A common framework for approaches to extreme event attribution

The extent to which a given extreme weather or climate event is attributable to anthropogenic climate change is a question of considerable public interest. From a scientific perspective, the question can be framed in various ways, and the answer depends very much on the framing. One such framing is a risk-based approach, which answers the question probabilistically, in terms of a change in likelihood of a class of event similar to the one in question, and natural variability is treated as noise. A rather different framing is a storyline approach, which examines the role of the various factors contributing to the event as it unfolded, including the anomalous aspects of natural variability, and answers the question deterministically. It is argued that these two apparently irreconcilable approaches can be viewed within a common framework, where the most useful level of conditioning will depend on the question being asked and the uncertainties involved

Salicornia as a crop plant in temperate regions: selection of genetically characterized ecotypes and optimization of their cultivation conditions

Rising sea levels and salinization of groundwater due to global climate change result in fast dwindling sources of fresh water. Therefore it is important to find alternatives to grow food crops and vegetables. Halophytes are naturally evolved salt-tolerant plants that are adapted to grow in environments that inhibit the growth of most glycophytic crop plants substantially. Members of the Salicornioideae are promising candidates for saline agriculture due to their high tolerance to salinity. Our aim was to develop genetically characterized lines of Salicornia and Sarcocornia for further breeding and to determine optimal cultivation conditions. To obtain a large and diverse genetic pool, seeds were collected from different countries and ecological conditions. The External Transcribed Spacer (ETS) sequence of 62 Salicornia and Sarcocornia accessions was analysed: ETS sequence data showed a clear distinction between the two genera and between different Salicornia taxa. However, in some cases the ETS was not sufficiently variable to resolve morphologically distinct species. For the determination of optimal cultivation conditions, experiments on germination, seedling establishment and growth to a harvestable size were performed using different accessions of Salicornia spp. Experiments revealed that the percentage germination was greatest at lower salinities and with temperatures of 20/10˚C (day/night). Salicornia spp. produced more harvestable biomass In hydroponic culture than in sand culture, but the nutrient concentration requires optimization as hydroponically grown plants showed symptoms of stress. Salicornia ramosissima produced more harvestable biomass than S. dolichostachya in artificial sea water containing 257 mM NaCl. Based on preliminary tests on ease of cultivation, gain in biomass, morphology and taste, S. dolichostachya was investigated in more detail and the optimal salinity for seedling establishment found to be 100 mM. Harvesting of S. dolichostachya twice in a growing season was successful but the interval between the harvests needs to be optimized to maximise biomass production

A multifractal approach to space-filling recovery for PET quantification.

Purpose: A new image-based methodology is developed for estimating the apparent space-filling properties of an object of interest in PET imaging without need for a robust segmentation step and used to recover accurate estimates of total lesion activity (TLA). Methods: A multifractal approach and the fractal dimension are proposed to recover the apparent space-filling index of a lesion (tumor volume, TV) embedded in nonzero background. A practical implementation is proposed, and the index is subsequently used with mean standardized uptake value (SUVmean) to correct TLA estimates obtained from approximate lesion contours. The methodology is illustrated on fractal and synthetic objects contaminated by partial volume effects (PVEs), validated on realistic 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose PET simulations and tested for its robustness using a clinical 18F-fluorothymidine PET test-retest dataset. Results: TLA estimates were stable for a range of resolutions typical in PET oncology (4-6 mm). By contrast, the space-filling index and intensity estimates were resolution dependent. TLA was generally recovered within 15% of ground truth on postfiltered PET images affected by PVEs. Volumes were recovered within 15% variability in the repeatability study. Results indicated that TLA is a more robust index than other traditional metrics such as SUVmean or TV measurements across imaging protocols. Conclusions: The fractal procedure reported here is proposed as a simple and effective computational alternative to existing methodologies which require the incorporation of image preprocessing steps (i.e., partial volume correction and automatic segmentation) prior to quantification

Corrigendum to: Cohort profile: Extended Cohort for E-health, Environment and DNA (EXCEED)

This is a correction to: International Journal of Epidemiology, Volume 48, Issue 3, June 2019, Pages 678–679j, https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyz07

Genome-wide association study of thyroid-stimulating hormone highlights new genes, pathways and associations with thyroid disease.

