Modelling and managing reliability growth during the engineering design process

[This is a keynote speech presented at the 2nd International Conference on Design Engineering and Science, discussing modelling and managing reliability growth during the engineering process.] Reliability is vital for safe and efficient operation of systems. Decisions about the configuration and selection of parts within a system, and the development activities to prove the chosen design, will influence the inherent reliability. Modelling provides a mechanism for explicating the relationship between the engineering activities and the statistical measures of reliability so that useful estimates of reliability can be obtained. Reliability modelling should be aligned to support the decisions taken during design and development. We examine why and how a reliability growth model can be structured, the type of data required and available to populate them, the selection of relevant summary measures, the process for updating estimates and feeding back into design to support planning decisions. The modelling process described is informed by our theoretical background in management science and our practical experience of working with UK industry

Population-based study of autoimmune conditions and the risk of specific lymphoid malignancies

Some autoimmune conditions are associated with increased risk of lymphoid malignancies, but information on specific malignancy subtypes is limited. From the U.S. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare database, we selected 44,350 lymphoid malignancy cases (≥67 years) and 122,531 population-based controls. Logistic regression was used to derive odds ratios (ORs) comparing the prevalence of autoimmune conditions in cases and controls, by lymphoid malignancy subtype, adjusted for gender, age at malignancy/selection, year of malignancy/selection, race and number of physician claims. The strongest associations observed by Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) subtypes were diffuse large B-cell lymphoma with rheumatoid arthritis (OR 1.4, 95%CI 1.2-1.5) and Sjögren syndrome (2.0, 1.5-2.8); T-cell lymphoma with hemolytic anemia (9.7, 4.3-22), psoriasis (3.1, 2.5-4.0), discoid lupus erythematosus (4.4, 2.3-8.4), and celiac disease (5.0, 2.4-14.); and marginal zone lymphoma with Sjögren syndrome (6.6, 4.6-9.5), systemic lupus erythematosus (2.8, 1.7-4.7), and hemolytic anemia (7.4, 3.1-18). Hodgkin lymphoma was associated with several autoimmune conditions. Multiple myeloma was associated only with pernicious anemia (1.5, 1.3-1.7). Several autoimmune conditions were associated with increased risk of lymphoid neoplasms, especially NHLs of diffuse large B-cell, marginal zone and T-cell subtypes. These results support a mechanism whereby chronic antigenic stimulation leads to lymphoid malignancy

Effects of newer kidney protective agents on kidney endpoints provide implications for future clinical trials

Doubling of serum creatinine (equivalent to a 57% decline in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)) is an accepted component of a composite kidney endpoint in clinical trials. Smaller declines in eGFR (40%, 50%) have been applied in several recently conducted clinical trials. Here, we assessed the effects of newer kidney protective agents on endpoints including smaller proportional declines in eGFR to compare relative event rates and the magnitude of observed treatment effects. We performed a post hoc analysis of 4401 patients in the CREDENCE, 4304 in the DAPA-CKD, 5734 in the FIDELIO-DKD, and 3668 in the SONAR trials, which assessed the effects of canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, finerenone and atrasentan in patients with chronic kidney disease. Effects of active therapies versus placebo on alternative composite kidney endpoints incorporating different eGFR decline thresholds (40%, 50%, or 57% eGFR reductions from baseline) with kidney failure or death due to kidney failure were compared. Cox-proportional hazards regression models were used to assess and compare treatment effects. During follow-up, event rates were higher for endpoints incorporating smaller versus larger eGFR decline thresholds. Compared to the treatment effects on kidney failure or death due to kidney failure, the magnitude of relative treatment effects was generally similar when considering composite endpoints incorporating smaller declines in eGFR. Hazard ratios for the four interventions ranged from 0.63 to 0.82 for the endpoint incorporating 40% eGFR decline and 0.59 to 0.76 for the endpoint incorporating 57% eGFR decline. Clinical trials incorporating a 40% eGFR decline in a composite endpoint would require approximately half the number of participants compared to a 57% eGFR decline with equivalent statistical power. Thus, in populations at high risk of CKD progression, the relative effects of newer kidney protective therapies appear generally similar across endpoints based on varying eGFR decline thresholds.</p

Evaluation of Variation in the Performance of GFR Slope as a Surrogate End Point for Kidney Failure in Clinical Trials that Differ by Severity of CKD

