On the errors involved in ice-thickness estimates III:Error in volume

ABSTRACTThis paper is the third (Paper III) in a set of studies of the errors involved in the estimate of ice thickness and ice volume. Here we present a methodology to estimate the error in the calculation of the volume of an ice mass from an ice-thickness DEM. We consider the two main error sources: the ice-thickness error at each DEM grid point and the uncertainty in the boundary delineation. To accurately estimate the volume error due to the error in thickness of the DEM, it is crucial to determine the degree of correlation among the ice-thickness errors at the grid points. We find that the two-dimensional integral range, which represents the equivalent area of influence of each independent value, allows estimation of the equivalent number of independent values of error within the DEM. Hence, it provides an easy way to obtain the volume error resulting from the uncertainty in ice thickness of a DEM. We show that the volume error arising from the uncertainty in boundary delineation, often neglected in the literature, can be of the same order of magnitude as the volume error resulting from ice-thickness errors. We illustrate our methodology through the case study of Werenskioldbreen, Svalbard.</jats:p

On the errors involved in ice-thickness estimates II:Errors in digital elevation models of ice thickness

ABSTRACTThis paper is the second (Paper II) in a set of studies concerning the errors involved in the estimate of ice thickness and ice volume. Here we present a detailed analysis of the errors involved in the generation of ice-thickness DEMs constructed, most often, from GPR data, complemented by boundary data and sometimes, additional synthetic data arising from estimates based on theoretical considerations supported by independent data. We describe a complete methodology of error analysis that, starting from the errors in the data, propagates them to the grid nodes. In turn, the interpolation error at the grid nodes is calculated using a novel procedure that also provides an estimate of the bias introduced by the interpolation process. Finally, both errors are combined at the grid nodes to produce a gridpoint-dependent error estimate, which is complemented by an overall error estimate providing an assessment of the quality of the DEM. This methodology is illustrated with the case study of Werenskioldbreen, a land-terminating polythermal glacier in Svalbard.</jats:p

Effects of recent cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula on snow density and surface mass balance

The Antarctic Peninsula region has experienced a recent cooling for about 15 years since the beginning of the 21st century. In Livingston Island, this cooling has been of 0.8°C over the 12-yr period 2004–2016, and of 1.0°C for the summer average temperatures over the same period. In this paper, we analyse whether this observed cooling has implied a significant change in the density of the snowpack covering Hurd and Johnsons glaciers, and whether such a density change has had, by itself, a noticeable impact in the calculated surface mass balance. Our results indicate a decrease in the snow density by 22 kg m-3 over the study period. The density changes are shown to be correlated with the summer temperature changes. We show that this observed decrease in density does not have an appreciable effect on the calculated surface mass balance, as the corresponding changes are below the usual error range of the surface mass balance estimates. This relieves us from the need of detailed and time-consuming snow density measurements at every mass-balance campaign.This research was funded by the Spanish State Plan for Research and Development projects CTM2014-56473-R and CTM2017-84441-R

The ice-free topography of Svalbard

We present a first version of the Svalbard ice-free topography (SVIFT1.0) using a mass-conserving approach for mapping glacier ice thickness. SVIFT1.0 is informed by more than 900’000 point-measurements of glacier thickness, totalling almost 8’300 km of thickness profiles. It is publicly available for download. Our estimate for the total ice volume is 6’253km3, equivalent to 1.6cm sea-level rise. The thickness map suggests that 13% of the glacierised area is grounded below sea-level. Thickness values are provided together with a map of error estimates that comprise uncertainties in the thickness surveys as well as in other input variables. Aggregated error estimates are used to define a likely ice-volume range of 5’200-7’400km3. The ice-front thickness of marine-terminating glaciers is a key quantity for ice-loss attribution because it controls the potential ice discharge by iceberg calving into the ocean. We find a mean ice-front thickness of 133m for the archipelago

A 14 year dataset of in situ glacier surface velocities for a tidewater and a land-terminating glacier in Livingston Island, Antarctica

We present a 14-year record of in situ glacier surface velocities determined by repeated global navigation satellite system (GNSS) measurements in a dense network of 52 stakes distributed across two glaciers, Johnsons (tidewater) and Hurd (land-terminating), located on Livingston Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica. The measurements cover the time period 2000–2013 and were collected at the beginning and end of each austral summer season. A second-degree polynomial approximation is fitted to each stake position, which allows estimating the approximate positions and associated velocities at intermediate times. This dataset is useful as input data for numerical models of glacier dynamics or for the calibration and validation of remotely sensed velocities for a region where very scarce in situ glacier surface velocity measurements have been available so far. The link to the data repository is as follows: http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.846791

Modeling the Controls on the Front Position of a Tidewater Glacier in Svalbard

Calving is an important mass-loss process at ice sheet and marine-terminating glacier margins, but identifying and quantifying its principal driving mechanisms remains challenging. Hansbreen is a grounded tidewater glacier in southern Spitsbergen, Svalbard, with a rich history of field and remote sensing observations. The available data make this glacier suitable for evaluating mechanisms and controls on calving, some of which are considered in this paper. We use a full-Stokes thermomechanical 2D flow model (Elmer/Ice), paired with a crevasse-depth calving criterion, to estimate Hansbreen's front position at a weekly time resolution. The basal sliding coefficient is re-calibrated every 4 weeks by solving an inverse model. We investigate the possible role of backpressure at the front (a function of ice mélange concentration) and the depth of water filling crevasses by examining the model's ability to reproduce the observed seasonal cycles of terminus advance and retreat. Our results suggest that the ice-mélange pressure plays an important role in the seasonal advance and retreat of the ice front, and that the crevasse-depth calving criterion, when driven by modeled surface meltwater, closely replicates observed variations in terminus position. These results suggest that tidewater glacier behavior is influenced by both oceanic and atmospheric processes, and that neither of them should be ignored

Ground-penetrating radar studies in Svalbard aimed to the calculation of the ice volume of its glaciers

During the period 1999-2014, the Group of Numerical Simulation in Sciences and Engineering of Universidad Politécnica de Madrid carried out many ground-penetrating radar campaigns in Svalbard, aimed to the study of glacier ice-thickness and the physical properties of glacier ice. The regions covered were Nordenskiöld Land, Wedel Jarlsberg Land, Sabine Land and Nordaustlandet. We here present a review of these works, focused on the aspects related to the estimate of the volume of individual glaciers and its extrapolation to the entire set of Svalbard glaciers, for which the authors estimate a total volume of 6700±835 km3, o 17±2 mm in sea-level equivalent.Durante el periodo 1999-2014, el grupo de Simulación Numérica en Ciencias e Ingeniería de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid llevó a cabo numerosas campañas de georradar en Svalbard orientadas al estudio del espesor y las propiedades físicas del hielo de sus glaciares. Las regiones cubiertas abarcaron Nordenskiöld Land, Wedel Jarlsberg Land, Sabine Land y Nordaustlandet. Se presenta en este artículo una revisión de estos trabajos, centrada en los aspectos relativos al cálculo del volumen de hielo de glaciares individuales y su extrapolación al conjunto de glaciares de Svalbard, para el que los autores estiman un volumen de hielo de 6700±835 km3, o 17±2 mm en equivalente de nivel del mar