Modelling burned area in Africa

The simulation of current and projected wildfires is essential for predicting crucial aspects of vegetation patterns, biogeochemical cycling as well as pyrogenic emissions across the African continent. This study uses a data-driven approach to parameterize two burned area models applicable to dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) and Earth system models (ESMs). We restricted our analysis to variables for which either projections based on climate scenarios are available, or that are calculated by DVMs, and we consider a spatial scale of one degree as the scale typical for DVMs and ESMs. By using the African continent here as an example, an analogue approach could in principle be adopted for other regions, for global scale dynamic burned area modelling. <br><br> We used 9 years of data (2000–2008) for the variables: precipitation over the last dry season, the last wet season and averaged over the last 2 years, a fire-danger index (the Nesterov index), population density, and annual proportion of area burned derived from the MODIS MCD45A1 product. Two further variables, tree and herb cover were only available for 2001 as a remote sensing product. Since the effect of fires on vegetation depends strongly on burning conditions, the timing of wildfires is of high interest too, and we were able to relate the seasonal occurrence of wildfires to the daily Nesterov index. <br><br> We parameterized two generalized linear models (GLMs), one with the full variable set (model VC) and one considering only climate variables (model C). All introduced variables resulted in an increase in model performance. Model VC correctly predicts the spatial distribution and extent of fire prone areas though the total variability is underrepresented. Model VC has a much lower performance in both aspects (correlation coefficient of predicted and observed ratio of burned area: 0.71 for model VC and 0.58 for model C). We expect the remaining variability to be attributed to additional variables which are not available at a global scale and thus not incorporated in this study as well as its coarse resolution. An application of the models using climate hindcasts and projections ranging from 1980 to 2060 resulted in a strong decrease of burned area of ca. 20–25%. Since wildfires are an integral part of land use practices in Africa, their occurrence is an indicator of areas favourable for food production. In absence of other compensating land use changes, their projected decrease can hence be interpreted as a indicator for future loss of such areas

First assessment of the plant phenology index (PPI) for estimating gross primary productivity in African semi-arid ecosystems

The importance of semi-arid ecosystems in the global carbon cycle as sinks for CO2 emissions has recently been highlighted. Africa is a carbon sink and nearly half its area comprises arid and semi-arid ecosystems. However, there are uncertainties regarding CO2 fluxes for semi-arid ecosystems in Africa, particularly savannas and dry tropical woodlands. In order to improve on existing remote-sensing based methods for estimating carbon uptake across semi-arid Africa we applied and tested the recently developed plant phenology index (PPI). We developed a PPI-based model estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) that accounts for canopy water stress, and compared it against three other Earth observation-based GPP models: the temperature and greenness model, the greenness and radiation model and a light use efficiency model. The models were evaluated against in situ data from four semi-arid sites in Africa with varying tree canopy cover (3 to 65 percent). Evaluation results from the four GPP models showed reasonable agreement with in situ GPP measured from eddy covariance flux towers (EC GPP) based on coefficient of variation, root-mean-square error, and Bayesian information criterion. The PPI-based GPP model was able to capture the magnitude of EC GPP better than the other tested models. The results of this study show that a PPI-based GPP model is a promising tool for the estimation of GPP in the semi-arid ecosystems of Africa.Comment: Accepted manuscript; 12 pages, 4 tables, 9 figure

Storage effects: the relationship between the hydrological dynamics of small infield pools and plant functional groups

Small infield pools are important habitats. But, the properties that make them attractive for several wetland species as well as the traits which allow species to survive in such high dynamical systems are largely unknown. I investigated the habitat quality with a time series model which requires only the climatic time series evapotranspiration and precipitation and an observed daily water level time series. Further, I developed transfer function to describe mean drying up frequencies and mean spring high water level out of short time measurements. The results show a decrease in the minimum water level and an increase in the yearly water dynamic caused by rising temperatures in the study area, indicating a change in the habitat quality by climate changes. I developed a new method to calculate the responses of plant species with certain traits according to the habitat quality. The resulting PFGs are characterised by different storage, competition, and adaptation strategies

The interannual variability of Africa's ecosystem productivity: a multi-model analysis

We are comparing spatially explicit process-model based estimates of the terrestrial carbon balance and its components over Africa and confront them with remote sensing based proxies of vegetation productivity and atmospheric inversions of land-atmosphere net carbon exchange. Particular emphasis is on characterizing the patterns of interannual variability of carbon fluxes and analyzing the factors and processes responsible for it. For this purpose simulations with the terrestrial biosphere models ORCHIDEE, LPJ-DGVM, LPJ-Guess and JULES have been performed using a standardized modeling protocol and a uniform set of corrected climate forcing data. While the models differ concerning the absolute magnitude of carbon fluxes, we find several robust patterns of interannual variability among the models. Models exhibit largest interannual variability in southern and eastern Africa, regions which are primarily covered by herbaceous vegetation. Interannual variability of the net carbon balance appears to be more strongly influenced by gross primary production than by ecosystem respiration. A principal component analysis indicates that moisture is the main driving factor of interannual gross primary production variability for those regions. On the contrary in a large part of the inner tropics radiation appears to be limiting in two models. These patterns are corroborated by remotely sensed vegetation properties from the SeaWiFS satellite sensor. Inverse atmospheric modeling estimates of surface carbon fluxes are less conclusive at this point, implying the need for a denser network of observation stations over Africa.JRC.DDG.H.3-Global environement monitorin

