEEC from North America (n = 167) and Europe (n = 274) were included. The following data were collected: associated anomalies, parental age at conception, mode of conception, periconceptional folic acid supplementation, maternal risk factors during pregnancy, and environmental risk factors. The patients were divided into 3 subgroups according to phenotype severity: (i) mild, epispadias (n = 43); (ii) intermediate, classic bladder exstrophy (n = 366); and (iii) severe, cloacal exstrophy (n = 31). These subgroups then were compared with identify factors that contribute to phenotype severity. RESULTS: Males were overrepresented in all subgroups. A relatively high prevalence of cleft lip, with or without cleft palate, was observed. Maternal smoking and medical radiation during the first trimester were associated with the severe cloacal exstrophy phenotype. Compliance with periconceptional folic acid supplementation was associated with the mildest phenotype (epispadias). CONCLUSIONS: Periconceptional folic acid supplementation appears to prevent the development of the severe phenotype of BEEC

Recurrence pattern analysis after re-irradiation with bevacizumab in recurrent malignant glioma patients

Background: The aim of the present analysis was to evaluate the recurrence pattern in patients with recurrent malignant glioma after re-irradiation in combination with bevacizumab as there is limited data on how to optimally choose dose, fractionation and delineation margins. Methods: Thirty-one patients with recurrent malignant glioma treated with re-irradiation and bevacizumab after previous chemoradiotherapy (concurrent temozolomide 75 mg/m(2)/d according to the EORTC/NCIC trial) and [F-18]FET-PET and/or MRI confirmed recurrence were retrospectively analyzed. Bevacizumab was applied twice during fractionated re-irradiation (10 mg/kg, d1 + d15, median 36 Gy, conventionally fractionated). Recurrence patterns were assessed by means of [F-18]FET-PET and/or MRI. Results: Median follow-up was 34.0 months for all patients [95%-CI, 27.7-40.3] and median post-recurrence survival 10.8 months [95%-CI, 9.2-12.4]. Concerning the recurrence patterns, 61.3% of these were located in-field (19 patients), 22.6% were marginal (7 patients) and 16.1% ex-field (5 patients). No influence on the recurrence pattern was observed according to sex, WHO grade, maintenance chemotherapy or MGMT methylation status whereas planning target volume (PTV) size had a significant influence on the recurrence pattern (p = 0.032). PTV sizes >75 ml were associated with a higher in-field recurrence rate and lower median post-recurrence progression-free survival (8.5 vs. 4.9 months, p = 0.016). Conclusions: After the administration of re-irradiation with bevacizumab the recurrence pattern seems to be mainly centrally located. The PTV size was the main predictor for a marginal/ex-field recurrence