Designing Information Markets for Decision Making

People often make important decisions based on information elicited from experts with uncertain preferences. We provide a theoretical rationale for the use of information markets in decision making tasks. Specifically, we show that markets for claims on decision-relevant variables can be efficient incentive schemes for eliciting information. Our model shows decision makers will subsidize liquidity in illiquid decision markets to gather valuable information. Our model also shows that the mere act of linking the decision to the market price will typically enhance liquidity in the market. Overall, our results highlight the potential for using information markets in diverse decision making tasks.

Model for Anisotropic Directed Percolation

We propose a simulation model to study the properties of directed percolation in two-dimensional (2D) anisotropic random media. The degree of anisotropy in the model is given by the ratio $\mu$ between the axes of a semi-ellipse enclosing the bonds that promote percolation in one direction. At percolation, this simple model shows that the average number of bonds per site in 2D is an invariant equal to 2.8 independently of $\mu$. This result suggests that Sinai's theorem proposed originally for isotropic percolation is also valid for anisotropic directed percolation problems. The new invariant also yields a constant fractal dimension $D_{f} \sim 1.71$ for all $\mu$, which is the same value found in isotropic directed percolation (i.e., $\mu = 1$).Comment: RevTeX, 9 pages, 3 figures. To appear in Phys.Rev.

STOCHASTIC EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS USING MULTIPLE UTILITY FUNCTIONS

Evaluating the risk of a particular decision depends on the risk aversion of the decision maker related to the underlying utility function. The objective of this paper is to use stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to compare the ranking of risky alternatives using alternative utility functional forms.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Stochastic efficiency analysis with risk aversion bounds: a simplified approach

A method of stochastic dominance analysis with respect to a function (SDRF) is described and illustrated. The method, called stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF), orders a set of risky alternatives in terms of certainty equivalents for a specified range of attitudes to risk. It can be applied for conforming utility functions with risk attitudes defined by corresponding ranges of absolute, relative or partial risk aversion coefficients. Unlike conventional SDRF, SERF involves comparing each alternative with all the other alternatives simultaneously, not pairwise, and hence can produce a smaller efficient set than that found by simple pairwise SDRF over the same range of risk attitudes. Moreover, the method can be implemented in a simple spreadsheet with no special software needed.Risk and Uncertainty,

Role of lysozyme inhibitors in the virulence of avian pathogenic Escherichia coli

Lysozymes are key effectors of the animal innate immunity system that kill bacteria by hydrolyzing peptidoglycan, their major cell wall constituent. Recently, specific inhibitors of the three major lysozyme families occuring in the animal kingdom (c-, g- and i-type) have been discovered in Gram-negative bacteria, and it has been proposed that these may help bacteria to evade lysozyme mediated lysis during interaction with an animal host. Escherichia coli produces two inhibitors that are specific for c-type lysozyme (Ivy, Inhibitor of vertebrate lysozyme; MliC, membrane bound lysozyme inhibitor of c-type lysozyme), and one specific for g-type lysozyme (PliG, periplasmic lysozyme inhibitor of g-type lysozyme). Here, we investigated the role of these lysozyme inhibitors in virulence of Avian Pathogenic E. coli (APEC) using a serum resistance test and a subcutaneous chicken infection model. Knock-out of mliC caused a strong reduction in serum resistance and in in vivo virulence that could be fully restored by genetic complementation, whereas ivy and pliG could be knocked out without effect on serum resistance and virulence. This is the first in vivo evidence for the involvement of lysozyme inhibitors in bacterial virulence. Remarkably, the virulence of a ivy mliC double knock-out strain was restored to almost wild-type level, and this strain also had a substantial residual periplasmic lysozyme inhibitory activity that was higher than that of the single knock-out strains. This suggests the existence of an additional periplasmic lysozyme inhibitor in this strain, and indicates a regulatory interaction in the expression of the different inhibitors

High-Resolution Analysis of the Efficiency, Heritability, and Editing Outcomes of CRISPR/Cas9-Induced Modifications of NCED4 in Lettuce (Lactuca sativa).

CRISPR/Cas9 is a transformative tool for making targeted genetic alterations. In plants, high mutation efficiencies have been reported in primary transformants. However, many of the mutations analyzed were somatic and therefore not heritable. To provide more insights into the efficiency of creating stable homozygous mutants using CRISPR/Cas9, we targeted LsNCED4 (9-cis-EPOXYCAROTENOID DIOXYGENASE4), a gene conditioning thermoinhibition of seed germination in lettuce. Three constructs, each capable of expressing Cas9 and a single gRNA targeting different sites in LsNCED4, were stably transformed into lettuce (Lactuca sativa) cvs. Salinas and Cobham Green. Analysis of 47 primary transformants (T1) and 368 T2 plants by deep amplicon sequencing revealed that 57% of T1 plants contained events at the target site: 28% of plants had germline mutations in one allele indicative of an early editing event (mono-allelic), 8% of plants had germline mutations in both alleles indicative of two early editing events (bi-allelic), and the remaining 21% of plants had multiple low frequency mutations indicative of late events (chimeric plants). Editing efficiency was similar in both genotypes, while the different gRNAs varied in efficiency. Amplicon sequencing of 20 T1 and more than 100 T2 plants for each of the three gRNAs showed that repair outcomes were not random, but reproducible and characteristic for each gRNA. Knockouts of NCED4 resulted in large increases in the maximum temperature for seed germination, with seeds of both cultivars capable of germinating >70% at 37°. Knockouts of NCED4 provide a whole-plant selectable phenotype that has minimal pleiotropic consequences. Targeting NCED4 in a co-editing strategy could therefore be used to enrich for germline-edited events simply by germinating seeds at high temperature

