On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe

An early warning system for drought events can provide valuable information for decision makers dealing with water resources management and international aid. However, predicting such extreme events is still a big challenge. In this study, we compare two approaches for drought predictions based on forecasted precipitation derived from the Ensemble extended forecast model (ENS) of the ECMWF, and on forecasted monthly occurrence anomalies of weather regimes (MOAWRs), also derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that the MOAWRs approach outperforms the one based on forecasted precipitation in winter in the north-eastern parts of the European continent, where more than 65&thinsp;% of droughts are detected 1 month in advance. The approach based on forecasted precipitation achieves better performance in predicting drought events in central and eastern Europe in both spring and summer, when the local atmospheric forcing could be the key driver of the precipitation. Sensitivity tests also reveal the challenges in predicting small-scale droughts and drought onsets at longer lead times. Finally, the results show that the ENS model of the ECMWF successfully represents most of the observed linkages between large-scale atmospheric patterns, depicted by the weather regimes and drought events over Europe.</p

Early warning of drought in Europe using the monthly ensemble system from ECMWF

Abstract. Timely forecasts of the onset or possible evolution of droughts are an important contribution to mitigate their manifold negative effects. In this paper we therefore analyse and compare the performance of the first month of the probabilistic extended range forecast and of the seasonal forecast from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in predicting droughts over the European continent. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-1) is used to quantify the onset or likely evolution of ongoing droughts for the next month. It can be shown that on average the extended range forecast has greater skill than the seasonal forecast, whilst both outperform climatology. No significant spatial or temporal patterns can be observed, but the scores are improved when focussing on large-scale droughts. In a second step we then analyse several different methods to convert the probabilistic forecasts of SPI into a Boolean drought warning. It can be demonstrated that methodologies which convert low percentiles of the forecasted SPI cumulative distribution function into warnings are superior in comparison with alternatives such as the mean or the median of the ensemble. The paper demonstrates that up to 40 % of droughts are correctly forecasted one month in advance. Nevertheless, during false alarms or misses, we did not find significant differences in the distribution of the ensemble members that would allow for a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty

Identification and quantification of dust aerosol emission over the Sahara from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations

Dust aerosols are an important component of the climate system and a challenge to incorporate into weather and climate models. Information on the location and magnitude of dust emission remains a key information gap to inform model development. Inadequate surface observations ensure that satellite data remain the primary source of this information over extensive and remote desert regions. Here, we develop estimates of the relative magnitude of active dust emission over the Sahara desert based on data from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). Utilising the unique vertical profile of aerosol characteristics provided by CALIOP our algorithm identifies emission from aerosol extinction and lidar backscatter in the near surface layers. From the long-term CALIOP archive of day and night-time orbits over 2006–13 we construct coarse resolution maps of a new dust emission index (DEI) for the Sahara desert during the peak summer dust season (June to September). The spatial structure of DEI indicates highest emission over a broad zone focused on the border regions of Southern Algeria, Northern Mali and northwest Niger, displaced substantially (∼7°) to the east of the mean maximum in satellite-derived aerosol optical depth. In this region night-time emission exceeds that during the day. The DEI maps substantially corroborate recently derived dust source frequency count maps based on back-tracking plumes in high temporal resolution SEVIRI imagery. As such, a convergence of evidence from multiple satellite data sources using independent methods provides an increasingly robust picture of Saharan dust emission sources. Various caveats are considered. As such, quantitative estimates of dust emission may require a synergistic combined multi-sensor analysis

Respective impacts of Arctic sea ice decline and increasing greenhouse gases concentration on Sahel precipitation

The impact of climate change on Sahel precipitation is uncertain and has to be widely documented. Recently, it has been shown that Arctic sea ice loss leverages the global warming effects worldwide, suggesting a potential impact of Arctic sea ice decline on tropical regions. However, defining the specific roles of increasing greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration and declining Arctic sea ice extent on Sahel climate is not straightforward since the former impacts the latter. We avoid this dependency by analysing idealized experiments performed with the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. Results show that the increase in GHG concentration explains most of the Sahel precipitation change. We found that the impact due to Arctic sea ice loss depends on the level of atmospheric GHG concentration. When the GHG concentration is relatively low (values representative of 1980s), then the impact is moderate over the Sahel. However, when the concentration in GHG is levelled up, then Arctic sea ice loss leads to increased Sahel precipitation. In this particular case the ocean-land meridional gradient of temperature strengthens, allowing a more intense monsoon circulation. We linked the non-linearity of Arctic sea ice decline impact with differences in temperature and sea level pressure changes over the North Atlantic Ocean. We argue that the impact of the Arctic sea ice loss will become more relevant with time, in the context of climate change

Future evolution of the Sahel precipitation zonal contrast in CESM1

The main focus of this study is the zonal contrast of the Sahel precipitation shown in the CMIP5 climate projections: precipitation decreases over the western Sahel (i.e., Senegal and western Mali) and increases over the central Sahel (i.e., eastern Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger). This zonal contrast in future precipitation change is a robust model response to climate change but suffers from a lack of an explanation. To this aim, we study the impact of current and future climate change on Sahel precipitation by using the Large Ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). In CESM1, global warming leads to a strengthening of the zonal contrast, as shown by the difference between the 2060–2099 period (under a high emission scenario) and the 1960–1999 period (under the historical forcing). The zonal contrast is associated with dynamic shifts in the atmospheric circulation. We show that, in absence of a forced response, that is, when only accounting for internal climate variability, the zonal contrast is associated with the Pacific and the tropical Atlantic oceans variability. However, future patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are not necessary to explaining the projected strengthening of the zonal contrast. The mechanisms underlying the simulated changes are elucidated by analysing a set of CMIP5 idealised simulations. We show the increase in precipitation over the central Sahel to be mostly associated with the surface warming over northern Africa, which favour the displacement of the monsoon cell northwards. Over the western Sahel, the decrease in Sahel precipitation is associated with a southward shift of the monsoon circulation, and is mostly due to the warming of the SST. These two mechanisms allow explaining the zonal contrast in precipitation change

Regional-scale convection patterns during strong and weak phases of the Saharan heat low

The West African heat low, which is defined as a thermal depression generally below 700 hPa over West Africa, is stationary over the Sahara during the summer season and is often referred to as the Saharan heat low (SHL). This SHL displays synoptic and intra-seasonal pulsations of its intensity on time scales under 60 days. In this study, we analyse the regional-scale pattern of low troposphere dynamics and convective activity associated with weak and strong phases of the SHL during the summer, using 18 years (1984-2001) of concomitant European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts re-analysis data and satellite observations of brightness temperature provided by the European Union-funded Cloud Archive User Service. Strong SHL phases, defined by an increase of low-level atmospheric thickness, are accompanied by (1) a positive anomaly of temperature in the low layers, (2) a strengthening of the monsoon flow, (3) both a negative anomaly of the divergence flux and an enhancement of the moisture advection over the central Sahel, (4) an intensification of the African easterly jet and (5) enhanced upward vertical motions located south of the inter-tropical discontinuity (ITD). These conditions appear to be favourable for the occurrence of convection over the central Sahel. The strongest, most widespread convective activity over the central and eastern Sahel occurs on the day when the SHL intensity is the strongest. In contrast, a significant decrease of the convective activity was detected over Senegal and to the West of the Jos Plateau. Opposite patterns are found during weak SHL phases, with a negative anomaly of convection over the central and eastern Sahel connected with anomalous subsidence south of the ITD and a negative moisture advection anomaly. Conversely, convection is seen to be enhanced along the Atlantic coast and particularly over Senegal