BACKGROUND: The GFR slope has been evaluated as a surrogate end point for kidney failure in meta-analyses on a broad collection of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in CKD. These analyses evaluate how accurately a treatment effect on GFR slope predicts a treatment effect on kidney failure. We sought to determine whether severity of CKD in the patient population modifies the performance of GFR slope. METHODS: We performed Bayesian meta-regression analyses on 66 CKD RCTs to evaluate associations between effects on GFR slope (the chronic slope and the total slope over 3 years, expressed as mean differences in ml/min per 1.73 m2/yr) and those of the clinical end point (doubling of serum creatinine, GFR &lt;15 ml/min per 1.73 m2, or kidney failure, expressed as a log-hazard ratio), where models allow interaction with variables defining disease severity. We evaluated three measures (baseline GFR in 10 ml/min per 1.73 m2, baseline urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio [UACR] per doubling in mg/g, and CKD progression rate defined as the control arm chronic slope, in ml/min per 1.73 m2/yr) and defined strong evidence for modification when 95% posterior credible intervals for interaction terms excluded zero. RESULTS: There was no evidence for modification by disease severity when evaluating 3-year total slope (95% credible intervals for the interaction slope: baseline GFR [-0.05 to 0.03]; baseline UACR [-0.02 to 0.04]; CKD progression rate [-0.07 to 0.02]). There was strong evidence for modification in evaluations of chronic slope (95% credible intervals: baseline GFR [0.02 to 0.11]; baseline UACR [-0.11 to -0.02]; CKD progression rate [0.01 to 0.15]). CONCLUSIONS: These analyses indicate consistency of the performance of total slope over 3 years, which provides further evidence for its validity as a surrogate end point in RCTs representing varied CKD populations.</p

Change in Albuminuria and GFR Slope as Joint Surrogate End Points for Kidney Failure:Implications for Phase 2 Clinical Trials in CKD

Significance Statement: Changes in albuminuria and GFR slope are individually used as surrogate end points in clinical trials of CKD progression, and studies have demonstrated that each is associated with treatment effects on clinical end points. In this study, the authors sought to develop a conceptual framework that combines both surrogate end points to better predict treatment effects on clinical end points in Phase 2 trials. The results demonstrate that information from the combined treatment effects on albuminuria and GFR slope improves the prediction of treatment effects on the clinical end point for Phase 2 trials with sample sizes between 100 and 200 patients and duration of follow-up ranging from 1 to 2 years. These findings may help inform design of clinical trials for interventions aimed at slowing CKD progression.Background Changes in log urinary albumin-To-creatinine ratio (UACR) and GFR slope are individually used as surrogate end points in clinical trials of CKD progression. Whether combining these surrogate end points might strengthen inferences about clinical benefit is unknown.Methods Using Bayesian meta-regressions across 41 randomized trials of CKD progression, we characterized the combined relationship between the treatment effects on the clinical end point (sustained doubling of serum creatinine, GFR &lt;15 ml/min per 1.73 m2, or kidney failure) and treatment effects on UACR change and chronic GFR slope after 3 months. We applied the results to the design of Phase 2 trials on the basis of UACR change and chronic GFR slope in combination.Results Treatment effects on the clinical end point were strongly associated with the combination of treatment effects on UACR change and chronic slope. The posterior median meta-regression coefficients for treatment effects were-0.41 (95% Bayesian Credible Interval,-0.64 to-0.17) per 1 ml/min per 1.73 m2per year for the treatment effect on GFR slope and-0.06 (95% Bayesian Credible Interval,-0.90 to 0.77) for the treatment effect on UACR change. The predicted probability of clinical benefit when considering both surrogates was determined primarily by estimated treatment effects on UACR when sample size was small (approximately 60 patients per treatment arm) and follow-up brief (approximately 1 year), with the importance of GFR slope increasing for larger sample sizes and longer follow-up.Conclusions In Phase 2 trials of CKD with sample sizes of 100-200 patients per arm and follow-up between 1 and 2 years, combining information from treatment effects on UACR change and GFR slope improved the prediction of treatment effects on clinical end points.</p

Acute Treatment Effects on GFR in Randomized Clinical Trials of Kidney Disease Progression

Background: Acute changes in GFR can occur after initiation of interventions targeting progression of CKD. These acute changes complicate the interpretation of long-term treatment effects. Methods: To assess the magnitude and consistency of acute effects in randomized clinical trials and explore factors that might affect them, we performed a meta-analysis of 53 randomized clinical trials for CKD progression, enrolling 56,413 participants with at least one estimated GFR measurement by 6 months after randomization. We defined acute treatment effects as the mean difference in GFR slope from baseline to 3 months between randomized groups. We performed univariable and multivariable metaregression to assess the effect of intervention type, disease state, baseline GFR, and albuminuria on the magnitude of acute effects. Results: The mean acute effect across all studies was 20.21 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (95% confidence interval, 20.63 to 0.22) over 3 months, with substantial heterogeneity across interventions (95% coverage interval across studies, 22.50 to 12.08 ml/min per 1.73 m2). We observed negative average acute effects in renin angiotensin system blockade, BP lowering, and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor trials, and positive acute effects in trials of immunosuppressive agents. Larger negative acute effects were observed in trials with a higher mean baseline GFR. Conclusion: The magnitude and consistency of acute GFR effects vary across different interventions, and are larger at higher baseline GFR. Understanding the nature and magnitude of acute effects can help inform the optimal design of randomized clinical trials evaluating disease progression in CKD

