Early Warning of Drought in Europe

The performances of the first month of the ECMWF probabilistic extended forecast and the seasonal forecast to predict droughts over Europe are compared. The Standardized Precipitation Index is used to quantify droughts. It can be shown that on average the extended forecast has higher skill than the seasonal forecast whilst both outperform climatology. No significant spatial or temporal patterns can be observed but the scores are improved when we focus on large scale droughts. This report further analyses several different methods to convert the probabilistic forecasts of SPI into a Boolean drought warning. It can be demonstrated that methodologies which convert low percentiles of the forecasted cumulative distribution function of SPI into warnings are superior in comparison to alternatives such as the mean or the median of the ensemble. This work demonstrates that around 40% of droughts in Europe are correctly forecasted one month in advance. Nevertheless, due to the lack of the significant difference between the distributions of the ensemble members for false alarms or misses on one hand side and correct forecasts on the other hand side, it is not yet possible to quantify the uncertainty of the drought forecasts.JRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managemen

Recent climatological trend of the Saharan heat low and its impact on the West African climate

The Saharan heat low (SHL) plays a pivotal role in the West African monsoon system in spring and summer. The recent trend in SHL activity has been analysed using two sets of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model reanalyses and Atmospheric Models Intercomparison Project simulations from 15 climate models performed in the framework of the 5th Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) exercise. A local increase of temperature in the Sahara during the 90s is found in the two sets of NWP models temperature. This increase is stronger within the SHL region than over the surrounding areas. Using different temporal filters (under 25 days, 25–100 days and above 300 days), we show that this is accompanied by a slight but widespread increase of temperature, and a change in the filtered signal under 25 days during the transition period of the 90s. We also show that SHL pulsations occurring at different time scales impact the West Africa climate on a variety of spatial scales, from the regional scale (for the high band pass) to the synoptic scale (for the low band pass signal). Despite a large variability in the temporal trends for 15 climate models from the CMIP5 project, the warming trend in the 90s is observed in the models ensemble mean. Nevertheless, large discrepancies are found between the NWP models reanalyses and the climate model simulations regarding the spatial and temporal evolutions of the SHL as well as its impact on West African climate at the different time scales. These comparisons also reveal that climate models represent the West African monsoon interactions with SHL pulsations quite differently. We provide recommendations to use some of them depending on the time scales of the processes at play (synoptic, seasonal, interannual) and based on key SHL metrics (location, mean intensity, global trend, interaction with the West African monsoon dynamics).JRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managemen

On the Use of the eStation Developed in the GMES & Africa EU Project: Results from the User Survey

In 2007, at the 2nd Africa-EU Summit, the development and implementation of earth observation based services to support sustainable development in Africa was agreed. A joint Africa-EU strategy created a framework for cooperation to this end called GMES & Africa. This cooperation aims to produce products and services relevant to the needs of Africans and implemented by African institutions. It is based in particular on the European Copernicus program. The themes covered by the cooperation include natural resource management, marine and coastal areas, water resource management, climate variability and change, disaster risk reduction and food security. Building on its early involvement in the previous projects, the Joint Research Centre has developed an operational and distributable open-source data processing tool, called eStation. One year before the end of the first phase of the project, a full survey of eStation users was conducted. The objective of the survey was to get a full overview of the use, strength, weakness and way to improve the eStation in an operational context. This study presents the main results of the survey. It identifies who are the users, what their operational tasks are and how they communicate the information to decision makers. In addition, the use of the station is described, its strengths and weaknesses are identified as well as the technical and thematic difficulties encountered. The survey underlines the importance of maintaining a constant dialogue between users and developers in order to offer technical and thematic supports to improve the efficiency of the use of the tools. This can be done by organising training and workshops and is essential for the proper use of the tools and products

Characterization of dust emission from alluvial sources using aircraft observations and high-resolution modeling

