England SimSmoke: the impact of nicotine vaping on smoking prevalence and smoking‐attributable deaths in England

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: While the use of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is widespread, their impact on smoking prevalence is controversial. This study considered the potential impact of NVPs on smoking prevalence in England. DESIGN: Indirect simulation model. The England SimSmoke model is validated through 2012, before NVP use became more widely used by smokers. Because information on NVP-related transitions is limited, an indirect method is used; the difference in observed smoking prevalence (reflecting NVPs) is compared with a 2012-2019 counterfactual No-NVP scenario (without NVPs) to estimate the impact of NVPs on smoking and smoking-attributable deaths. SETTING: England, 2000-2019. PARTICIPANTS: Nationally representative sample of population. MEASUREMENTS: England's population, mortality rates, and smoking prevalence estimates from three national surveys and tobacco control policies. FINDINGS: Between 2000 and 2012, SimSmoke projected a decline in age 18+ smoking prevalence of 23.5% in men and 27.0% in women. These projections, as well as those by specific age groups, were generally consistent with findings from the three national surveys. Comparing 2012-2019 relative reduction in age 18+ prevalence from the Annual Population Survey (males 27.5%) with the model-predicted No-NVP reduction (males 7.3%), the implied NVP-attributable relative reduction in adult smoking prevalence was 20.2% (95% CI, 18.8%-22.0%) for males and 20.4% (18.7%-22.2%) for females. The NVP-attributable reduction was 27.2% (22.8%-31.6%) for males and 31.7% (27.4%-36.5%) for females ages 18-24 and 18.6% (15.2%-21.8%) for males and 15.0% (11.1%-18.8%) for females ages 25-34, with similar reductions for ages 35 and above. The implied reduction in smoking prevalence between 2012 and 2019 equates to 165,660 (132,453-199,501) averted deaths by 2052. Other surveys yielded smaller, but relatively consistent results. CONCLUSIONS: An indirect method of simulation modeling indicates that substantial reductions in smoking prevalence occurred in England from 2012 to 2019 coinciding with the growth in nicotine vaping product use

Comparison of Tobacco Control Scenarios: Quantifying Estimates of Long-Term Health Impact Using the DYNAMO-HIA Modeling Tool

There are several types of tobacco control interventions/policies which can change future smoking exposure. The most basic intervention types are 1) smoking cessation interventions 2) preventing smoking initiation and 3) implementation of a nationwide policy affecting quitters and starters simultaneously. The possibility for dynamic quantification of such different interventions is key for comparing the timing and size of their effects

Computational Validation of Injection Molding Tooling by Additive Layer Manufacture to Produce EPDM Exterior Automotive Seals

During the design and development of ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) exterior automotive seals, prototype components can only manufactured through production tooling platforms by either injection molding or extrusion. Consequently, tooling is expensive and has long lead times. This paper investigates whether additive layer manufacture is a viable method for producing tooling used in injection molding of exterior automotive seals in EPDM. Specifically, a novel rapid tooling is a method that combines additive layer manufacture (ALM) with epoxy reinforcement. Computational validation is performed whereby the mechanical properties of the tool are evaluated. The research has concluded that the novel tooling configuration would be suitable for prototyping purposes which would drastically reduce both costly and environmentally detrimental pre-manufacturing processes. This work has laid the foundations to implement rapid tooling technology to the injection molding of prototype EPDM parts

Impact of Scottish smoke-free legislation on smoking quit attempts and prevalence