Comparison of Risk Between Cropping Systems in Eastern Norway

The aim of this study was to compare production and policy risk of organic, integrated and conventional cropping systems in Norway. Experimental cropping system data (1991-1999) from eastern Norway were combined with budgeted data. Empirical distributions of total farm income for different cropping systems were estimated with a simulation model that uses a multivariate kernel density function to smooth the limited experimental data. Stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) was used to rank the cropping systems for farmers with various risk aversion levels. The results show that the organic system had the greatest net farm income variability, but the existing payment system and organic price premiums makes it the most economically viable alternative.organic, integrated and conventional crop farming, stochastic simulation, multivariate kernel estimator, risk aversion, stochastic efficiency with respect to a function, Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty, Q12, C44,

Effect of Basazinon 45/30 EC on the Postnatal Development of the Albino Mouse (Mus Musculus) Swiss Strain

Sari. Basazinon 45/30 EC dengan dosis 22 mg/kg b.b. telah diberikan secara oral (gavage) setiap hari kepada mencit hamil pada umur kehamilan 5 hari sampai dengan hari ke 21 pascalahir (saat disapih). Pengamatan di lakukan terhadap berbagai ciri perkembangan fisik dan seksual, serta kemampuan reproduksi mencit generasi F1. Berat badan rata-rata anak mencit selama menyusu dan minggu pertama sesudah disapih ternyata kurang (p< 0,05 dan p<0,01) dari pada anak mencit kelompok kontrol, sedangkan berat badan rata-rata pada saat dilahirkan tidak ada perbedaan. Kemampuan refleks untuk membalikkan tubuh dan telentang menjadi tertelungkup, desendensi testis untuk pertama kali dan terjadinya estrus yang pertama pada kelompok perlakuan didapat pada umur yang lebih lanjut (p < 0,5 dan p < 0,01). Tidak terjadi kelainan yang nyata dalam hal kemampuan reproduksi dan ciri-ciri perkembangan lainnya pada kelompok perlakuan. Abstract. Basazinon 45/30 EC of 22 mg/kg b.w. were administered daily by gavage to pregnant mice on day 15 of gestation to the day of weaning (21 days old). Several physical and sexual developmental criteria and the reproductive ability of the F1 generation were observed. The mean body weight of the young during the period of lactation and the first week after weaning were significantly lighter (p < 0.05 and p < 0.01) than that of the controls, while the mean birth weight were not different. The reflex ability in turning the body from supine to prone position, the first testicle descent and the first estrous, occured significantly later in experimental young (p < 0.05 and p < 0.01). No significant deviation in the reproductive ability and other developmental criteria were found

Generalized Weak Supervision for Neural Information Retrieval

Neural ranking models (NRMs) have demonstrated effective performance in several information retrieval (IR) tasks. However, training NRMs often requires large-scale training data, which is difficult and expensive to obtain. To address this issue, one can train NRMs via weak supervision, where a large dataset is automatically generated using an existing ranking model (called the weak labeler) for training NRMs. Weakly supervised NRMs can generalize from the observed data and significantly outperform the weak labeler. This paper generalizes this idea through an iterative re-labeling process, demonstrating that weakly supervised models can iteratively play the role of weak labeler and significantly improve ranking performance without using manually labeled data. The proposed Generalized Weak Supervision (GWS) solution is generic and orthogonal to the ranking model architecture. This paper offers four implementations of GWS: self-labeling, cross-labeling, joint cross- and self-labeling, and greedy multi-labeling. GWS also benefits from a query importance weighting mechanism based on query performance prediction methods to reduce noise in the generated training data. We further draw a theoretical connection between self-labeling and Expectation-Maximization. Our experiments on two passage retrieval benchmarks suggest that all implementations of GWS lead to substantial improvements compared to weak supervision in all cases

Deterministic Assembly of Arrays of Lithographically Defined WS2 and MoS2 Monolayer Features Directly from Multilayer Sources into Van der Waals Heterostructures

One of the major challenges in the van der Waals (vdW) integration of two-dimensional (2D) materials is achieving high-yield and high-throughput assembly of predefined sequences of monolayers into heterostructure arrays. Mechanical exfoliation has recently been studied as a promising technique to transfer monolayers from a multilayer source synthesized by other techniques, allowing the deposition of a wide variety of 2D materials without exposing the target substrate to harsh synthesis conditions. Although a variety of processes have been developed to exfoliate the 2D materials mechanically from the source and place them deterministically onto a target substrate, they can typically transfer only either a wafer-scale blanket or one small flake at a time with uncontrolled size and shape. Here, we present a method to assemble arrays of lithographically defined monolayer WS2 and MoS2 features from multilayer sources and directly transfer them in a deterministic manner onto target substrates. This exfoliate-align-release process - without the need of an intermediate carrier substrate - is enabled by combining a patterned, gold-mediated exfoliation technique with a new optically transparent, heat-releasable adhesive. WS2/MoS2 vdW heterostructure arrays produced by this method show the expected interlayer exciton between the monolayers. Light-emitting devices using WS2 monolayers were also demonstrated, proving the functionality of the fabricated materials. Our work demonstrates a significant step toward developing mechanical exfoliation as a scalable dry transfer technique for the manufacturing of functional, atomically thin materials