International audienceWe investigate mineral dust emission from alluvial sediments within the upland region in northern Mauritania in the vicinity of a decaying nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ). For the first time, the impact of valleys that are embedded in a rather homogeneous surrounding is investigated with regard to their role as dust source. Measures for local atmospheric dust burden were retrieved from airborne observations, satellite observations, and model simulations and analyzed in order to provide complementary information at different horizontal scales. Observations by the LEANDRE Nouvelle Generation backscatter lidar system flying aboard the French Falcon 20 aircraft were taken along five parallel flight legs perpendicular to the orientation of the main valley system dominating the topography of the study area. Results from a comparison of lidar-derived extinction coefficients with topography and aerial photographs confirm the relevance of (1) alluvial sediments at the valley bottoms as a dust source, and (2) the break-down of the nocturnal LLJ as a trigger for dust emission in this region. An evaluation of the AROME regional model, forecasting dust at high resolution (5 km grid), points toward an under-representation of alluvial dust sources in this region. This is also evident from simulations by the MesoNH research model. Although MesoNH simulations show higher dust loadings than AROME, which are more comparable to the observations, both models underestimate the dust concentrations within the boundary layer compared to lidar observations. A sensitivity study on the impact of horizontal grid spacing (5 km versus 1 km) highlights the importance of spatial resolution on simulated dust loadings

Fennec dust forecast intercomparison over the Sahara in June 2011

International audienceIn the framework of the Fennec international programme , a field campaign was conducted in June 2011 over the western Sahara. It led to the first observational data set ever obtained that documents the dynamics, thermodynam-ics and composition of the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL) under the influence of the heat low. In support to the aircraft operation, four dust forecasts were run daily at low and high resolutions with convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting models, respectively. The unique airborne and ground-based data sets allowed the first ever intercomparison of dust forecasts over the western Sahara. At monthly scale, large aerosol optical depths (AODs) were forecast over the Sahara, a feature observed by satellite retrievals but with different magnitudes. The AOD intensity was correctly predicted by the high-resolution models, while it was underestimated by the low-resolution models. This was partly because of the generation of strong near-surface wind associated with thunderstorm-related density currents that could only be reproduced by models representing con-vection explicitly. Such models yield emissions mainly in the afternoon that dominate the total emission over the western fringes of the Adrar des Iforas and the Aïr Mountains in the high-resolution forecasts. Over the western Sahara, where the harmattan contributes up to 80 % of dust emission, all the models were successful in forecasting the deep well-mixed SABL. Some of them, however, missed the large near-surface dust concentration generated by density currents and low-level winds. This feature, observed repeatedly by the airborne lidar, was partly forecast by one high-resolution model only

Etude des relations Onde - Convection - Pluie et influence de la variabilité du flux de mousson en Afrique de l'Ouest

In the West Africa area and especially over the sahel, climate changing possess a great impact on the populationn where agricultural and breeding economies are exposed to drought threat. Therefore, the understanding of climate behavior and its variability, particulary the knowledge of atmospheric perturbations and theirs consequences on the rainfall dynamical processes are very important to define accomodate strategies.This thesis poit out rainfall variability due to atmospheric perturbations. The aims of this study are to understand how the perturbations in the 700 hPa wind field, the Africa Easterly Waves (AEWs) can modulate convective activity and rainfall, and the effects of these AEWs in the intra seasonal and interannal tie scales.The first part of this thesis describes the state of art of the West African climate. In the second part, the AEWs detection methodology, as well as its main characteristics are presented. In the third part, the inter annual variability of the rainfall is analysed by signal treatment method. The fourth part shows the interaction between AEWs convective activity and rainfall. The impact of AEWs sector exibits a great spatial variability. This study is extended by the local and large scale effects of AEWs. The low level conditions appear important to generate both convection and rainfall. In the last part, the intra seasonal variability of the Monsoon flux is analysed. The impact of AEWs and convection on these pulsations are shown.Les variations climatiques en Afrique de l'Ouest ont un impact parfois catastrophique, particuliérement au Sahel ou les populations sont exposées aux aléas des ressources en eau. Cette thèse s'inscrit dans la recherche des différents modes de variabilités atmosphèrique et de leurs conséquences sur les processus qui générent les pluies, afin de mieux apprehender le climat et ses variabilités dans cette région. Ce travail porte sur la part de la variabilité des précipitations au Sahel qui peut être expliquée par la variabilité atmosphérique. L'objectif principal est de comprendre comment les perturbations du champ de vent à 700 hPa - les ondes d'est africaines (AEWs) - agissent sur la convectionqui est elle meme à l'origine des précipitations. Après avoir exposé les connaissances actuelles de la climatologie en Afrique de l'Ouest, et expliqué la méthodologie développée pour étudier les ondes d'est, la variabilité des précipitations est étudiée à différentes échelles. La modulation de la convection et des précipitations par les ondes est ensuite traitée et permet de distinguer des secteurs propices aux fortes précipitations, ou au contraire inhibiteurs. L'impact des ondes sur la dynamique et la thermodynamique atmosphérique est également abordé, en particulier dans les basses couches atmosphériques. Un autre aspect original de cette thèse est d'étudier comment les ondes d'est s'insèrent dans la variabilité interannuelle et intra saisonnière du flux de mousson. Après avoir mis en évidence des phases actives et inactives du flux de mousson, le comportement des ondes, de la convection et des précipitations est discriminé en fonction des phases de l'onde

