Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of lower respiratory infections among children younger than 5 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BackgroundDespite large reductions in under-5 lower respiratory infection (LRI) mortality in many locations, the pace of progress for LRIs has generally lagged behind that of other childhood infectious diseases. To better inform programmes and policies focused on preventing and treating LRIs, we assessed the contributions and patterns of risk factor attribution, intervention coverage, and sociodemographic development in 195 countries and territories by drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) LRI estimates.MethodsWe used four strategies to model LRI burden: the mortality due to LRIs was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive ensemble modelling tool; the incidence of LRIs was modelled using population representative surveys, health-care utilisation data, and scientific literature in a compartmental meta-regression tool; the attribution of risk factors for LRI mortality was modelled in a counterfactual framework; and trends in LRI mortality were analysed applying changes in exposure to risk factors over time. In GBD, infectious disease mortality, including that due to LRI, is among HIV-negative individuals. We categorised locations based on their burden in 1990 to make comparisons in the changing burden between 1990 and 2017 and evaluate the relative percent change in mortality rate, incidence, and risk factor exposure to explain differences in the health loss associated with LRIs among children younger than 5 years.FindingsIn 2017, LRIs caused 808 920 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 747 286-873 591) in children younger than 5 years. Since 1990, there has been a substantial decrease in the number of deaths (from 2 337 538 to 808 920 deaths; 65·4% decrease, 61·5-68·5) and in mortality rate (from 362·7 deaths [330·1-392·0] per 100 000 children to 118·9 deaths [109·8-128·3] per 100 000 children; 67·2% decrease, 63·5-70·1). LRI incidence declined globally (32·4% decrease, 27·2-37·5). The percent change in under-5 mortality rate and incidence has varied across locations. Among the risk factors assessed in this study, those responsible for the greatest decrease in under-5 LRI mortality between 1990 and 2017 were increased coverage of vaccination against Haemophilus influenza type b (11·4% decrease, 0·0-24·5), increased pneumococcal vaccine coverage (6·3% decrease, 6·1-6·3), and reductions in household air pollution (8·4%, 6·8-9·2).InterpretationOur findings show that there have been substantial but uneven declines in LRI mortality among countries between 1990 and 2017. Although improvements in indicators of sociodemographic development could explain some of these trends, changes in exposure to modifiable risk factors are related to the rates of decline in LRI mortality. No single intervention would universally accelerate reductions in health loss associated with LRIs in all settings, but emphasising the most dominant risk factors, particularly in countries with high case fatality, can contribute to the reduction of preventable deaths.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The proportion of loss to follow-up from antiretroviral therapy (ART) and its association with age among adolescents living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a global health threat, especially in developing countries. The successful scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs to address this threat is hindered by a high proportion of patient loss to follow-up (LTFU). LTFU is associated with poor viral suppression and increased mortality. It is particularly acute among adolescents, who face unique adherence challenges. Although LTFU is a critical obstacle on the continuum of care for adolescents, few regional-level studies report the proportion of LTFU among adolescents receiving ART. Therefore, a systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to estimate the pooled LTFU in ART programs among adolescents living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). METHODS: We searched five databases (PubMed, Embase (Elsevier), PsycINFO, CINAHL, and Scopus) for articles published between 2005 and 2020 and reference lists of included articles. The PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews were followed. A standardised checklist to extract data was used. Descriptive summaries were presented using narrative tables and figures. Heterogeneity within the included studies was examined using the Cochrane Q test statistics and I2 test. Random effect models were used to estimate the pooled prevalence of LTFU among ALHIV. We used Stata version 16 statistical software for our analysis. RESULTS: Twenty-nine eligible studies (n = 285,564) were included. An estimated 15.07% (95% CI: 11.07, 19.07) of ALHIV were LTFU. Older adolescents (15-19 years old) were 43% (AOR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.37, 0.87) more likely to be LTFU than younger (10-14 years old) adolescents. We find an insignificant relationship between gender and LTFU (AOR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.03). A subgroup analysis found that regional differences in the proportion of adolescent LTFU were not statistically significant. The trend analysis indicates an increasing proportion of adolescent LTFU over time. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: The proportion of LTFU among HIV-positive adolescents in SSA seems higher than those reported in other regions. Older adolescents in the region are at an increased risk for LTFU than younger adolescents. These findings may help policymakers develop appropriate strategies to retain ALHIV in ART services. Such strategies could include community ART distribution points, appointment spacing, adherence clubs, continuous free access to ART, and community-based adherence support

Effects of maternal education on birth preparedness and complication readiness among Ethiopian pregnant women: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BackgroundBirth preparedness and complication readiness are broadly endorsed by governments and international agencies to reduce maternal and neonatal health threats in low income countries. Maternal education is broadly positioned to positively affect the mother's and her children's health and nutrition in low income countries. Thus, this systematic review and meta-analysis aims to estimate the effect of maternal education on birth preparedness and complication readiness.MethodsThis review was reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis. We conducted an electronic based search using data bases of PubMed /MEDLINE, Science direct and google scholar. STATA™ Version 14.1 was used to analyze the data, and forest plots were used to present the findings. I2 test statistics and Egger's test were used to assess heterogeneity and publication bias. Pooled prevalence and pooled odd ratios with 95% confidence intervals were computed. Finally, Duval and Tweedie's nonparametric trim and fill analysis using random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to account for publication bias.ResultsIn this meta-analysis, 20 studies involving 13,744 pregnant women meeting the inclusion criteria were included, of which 15 studies reported effects of maternal education on birth preparedness and complication readiness. Overall estimated level of birth preparedness and complication readiness was 25.2% (95% CI 20.0, 30.6%). This meta-analysis found that maternal education and level of birth preparedness and complication readiness were positively associated. Pregnant mothers whose level of education was primary and above were more likely to prepare for birth and obstetric emergencies (OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.9, 3.1) than non-educated mothers.ConclusionIn Ethiopia, the proportion of women prepared for birth and related complications remained low. Maternal education has a positive effect on the level of birth preparedness and complication readiness. Therefore, it is imperative to launch programs at national and regional levels to uplift women's educational status to enhance the likelihood of maternal health services utilization

Level of self-care practice among diabetic patients in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND:Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is increasingly become a serious global public health concern in developed and developing countries including Ethiopia. It imposes significant burden of care on the individual, health care professionals and health system. As the result, immense need of self-care behaviors in multiple domains like food choices, physical activity, foot care, and blood glucose monitoring is required. However, there is no national study on diabetic self-care practices in Ethiopia. This meta-analysis, therefore, aims to estimate the pooled level of self-care practice among individuals living with diabetes mellitus in Ethiopia. METHODS:The systematic review was reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guideline. We systematically searched the databases: PubMed /MEDLINE, EMBASE, Google Scholar, and Science Direct for studies conducted in Ethiopia about self-care practice of diabetes patients. We have included all cross-sectional studies, which were published until August 20th,2019. Data were analyzed using STATA™ version 14.1 software, and the pooled prevalence with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were presented using tables and forest plots. The presence of statistical heterogeneity within the included studies was evaluated using I-squared statistic. We used Higgins and Egger's test to identify evidence of publication bias. The random-effects meta-analysis model was employed to estimate the pooled proportion of good diabetic self-care practices. RESULTS:We included 35 studies (with 11,103 participants) in this meta-analysis. The overall pooled prevalence of good diabetes self-care behavior among diabetic patients was 49% (95% CI:43, 56%). When categorized by the major domains of diabetes self-care, the pooled estimate of dietary practice was 50% (95% CI:42, 58%), for self- monitoring of blood glucose was 28% (95% CI:19, 37%), for recommended physical activity was 49% (95% CI:38, 59%), and for diabetic foot-care was 58% (95% CI: 41, 74%). CONCLUSION:More than half of diabetic patients in Ethiopia had poor diabetes self-care practice. High percentage of diabetic patients also had poor dietary practice, self- monitoring of blood glucose, physical activity, and diabetic foot care. Therefore, intervention programs should focus on improving the knowledge level of diabetic patients to improve the self-care practice of diabetic patients

Incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up among HIV-positive adults in northwest Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study.

BackgroundDespite the rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy services, 'loss to follow-up' is a significant public health concern globally. Loss to follow-up of individuals from ART has a countless negative impact on the treatment outcomes. There is, however, limited information about the incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up in our study area. Thus, this study aimed to determine the incidence rate and predictors of loss to follow-up among adult HIV patients on ART.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was undertaken using 484 HIV patients between January 30, 2008, and January 26, 2018, at Debre Markos Referral Hospital. All eligible HIV patients who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were included in this study. Data were entered into Epi-data Version 4.2 and analyzed using STATATM Version 14.0 software. The Nelson-Aalen cumulative hazard estimator was used to estimate the hazard rate of loss to follow-up, and the log-rank test was used to compare the survival curve between different categorical variables. Both bivariable and multivariable Cox-proportional hazard regression models were fitted to identify predictors of LTFU.ResultsAmong a cohort of 484 HIV patients at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, 84 (17.36%) were loss their ART follow-up. The overall incidence rate of loss to follow-up was 3.7 (95% CI 3.0, 5.0) per 100 adult-years. The total LTFU free time of the participants was 2294.8 person-years. In multivariable Cox-regression analysis, WHO stage IV (AHR 2.8; 95% CI 1.2, 6.2), having no cell phone (AHR 1.9; 95% CI 1.1, 3.4), and rural residence (AHR 0.6; 95% CI 0.37, 0.99) were significant predictors of loss to follow-up.ConclusionThe incidence of loss to ART follow-up in this study was low. Having no cell phone and WHO clinical stage IV were causative predictors, and rural residence was the only protective factor of loss to follow-up. Therefore, available intervention modalities should be strengthened to mitigate loss to follow-up by addressing the identified risk factors

Availability of adequately iodized salt at the household level in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundIodine deficiency disorder (IDD) is a global, regional, and national public health problem that is preventable. Universal salt iodization is a worldwide accepted strategy to prevent IDD. The level of iodine in the salt should be adequate at the household level (≥15ppm). Though there was fragmented evidence on the proportion of adequately iodized salt at the household level in Ethiopia, the national level proportion of adequately iodized salt at the household level was remaining unknown. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis estimated the pooled proportion of adequately iodized salt at the household level in Ethiopia from 2013-2020.MethodWe systematically searched the databases: PubMed/MEDLINE, Google Scholar, and Science Direct for studies conducted in Ethiopia on the availability of adequately iodized salt at the household level since 2013. We have included observational studies, which were published between January first, 2013, and 10 August 2020. The report was compiled according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. The quality of included studies was scored based on the Newcastle Ottawa quality assessment scale adapted for cross-sectional studies. The data were extracted in Microsoft excel and analyzed using Stata version 14.1 software. We employed a random-effects model to estimate the pooled proportion of adequately iodized salt at the household level in Ethiopia. The presence of statistical heterogeneity within the included studies was evaluated using the I-squared statistic. We used Egger's regression test to identify evidence of publication bias. The pooled proportion with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was presented using tables and forest plots.ResultsWe screened a total of 195 articles. Of these, 28 studies (with 15561 households) were included in the final systematic review and meta-analysis. In Ethiopia, the pooled proportion of adequately iodized salt at the household level was 37% (95% CI: 28, 46%). The subgroup analyses of 28 studies by residence revealed that the pooled proportion of adequately iodized salt at the household level was 32% (95% CI: 29, 35%) and 48% (95% CI: 31, 66%) in rural and urban areas, respectively. Based on geographic location, the highest proportion was found in Addis Ababa (81%; 95%CI: 78, 83), and the lowest proportion found in Dire Dawa (20%; 95%CI: 17, 22). Besides, the proportion of adequately iodized salt at the household level was significantly increased during 2017-2020 (42%; 95% CI: 30, 53%) as compared with 2013-2016 (27%; 95% CI: 17, 39%).ConclusionsIn Ethiopia, the pooled proportion of adequately iodized salt at the household level was very low as compared to the world health organization's recommendation. Thus, the Federal Ministry of Health of Ethiopia and different stakeholders should give more attention to improve the proportion of adequately iodized salt at the household level

Incidence and Predictors of Pre-Eclampsia Among Pregnant Women Attending Antenatal Care at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, North West Ethiopia: Prospective Cohort Study.

BackgroundPre-eclampsia is a pregnancy-induced hypertension that occurs after 20 weeks of gestation. It is the leading cause of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality globally, but it is higher in developing countries. In Ethiopia, conducting research on the incidence and predictors of pre-eclampsia is crucial due to the paucity of information.MethodsA prospective cohort study was undertaken using 242 pregnant women between November 1, 2018 and March 30, 2019 at Debre Markos Referral Hospital. All eligible women who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were included in this study. Data were entered into the epic-data Version 4.2 and analyzed using the STATA Version 14.0 software. The Cox-proportional hazard regression model was fitted and Cox-Snell residual test was used to assess the goodness of fit. Pre-eclampsia free survival time was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier survival curve. Both bivariable and multivariable Cox-proportional hazard regression models were fitted to identify predictors of pre-eclampsia.ResultsThe overall incidence rate of pre-eclampsia was 3.35 per 100 person-years. Having a pre-existing history of diabetes mellitus [AHR=2.7 (95% CI=1.43-8.81)], having a history of multiple pregnancy [AHR=3.4 (95% CI=2.8-6.9)] and being ≥35 years old age [AHR=2.5 (95% CI=1.42-3.54)] were the significant predictors of pre-eclampsia.ConclusionThe incidence of pre-eclampsia was high in this study. Having (pre-existing diabetes and multiple pregnancy) and being ≥35 years old age were the significant predictors of pre-eclampsia. Inspiring pregnant women's health-seeking behavior should provide a chance to diagnose pre-eclampsia early to prevent the medical complication of pre-eclampsia

Incidence and predictors of surgical site infection following cesarean section in North-west Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study.

BackgroundFollowing delivery by caesarean section, surgical site infection is the most common infectious complication. Despite a large number of caesarean sections performed at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, there was no study documenting the incidence of surgical site infection after caesarean section. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the incidence of surgical site infection following caesarean section at Debre-Markos Referral Hospital in Amhara region, North-west Ethiopia.MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted among 520 pregnant women who had a caesarean section between March 28, 2019 and August 31, 2019. Preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative data were collected using a standardized questionnaire. Data was entered using EpiData™ Entry Version 4.1 software and analyzed using R Version 3.6.1 software. A descriptive analysis was conducted using tables, interquartile ranges and median. The time to development of surgical site infection was estimated using Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox regression model for bivariable and multivariable analyses was done. Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported to show the strength of association.ResultThe mean age of the study cohort was 27.4 ± 4.8 years. The overall cumulative incidence of surgical site infection was 25.4% with an incidence of 11.7 (95% CI:9.8,13.9) per 1000 person/days. Not able to read and write (AHR = 1.30,95% CI:1.19,2.11), no antenatal care (AHR = 2.16, 95%CI:1.05,4.53), previous history of CS (AHR = 1.21, 95% CI:1.11,2.31), HIV positive (AHR = 1.39, 95% CI:1.21,2.57), emergency procedure (AHR = 1.13, 95% CI:1.11,2.43), vertical type of incision (AHR = 2.60, 95% CI:1.05,6.44), rupture of membrane (AHR = 1.50, 95% CI:1.31,1.64), multiple vaginal examination (AHR = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.71, 3.20) were significant predictors of surgical site infection in this study.ConclusionThis study concluded that the incidence of surgical site infection following caesarean section was relatively high compared to previous studies. Not able to read and write, have no ante natal care, previous history of caesarean section, HIV, emergency surgery, vertical type of incision, rupture of membranes before caesarean section, and multiple vaginal examinations were significant predictors of surgical site infection in this study. Therefore, intervention programs should focus on and address the identified factors to minimize and prevent the infection rate after caesarean section

The COVID-19 pandemic and healthcare systems in Africa: a scoping review of preparedness, impact and response.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems in both developed and developing nations alike. Africa has one of the weakest health systems globally, but there is limited evidence on how the region is prepared for, impacted by and responded to the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL to search peer-reviewed articles and Google, Google Scholar and preprint sites for grey literature. The scoping review captured studies on either preparedness or impacts or responses associated with COVID-19 or covering one or more of the three topics and guided by Arksey and O'Malley's methodological framework. The extracted information was documented following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension checklist for scoping reviews. Finally, the resulting data were thematically analysed. RESULTS: Twenty-two eligible studies, of which 6 reported on health system preparedness, 19 described the impacts of COVID-19 on access to general and essential health services and 7 focused on responses taken by the healthcare systems were included. The main setbacks in health system preparation included lack of available health services needed for the pandemic, inadequate resources and equipment, and limited testing ability and surge capacity for COVID-19. Reduced flow of patients and missing scheduled appointments were among the most common impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Health system responses identified in this review included the availability of telephone consultations, re-purposing of available services and establishment of isolation centres, and provisions of COVID-19 guidelines in some settings. CONCLUSIONS: The health systems in Africa were inadequately prepared for the pandemic, and its impact was substantial. Responses were slow and did not match the magnitude of the problem. Interventions that will improve and strengthen health system resilience and financing through local, national and global engagement should be prioritised

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact