Padrões de distribuição e ocorrência espaço-temporal de ovos e larvas de peixes nos rios Pardo e Anhanduí, bacia do alto rio Paraná, Brasil

In this study we assessed the spatial and temporal distribution of ichthyoplankton and their reproductive strategies into the Pardo and Anhanduí rivers, located on the right bank of the Paraná river, MS. Samples were obtained from October/2009 to March/2010 using conical-cylindrical plankton net for surface samples at nightfall. In general, the family  Anostomidae was the most abundant in this study. We also registered eight migratory species: Prochilodus lineatus; Salminus brasiliensis; Brycon orbignyanus; Rhaphiodon vulpinus; Hemisorubim platyrhynchos/Pseudoplastytoma corruscans; Pimelodus maculatus; Sorubim lima and Zungaro zungaro. However, the sedentary species without parental care were more representative. Considering larval stages of development, significant differences were found for the stage of post-flexion at the mouths of rivers. A spatial pattern of eggs and larvae was registered: eggs were more abundant in the upstream stretches of the rivers and larvae in the downstream stretches. Higher abundances of eggs were found from october to january, and larvae in november, december and january. We conclude that Pardo as Anhanduí are suitable areas for spawning and early development of several fish species. This was clearly observed for the marginal lagoon into the Pardo river, where we registered higher occurrences of larvae in relation to the other sampling stations performed for both rivers.O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a distribuição espacial e temporal do ictioplâncton e suas respectivas estratégias reprodutivas ao longo dos rios Pardo e Anhanduí, situados na margem direita do rio Paraná, bacia do alto rio Paraná, Estado do Mato Grosso do Sul. As coletas foram realizadas entre os meses de outubro/2009 a março/2010 na superfície ao anoitecer, com rede de plâncton cônico-cilíndrica em diversos locais de amostragem. Em geral, a família Anostomidae foi a mais abundante. Foram registradas a presença de oito espécies migradoras: Prochilodus lineatus; Salminus brasiliensis; Brycon orbignyanus; Rhaphiodon vulpinus; Hemisorubim platyrhynchos/Pseudoplastytoma corruscans; Pimelodus maculatus; Sorubim lima and Zungaro zungaro. Porém, as espécies não migradoras sem cuidado parental tiveram maior representatividade. Com relação aos estágios larvais de desenvolvimento, foram verificadas diferenças significativas para o estágio de pós-flexão na foz dos rios. Um padrão espacial de ovos e larvas foi encontrado: os ovos foram mais abundantes nos trechos mais à montante dos rios e as larvas nos trechos mais à jusante. Quanto aos meses amostrados, as abundâncias de ovos foram mais elevadas de outubro a janeiro, e de larvas em novembro, dezembro e janeiro. Assim, pode-se concluir que tanto o rio Pardo como o Anhanduí constituem locais adequados para reprodução e desenvolvimento inicial de várias espécies de peixes, especialmente a lagoa do rio Pardo, onde foram registradas as maiores ocorrências de larvas em relação aos demais pontos de amostragens realizados para ambos os rios

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

The use of morphometric analysis to predict the swimming efficiency of two Neotropical long-distance migratory species in fish passage

This study investigated the external body morphology (based on morphometric data) and the swimming efficiency in fish passages (based on the ascent time in a fish ladder) of two Neotropical long-distance migratory species. The fish were collected in the fish ladder of the Porto Primavera Hydroelectric Power Plant (known as Engenheiro Sergio Motta), upper Paraná River, Brazil. The species differ in several morphometric ratios related to swimming performance. Prochilodus lineatus exhibited a higher muscle ratio and caudal fin length ratio. However, Leporinus elongatus showed higher values for the fineness ratio, a higher length from snout to pectoral fin base ratio, and a higher caudal peduncle depth factor. Although both species show good swimming performance, the characteristics listed above may enable L. elongatus to apply greater power and propulsion, allowing it to reach a high swimming speed and to exhibit greater efficiency than P. lineatus. Leporinus elongatus moves faster than P. lineatus and has a lower mean ascent time (1.39 hours) than P. lineatus (3.76 hours). Prochilodus lineatus would require a somewhat longer time to pass through the fish ladder

Brazilian Flora 2020: Leveraging the power of a collaborative scientific network

International audienceThe shortage of reliable primary taxonomic data limits the description of biological taxa and the understanding of biodiversity patterns and processes, complicating biogeographical, ecological, and evolutionary studies. This deficit creates a significant taxonomic impediment to biodiversity research and conservation planning. The taxonomic impediment and the biodiversity crisis are widely recognized, highlighting the urgent need for reliable taxonomic data. Over the past decade, numerous countries worldwide have devoted considerable effort to Target 1 of the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC), which called for the preparation of a working list of all known plant species by 2010 and an online world Flora by 2020. Brazil is a megadiverse country, home to more of the world's known plant species than any other country. Despite that, Flora Brasiliensis, concluded in 1906, was the last comprehensive treatment of the Brazilian flora. The lack of accurate estimates of the number of species of algae, fungi, and plants occurring in Brazil contributes to the prevailing taxonomic impediment and delays progress towards the GSPC targets. Over the past 12 years, a legion of taxonomists motivated to meet Target 1 of the GSPC, worked together to gather and integrate knowledge on the algal, plant, and fungal diversity of Brazil. Overall, a team of about 980 taxonomists joined efforts in a highly collaborative project that used cybertaxonomy to prepare an updated Flora of Brazil, showing the power of scientific collaboration to reach ambitious goals. This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian Flora 2020 and provides taxonomic and spatial updates on the algae, fungi, and plants found in one of the world's most biodiverse countries. We further identify collection gaps and summarize future goals that extend beyond 2020. Our results show that Brazil is home to 46,975 native species of algae, fungi, and plants, of which 19,669 are endemic to the country. The data compiled to date suggests that the Atlantic Rainforest might be the most diverse Brazilian domain for all plant groups except gymnosperms, which are most diverse in the Amazon. However, scientific knowledge of Brazilian diversity is still unequally distributed, with the Atlantic Rainforest and the Cerrado being the most intensively sampled and studied biomes in the country. In times of “scientific reductionism”, with botanical and mycological sciences suffering pervasive depreciation in recent decades, the first online Flora of Brazil 2020 significantly enhanced the quality and quantity of taxonomic data available for algae, fungi, and plants from Brazil. This project also made all the information freely available online, providing a firm foundation for future research and for the management, conservation, and sustainable use of the Brazilian funga and flora