Associations of common breast cancer susceptibility alleles with risk of breast cancer subtypes in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers

Introduction: More than 70 common alleles are known to be involved in breast cancer (BC) susceptibility, and several exhibit significant heterogeneity in their associations with different BC subtypes. Although there are differences in the association patterns between BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers and the general population for several loci, no study has comprehensively evaluated the associations of all known BC susceptibility alleles with risk of BC subtypes in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Methods: We used data from 15,252 BRCA1 and 8,211 BRCA2 carriers to analyze the associations between approximately 200,000 genetic variants on the iCOGS array and risk of BC subtypes defined by estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) and triple-negative- (TN) status; morphologic subtypes; histological grade; and nodal involvement. Results: The estimated BC hazard ratios (HRs) for the 74 known BC alleles in BRCA1 carriers exhibited moderate correlations with the corresponding odds ratios from the general population. However, their associations with ER-positive BC in BRCA1 carriers were more consistent with the ER-positive as

Fine-Scale Mapping of the 4q24 Locus Identifies Two Independent Loci Associated with Breast Cancer Risk

Background: A recent association study identified a common variant (rs9790517) at 4q24 to be associated with breast cancer risk. Independent association signals and potential functional variants in this locus have not been explored. Methods: We conducted a fine-mapping analysis in 55,540 breast cancer cases and 51,168 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Results: Conditional analyses identified two independent association signals among women of European ancestry, represented by rs9790517 [conditional P = 2.51 × 10−4; OR, 1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02–1.07] and rs77928427 (P = 1.86 × 10−4; OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02–1.07). Functional annotation using data from the Encyclopedia of DNA Elements (ENCODE) project revealed two putative functional variants, rs62331150 and rs73838678 in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with rs9790517 (r2 ≥ 0.90) residing in the active promoter or enhancer, respectively, of the nearest gene, TET2. Both variants are located in DNase I hypersensitivity and transcription factor–binding sites. Using data from both The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC), we showed that rs62331150 was associated with level of expression of TET2 in breast normal and tumor tissue. Conclusion: Our study identified two independent association signals at 4q24 in relation to breast cancer risk and suggested that observed association in this locus may be mediated through the regulation of TET2. Impact: Fine-mapping study with large sample size warranted for identification of independent loci for breast cancer risk

Functional mechanisms underlying pleiotropic risk alleles at the 19p13.1 breast-ovarian cancer susceptibility locus

A locus at 19p13 is associated with breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Here we analyse 438 SNPs in this region in 46,451 BC and 15,438 OC cases, 15,252 BRCA1 mutation carriers and 73,444 controls and identify 13 candidate causal SNPs associated with serous OC (P=9.2 × 10-20), ER-negative BC (P=1.1 × 10-13), BRCA1-associated BC (P=7.7 × 10-16) and triple negative BC (P-diff=2 × 10-5). Genotype-gene expression associations are identified for candidate target genes ANKLE1 (P=2 × 10-3) and ABHD8 (P<2 × 10-3). Chromosome conformation capture identifies interactions between four candidate SNPs and ABHD8, and luciferase assays indicate six risk alleles increased transactivation of the ADHD8 promoter. Targeted deletion of a region containing risk SNP rs56069439 in a putative enhancer induces ANKLE1 downregulation; and mRNA stability assays indicate functional effects for an ANKLE1 3′-UTR SNP. Altogether, these data suggest that multiple SNPs at 19p13 regulate ABHD8 and perhaps ANKLE1 expression, and indicate common mechanisms underlying breast and ovarian cancer risk

Genome-Wide Association Study in BRCA1 Mutation Carriers Identifies Novel Loci Associated with Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk

BRCA1-associated breast and ovarian cancer risks can be modified by common genetic variants. To identify further cancer risk-modifying loci, we performed a multi-stage GWAS of 11,705 BRCA1 carriers (of whom 5,920 were diagnosed with breast and 1,839 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer), with a further replication in an additional sample of 2,646 BRCA1 carriers. We identified a novel breast cancer risk modifier locus at 1q32 for BRCA1 carriers (rs2290854, P = 2.7×10-8, HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.20). In addition, we identified two novel ovarian cancer risk modifier loci: 17q21.31 (rs17631303, P = 1.4×10-8, HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38) and 4q32.3 (rs4691139, P = 3.4×10-8, HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38). The 4q32.3 locus was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in the general population or BRCA2 carriers, suggesting a BRCA1-specific associat