<p><b>Objectives:</b> In Scotland, legislation was implemented in March 2006 prohibiting smoking in all wholly or partially enclosed public spaces. We investigated the impact on attempts to quit smoking and smoking prevalence.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> We performed time series models using Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) on monthly data on the gross ingredient cost of all nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) prescribed in Scotland in 2003–2009, and quarterly data on self-reported smoking prevalence between January 1999 and September 2010 from the Scottish Household Survey.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> NRT prescription costs were significantly higher than expected over the three months prior to implementation of the legislation. Prescription costs peaked at £1.3 million in March 2006; £292,005.9 (95% CI £260,402.3, £323,609, p<0.001) higher than the monthly norm. Following implementation of the legislation, costs fell exponentially by around 26% per month (95% CI 17%, 35%, p<0.001). Twelve months following implementation, the costs were not significantly different to monthly norms. Smoking prevalence fell by 8.0% overall, from 31.3% in January 1999 to 23.7% in July–September 2010. In the quarter prior to implementation of the legislation, smoking prevalence fell by 1.7% (95% CI 2.4%, 1.0%, p<0.001) more than expected from the underlying trend.</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> Quit attempts increased in the three months leading up to Scotland's smoke-free legislation, resulting in a fall in smoking prevalence. However, neither has been sustained suggesting the need for additional tobacco control measures and ongoing support.</p&gt

Impacts of Climate Change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture

Objective: Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts. Data sources: In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change ; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture ; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems ; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. Data synthesis: We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment ; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems ; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks. Conclusions: Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes

Neonatal umbilical cord blood transplantation halts skeletal disease progression in the murine model of MPS-I

Umbilical cord blood (UCB) is a promising source of stem cells to use in early haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) approaches for several genetic diseases that can be diagnosed at birth. Mucopolysaccharidosis type I (MPS-I) is a progressive multi-system disorder caused by deficiency of lysosomal enzyme α-L-iduronidase, and patients treated with allogeneic HSCT at the onset have improved outcome, suggesting to administer such therapy as early as possible. Given that the best characterized MPS-I murine model is an immunocompetent mouse, we here developed a transplantation system based on murine UCB. With the final aim of testing the therapeutic efficacy of UCB in MPS-I mice transplanted at birth, we first defined the features of murine UCB cells and demonstrated that they are capable of multi-lineage haematopoietic repopulation of myeloablated adult mice similarly to bone marrow cells. We then assessed the effectiveness of murine UCB cells transplantation in busulfan-conditioned newborn MPS-I mice. Twenty weeks after treatment, iduronidase activity was increased in visceral organs of MPS-I animals, glycosaminoglycans storage was reduced, and skeletal phenotype was ameliorated. This study explores a potential therapy for MPS-I at a very early stage in life and represents a novel model to test UCB-based transplantation approaches for various diseases

Arterial dP/dtmax accurately reflects left ventricular contractility during shock when adequate vascular filling is achieved

Background: Peak first derivative of femoral artery pressure (arterial dP/dt max) derived from fluid-filled catheter remains questionable to assess left ventricular (LV) contractility during shock. The aim of this study was to test if arterial dP/dt maxis reliable for assessing LV contractility during various hemodynamic conditions such as endotoxin-induced shock and catecholamine infusion.Methods: Ventricular pressure-volume data obtained with a conductance catheter and invasive arterial pressure obtained with a fluid-filled catheter were continuously recorded in 6 anaesthetized and mechanically ventilated pigs. After a stabilization period, endotoxin was infused to induce shock. Catecholamines were transiently administrated during shock. Arterial dP/dt maxwas compared to end-systolic elastance (Ees), the gold standard method for assessing LV contractility.Results: Endotoxin-induced shock and catecholamine infusion lead to significant variations in LV contractility. Overall, significant correlation (r = 0.51; p < 0.001) but low agreement between the two methods were observed. However, a far better correlation with a good agreement were observed when positive-pressure ventilation induced an arterial pulse pressure variation (PPV) ≤ 11% (r = 0.77; p < 0.001).Conclusion: While arterial dP/dt maxand Ees were significantly correlated during various hemodynamic conditions, arterial dP/dt maxwas more accurate for assessing LV contractility when adequate vascular filling, defined as PPV ≤ 11%, was achieved. © 2012 Morimont et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd