Sources of skill in lake temperature, discharge and ice-off seasonal forecasting tools

Despite high potential benefits, the development of seasonal forecasting tools in the water sector has been slower than in other sectors. Here we assess the skill of seasonal forecasting tools for lakes and reservoirs set up at four sites in Australia and Europe. These tools consist of coupled hydrological catchment and lake models forced with seasonal meteorological forecast ensembles to provide probabilistic predictions of seasonal anomalies in water discharge, temperature and ice-off. Successful implementation requires a rigorous assessment of the tools' predictive skill and an apportionment of the predictability between legacy effects and input forcing data. To this end, models were forced with two meteorological datasets from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the seasonal forecasting system, SEAS5, with 3-month lead times and the ERA5 reanalysis. Historical skill was assessed by comparing both model outputs, i.e. seasonal lake hindcasts (forced with SEAS5), and pseudo-observations (forced with ERA5). The skill of the seasonal lake hindcasts was generally low although higher than the reference hindcasts, i.e. pseudo-observations, at some sites for certain combinations of season and variable. The SEAS5 meteorological predictions showed less skill than the lake hindcasts. In fact, skilful lake hindcasts identified for selected seasons and variables were not always synchronous with skilful SEAS5 meteorological hindcasts, raising questions on the source of the predictability. A set of sensitivity analyses showed that most of the forecasting skill originates from legacy effects, although during winter and spring in Norway some skill was coming from SEAS5 over the 3-month target season. When SEAS5 hindcasts were skilful, additional predictive skill originates from the interaction between legacy and SEAS5 skill. We conclude that lake forecasts forced with an ensemble of boundary conditions resampled from historical meteorology are currently likely to yield higher-quality forecasts in most cases.publishedVersio

Diagnosis and Treatment of Latent Tuberculosis Infection in Arthritis Patients Treated with Tumor Necrosis Factor Antagonists in Korea

Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) is essential for host defense against Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and the risk of reactivation of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) increases with anti-TNF therapy. This study estimated the prevalence of LTBI and evaluated the safety and completion rate of short-course therapy with isoniazid plus rifampin for 3 months to treat LTBI in a cohort of Korean arthritis patients before initiating anti-TNF therapy. We retrospectively studied the files of 112 consecutive patients to evaluate LTBI before starting anti-TNF drugs. Screening tests were performed, including a tuberculin skin test and chest radiography. LTBI treatment was indicated in 41 patients (37%). Of these, three patients refused the LTBI treatment. Of the 38 patients who underwent LTBI treatment, 36 (95%) took isoniazid plus rifampin for 3 months. Six patients (16%) showed transient elevations of liver enzymes during the LTBI treatment. Overall, 35 patients (92%) completed the LTBI treatment as planned. In conclusion, LTBI was diagnosed in one-third of Korean arthritis patients before initiating anti-TNF therapy. A high percentage of these patients completed 3 months of LTBI treatment with isoniazid plus rifampin without serious complications

In Vitro Neutralisation of Rotavirus Infection by Two Broadly Specific Recombinant Monovalent Llama-Derived Antibody Fragments

Rotavirus is the main cause of viral gastroenteritis in young children. Therefore, the development of inexpensive antiviral products for the prevention and/or treatment of rotavirus disease remains a priority. Previously we have shown that a recombinant monovalent antibody fragment (referred to as Anti-Rotavirus Proteins or ARP1) derived from a heavy chain antibody of a llama immunised with rotavirus was able to neutralise rotavirus infection in a mouse model system. In the present work we investigated the specificity and neutralising activity of two llama antibody fragments, ARP1 and ARP3, against 13 cell culture adapted rotavirus strains of diverse genotypes. In addition, immunocapture electron microscopy (IEM) was performed to determine binding of ARP1 to clinical isolates and cell culture adapted strains. ARP1 and ARP3 were able to neutralise a broad variety of rotavirus serotypes/genotypes in vitro, and in addition, IEM showed specific binding to a variety of cell adapted strains as well as strains from clinical specimens. These results indicated that these molecules could potentially be used as immunoprophylactic and/or immunotherapeutic products for the prevention and/or treatment of infection of a broad range of clinically relevant rotavirus strains

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide : the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.Peer reviewe

Isolation and Characterization of Intestinal Epithelial Cells from Normal and SIV-Infected Rhesus Macaques

Impairment of intestinal epithelial barriers contributes to the progression of HIV/SIV infection and leads to generalized HIV-induced immune-cell activation during chronic infection. Rhesus macaques are the major animal model for studying HIV pathogenesis. However, detailed characterization of isolated rhesus epithelial cells (ECs) from intestinal tissues is not well defined. It is also not well documented whether isolated ECs had any other cell contaminants from intestinal tissues during the time of processing that might hamper interpretation of EC preparations or cultures. In this study, we identify and characterize ECs based on flow cytometry and immunohistochemistry methods using various enzymatic and mechanical isolation techniques to enrich ECs from intestinal tissues. This study shows that normal healthy ECs differentially express HLA-DR, CD23, CD27, CD90, CD95 and IL-10R markers. Early apoptosis and upregulation of ICAM-1 and HLA-DR in intestinal ECs are thought to be the key features in SIV mediated enteropathy. The data suggest that intestinal ECs might be playing an important role in mucosal immune responses by regulating the expression of different important regulatory and adhesion molecules and their function