Earlier occurrence and increased explanatory power of climate for the first incidence of potato late blight caused by Phytophthora infestans in Fennoscandia

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Музично-етнографічні польові дослідження (на прикладі обстеження історичної Хотинщини)

The author of the article researches the approaches of musical-ethnographic work, its methods and goals, as well as the choice of the specific territory and its exploration defined by them. The author comments on his intention to examine the area of Khotyn, which now is a part of Chernivtsy region; explains the methods of examining the territory. Pluses and minuses of the existing song collections dedicated to the given district are under consideration in this article. In conclusion short information about Northern Bessarabia and its population is given

LPJ-GM 1.0: simulating migration efficiently in a dynamic vegetation model

Dynamic global vegetation models are a common tool to assess the effect of climate and land use change on vegetation. Though most applications of dynamic global vegetation models use plant functional types, some also simulate species occurrences. While the current development aims to include more processes, e.g. the nitrogen cycle, the models still typically assume an ample seed supply allowing all species to establish once the climate conditions are suitable. Pollen studies have shown that a number of plant species lag behind in occupying climatological suitable areas (e.g. after a change in the climate) as they need to arrive at and establish in the newly suitable areas. Previous attempts to implement migration in dynamic vegetation models have allowed for the simulation of either only small areas or have been implemented as a post-process, not allowing for feedbacks within the vegetation. Here we present two novel methods simulating migrating and interacting tree species which have the potential to be used for simulations of large areas. Both distribute seeds between grid cells, leading to individual establishment. The first method uses an approach based on fast Fourier transforms, while in the second approach we iteratively shift the seed production matrix and disperse seeds with a given probability. While the former method is computationally faster, it does not allow for modification of the seed dispersal kernel parameters with respect to terrain features, which the latter method allows. We evaluate the increase in computational demand of both methods. Since dispersal acts at a scale no larger than 1&thinsp;km, all dispersal simulations need to be performed at maximum at that scale. However, with the currently available computational power it is not feasible to simulate the local vegetation dynamics of a large area at that scale. We present an option to decrease the required computational costs through a reduction in the number of grid cells for which the local dynamics are simulated only along migration transects. Evaluation of species patterns and migration speeds shows that simulating along transects reduces migration speed, and both methods applied on the transects produce reasonable results. Furthermore, using the migration transects, both methods are sufficiently computationally efficient to allow for large-scale DGVM simulations with migration.</p

A harmonized and spatially explicit dataset from 16 million payments from the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy for 2015

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is the largest budget item in the European Union, but varied data reporting hampers holistic analysis. Here we have assembled the first dataset to our knowledge to report individual CAP payments by standardized CAP funding measures and geolocation. We created this dataset by translating, geolocating to the county or province (NUTS3) level, and consistently harmonizing payment measures for over 16 million payments from 2015, originally reported by EU member states and compiled by the Open Knowledge Foundation Germany. This dataset and code allow in-depth analysis of over V60 billion in public spending by purpose and location for the first time, which enables both individual payment tracing and analysis by aggregation. These data are representative of the distribution of annual CAP payments from 2014 to 2020 and are of interest to researchers, policy makers, non-governmental organizations, and journalists for evaluating the distribution and impacts of CAP spending

Approaching the potential of model-data comparisons of global land carbon storage

Abstract Carbon storage dynamics in vegetation and soil are determined by the balance of carbon influx and turnover. Estimates of these opposing fluxes differ markedly among different empirical datasets and models leading to uncertainty and divergent trends. To trace the origin of such discrepancies through time and across major biomes and climatic regions, we used a model-data fusion framework. The framework emulates carbon cycling and its component processes in a global dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, and preserves the model-simulated pools and fluxes in space and time. Thus, it allows us to replace simulated carbon influx and turnover with estimates derived from empirical data, bringing together the strength of the model in representing processes, with the richness of observational data informing the estimations. The resulting vegetation and soil carbon storage and global land carbon fluxes were compared to independent empirical datasets. Results show model-data agreement comparable to, or even better than, the agreement between independent empirical datasets. This suggests that only marginal improvement in land carbon cycle simulations can be gained from comparisons of models with current-generation datasets on vegetation and soil carbon. Consequently, we recommend that model skill should be assessed relative to reference data uncertainty in future model evaluation studies