Thyroid hormones play a critical role in regulation of multiple physiological functions and thyroid dysfunction is associated with substantial morbidity. Here, we use electronic health records to undertake a genome-wide association study of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels, with a total sample size of 247,107. We identify 158 novel genetic associations, more than doubling the number of known associations with TSH, and implicate 112 putative causal genes, of which 76 are not previously implicated. A polygenic score for TSH is associated with TSH levels in African, South Asian, East Asian, Middle Eastern and admixed American ancestries, and associated with hypothyroidism and other thyroid disease in South Asians. In Europeans, the TSH polygenic score is associated with thyroid disease, including thyroid cancer and age-of-onset of hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism. We develop pathway-specific genetic risk scores for TSH levels and use these in phenome-wide association studies to identify potential consequences of pathway perturbation. Together, these findings demonstrate the potential utility of genetic associations to inform future therapeutics and risk prediction for thyroid diseases

Clinical implications of novel activating EGFR mutations in malignant peritoneal mesothelioma

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is a paucity of information about the molecular perturbations involved in MPM tumor formation. We previously reported that EGFR-TK mutations in MPM were predictive of achieving optimal surgical cytoreduction, but the status of EGFR pathway activation potential of these mutations was not known. Here we present the mutant EGFR activating potential and the matured survival data of the EGFR mutant(mut+) relative to wild type EGFR(mut-) mesothelioma.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twenty-nine patients were evaluated and their tumors were probed for mutations in the catalytic TK-domain. Twenty-five patients were treated with cytoreductive surgery and complete clinical data was available for comparison of the mut+ and mut- groups. A COS-7 cell expression model was used to determine mutation activating profiles and response to erlotinib.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Functional mutations were found in 31%(9/29) of patients; 7 of these mutations were novel and another was the L858R mutation. All missense mutations were found to be activating mutations and responsive to erlotinib. Of the 25 patients managed surgically, there were 7 mut+ and 18 mut-. Two of 7 (29%) mut+ developed progressive disease and died with a median follow-up time of 22 months; while 13/18 (72%) mut- developed progressive disease and 10/18 (56%) died with median TTP of 12 months and median survival of 14 months.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The novel EGFR mutations identified are activating mutations responsive to erlotinib. The mut+ subset have a 'relative' improved outcome. Erlotinib may have a role in MPM and exploration for mutations in a larger patient cohort is warranted.</p

Observation of a charged charmoniumlike structure in e+e−→(D∗Dˉ∗)±π∓e^+e^- \to (D^{*} \bar{D}^{*})^{\pm} \pi^\mp at s=4.26\sqrt{s}=4.26GeV

We study the process $e^+e^- \to (D^{*} \bar{D}^{*})^{\pm} \pi^\mp$ at a center-of-mass energy of 4.26GeV using a 827pb$^{-1}$ data sample obtained with the BESIII detector at the Beijing Electron Positron Collider. Based on a partial reconstruction technique, the Born cross section is measured to be $(137\pm9\pm15)$pb. We observe a structure near the $(D^{*} \bar{D}^{*})^{\pm}$ threshold in the $\pi^\mp$ recoil mass spectrum, which we denote as the $Z^{\pm}_c(4025)$. The measured mass and width of the structure are $(4026.3\pm2.6\pm3.7)$MeV/c$^2$ and $(24.8\pm5.6\pm7.7)$MeV, respectively. Its production ratio $\frac{\sigma(e^+e^-\to Z^{\pm}_c(4025)\pi^\mp \to (D^{*} \bar{D}^{*})^{\pm} \pi^\mp)}{\sigma(e^+e^-\to (D^{*} \bar{D}^{*})^{\pm} \pi^\mp)}$ is determined to be $0.65\pm0.09\pm0.06$. The first uncertainties are statistical and the second are systematic.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, 1 table; version accepted to be published in PR