Warming trends: Saharan desert warming

A key element of the West Africa monsoon is changing faster than in the surrounding areas but the reasons is unknown. Now research assesses the specific behaviour of the temperature over the Saharan desert.JRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managemen

Dynamical study of three African Easterly Waves in September 2021

International audienceThree convectively active African easterly waves (AEWs) that propagated south of the African easterly jet were observed over the northeast Atlantic Ocean in September 2021. Their evolution is studied using a suite of theoretical frameworks, as well as the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecast reanalyses and satellite‐derived brightness temperature observations. The environment of these AEWs was sampled during the Cloud–Atmospheric Dynamics–Dust Interactions in West Africa campaign near Cape Verde with the goal to assess their potential for developing into tropical cyclones. We highlight the processes that inhibited the development of the first AEW (which evolved into tropical disturbance Pierre‐Henri) and that played a role in the development of the later two into tropical storms Rose and Peter on September 19, 2021. The three AEWs developed a so‐called “marsupial protective” pouch. For Peter and Rose, the pouch was associated with a vertically aligned vortex at low levels and efficiently protected the convective systems inside from dry and dusty air intrusion. The development of this low‐level vortex is associated with an interaction with the monsoon trough for Rose and with a vorticity center associated with a wave propagating north of the African easterly jet (AEJ) in the case of Peter. The presence of a dust flux toward the convective core near the surface is highlighted for Rose and Peter in spite of the presence of the protective marsupial pouch. On the other hand, Pierre‐Henri interacted positively with both the monsoon trough and an AEW north of the AEJ but failed to develop into a tropical cyclone. The wave north of the AEJ brought Saharan air layer air masses inside the pouch that led to a drying of the circulation that may explain the decrease in convective activity

Early warning of drought in Europe using the Monthly Ensemble System from ECMWF

Timely forecasts of the onset or possible evolution of droughts are an important contribution to mitigate their manifold negative effects. In this paper we therefore analyse and compare the performance of the first month of the probabilistic extended range forecast and of the seasonal forecast from ECMWF in predicting droughts over the European continent. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to quantify the onset and severity of droughts. It can be shown that on average the extended range forecast has greater skill than the seasonal forecast whilst both outperform climatology. No significant spatial or temporal patterns can be observed but the scores are improved when focussing on large-scale droughts. In a second step we then analyse several different methods to convert the probabilistic forecasts of SPI into a Boolean drought warning. It can be demonstrated that methodologies which convert low percentiles of the forecasted SPI cumulative distribution function into warnings are superior in comparison with alternatives such as the mean or the median of the ensemble. The paper demonstrates that up to 40% of droughts are correctly forecasted one month in advance. Nevertheless, during false alarms or misses, we did not find significant differences in the distribution of the ensemble members that would allow for a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty.JRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managemen