Correlated flares in models of a magnetized "canopy"

A model of the Lu-Hamilton kind is applied to the study of critical behavior of the magnetized solar atmosphere. The main novelty is that its driving is done via sources undergoing a diffusion. This mimics the effect of a virtual turbulent substrate forcing the system. The system exhibits power-law statistics not only in the size of the flares, but also in the distribution of the waiting times.Comment: 5 pages + 9 figures, Accepted to Physica

Simulating Flaring Events in Complex Active Regions Driven by Observed Magnetograms

We interpret solar flares as events originating from active regions that have reached the Self Organized Critical state, by using a refined Cellular Automaton model with initial conditions derived from observations. Aims: We investigate whether the system, with its imposed physical elements,reaches a Self Organized Critical state and whether well-known statistical properties of flares, such as scaling laws observed in the distribution functions of characteristic parameters, are reproduced after this state has been reached. Results: Our results show that Self Organized Criticality is indeed reached when applying specific loading and relaxation rules. Power law indices obtained from the distribution functions of the modeled flaring events are in good agreement with observations. Single power laws (peak and total flare energy) as well as power laws with exponential cutoff and double power laws (flare duration) are obtained. The results are also compared with observational X-ray data from GOES satellite for our active-region sample. Conclusions: We conclude that well-known statistical properties of flares are reproduced after the system has reached Self Organized Criticality. A significant enhancement of our refined Cellular Automaton model is that it commences the simulation from observed vector magnetograms, thus facilitating energy calculation in physical units. The model described in this study remains consistent with fundamental physical requirements, and imposes physically meaningful driving and redistribution rules.Comment: 14 pages; 12 figures; 6 tables - A&A, in pres

What influences Chinese fashion retail? Shopping motivations, demographics and spending

What influences Chinese fashion retail? Shopping motivations, demographics and spendin

Distributional Probabilistic Model Checking

Probabilistic model checking can provide formal guarantees on the behavior of stochastic models relating to a wide range of quantitative properties, such as runtime, energy consumption or cost. But decision making is typically with respect to the expected value of these quantities, which can mask important aspects of the full probability distribution such as the possibility of high-risk, low-probability events or multimodalities. We propose a distributional extension of probabilistic model checking, applicable to discrete-time Markov chains (DTMCs) and Markov decision processes (MDPs). We formulate distributional queries, which can reason about a variety of distributional measures, such as variance, value-at-risk or conditional value-at-risk, for the accumulation of reward until a co-safe linear temporal logic formula is satisfied. For DTMCs, we propose a method to compute the full distribution to an arbitrary level of precision, based on a graph analysis and forward analysis of the model. For MDPs, we approximate the optimal policy with respect to expected value or conditional value-at-risk using distributional value iteration. We implement our techniques and investigate their performance and scalability across a range of benchmark models. Experimental results demonstrate that our techniques can be successfully applied to check various distributional properties of large probabilistic models.Comment: 20 pages, 2 pages appendix, 5 figures. Submitted for review. For associated Github repository, see https://github.com/davexparker/prism/tree/ing

MHD consistent cellular automata (CA) models II. Applications to solar flares

In Isliker et al. (2000b), an extended cellular automaton (X-CA) model for solar flares was introduced. In this model, the interpretation of the model's grid-variable is specified, and the magnetic field, the current, and an approximation to the electric field are yielded, all in a way that is consistent with Maxwell's and the MHD equations. Here, we reveal which relevant plasma physical processes are implemented by the X-CA model and in what form, and what global physical set-up is assumed by this model when it is in its natural state (SOC). The basic results are: (1) On large-scales, all variables show characteristic quasi-symmetries. (2) The global magnetic topology forms either (i) closed magnetic field lines, or (ii) an arcade of field lines above the bottom plane line, if the model is slightly modified. (3) In case of the magnetic topology (ii), loading can be interpreted as if there were a plasma which flows predominantly upwards, whereas in case of the magnetic topology (i), as if there were a plasma flow expanding from the neutral line. (4) The small-scale physics in the bursting phase represent localized diffusive processes. (5) The local diffusivity usually has a value which is effectively zero, and it turns locally to an anomalous value if a threshold is exceeded, whereby diffusion dominates the quiet evolution (loading). (6) Flares (avalanches) are accompanied by the appearance of localized, intense electric fields. (7) In a variant on the X-CA model, the magnitude of the current is used directly in the instability criterion. First results indicate that the SOC state persists. (8) The current-dissipation during flares is spatially fragmented into a large number of dissipative current-surfaces of varying sizes, which show a highly dynamic temporal evolution.Comment: 13 pages, 12 figures; in press at Astronomy and Astrophysics (2001

Deterministically Driven Avalanche Models of Solar Flares

We develop and discuss the properties of a new class of lattice-based avalanche models of solar flares. These models are readily amenable to a relatively unambiguous physical interpretation in terms of slow twisting of a coronal loop. They share similarities with other avalanche models, such as the classical stick--slip self-organized critical model of earthquakes, in that they are driven globally by a fully deterministic energy loading process. The model design leads to a systematic deficit of small scale avalanches. In some portions of model space, mid-size and large avalanching behavior is scale-free, being characterized by event size distributions that have the form of power-laws with index values, which, in some parameter regimes, compare favorably to those inferred from solar EUV and X-ray flare data. For models using conservative or near-conservative redistribution rules, a population of large, quasiperiodic avalanches can also appear. Although without direct counterparts in the observational global statistics of flare energy release, this latter behavior may be relevant to recurrent flaring in individual coronal loops. This class of models could provide a basis for the prediction of large solar flares.Comment: 24 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in Solar Physic

Mass Accretion Rate of Rotating Viscous Accretion Flow

The mass accretion rate of transonic spherical accretion flow onto compact objects such as black holes is known as the Bondi accretion rate(Mdot_B), which is determined only by the density and the temperature of gas at the outer boundary. But most work on disc accretion has taken the mass flux to be a given with the relation between that parameter and external conditions left uncertain. Within the framework of a slim alpha disk, we have constructed global solutions of the rotating, viscous hot accretion flow and determined its mass accretion rate as a function of density, temperature, and angular momentum of gas at the outer boundary. We find that the low angular momentum flow resembles the spherical Bondi flow and its mass accretion rate approaches the Bondi accretion rate for the same density and temperature at the outer boundary. The high angular momentum flow on the other hand is the conventional hot accretion disk with advection, but its mass accretion rate can be significantly smaller than the Bondi accretion rate with the same boundary conditions. We also find that when the temperature at the outer boundary is equal to the virial temperature, solutions exist only for 0.05 ~< mdot ~< 1 when alpha=0.01 where mdot==Mdot/Mdot_B. We also find that the dimensionless mass accretion rate is roughly independent of the radius of the outer boundary but inversely proportional to the angular momentum at the outer boundary and proportional to the viscosity parameter, mdot ~= 9.0 alpha/lambda when 0.1 ~< mdot ~< 1, where the dimensionless angular momentum measure lambda == l_out/l_B is the specific angular momentum of gas at the outer boundary l_out in units of l_B == GM/c_{s,out}, and $c_{s,out}$ the isothermal sound speed at the outer boundary.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures, to appear in Ap

Increased apoptosis of immunoreactive host cells and augmented donor leukocyte chimerism, not sustained inhibition of B7 molecule expression are associated with prolonged cardiac allograft survival in mice preconditioned with immature donor dendritic cells plus anti-CD40L mAb

Background. We previously reported the association among donor leukocyte chimerism, apoptosis of presumedly IL-2-deficient graft-infiltrating host cells, and the spontaneous donor-specific tolerance induced by liver but not heart allografts in mice. Survival of the rejection-prone heart allografts in the same strain combination is modestly prolonged by the pretransplant infusion of immature, costimulatory molecule-(CM) deficient donor dendritic cells (DC), an effect that is markedly potentiated by concomitant CM blockade with anti-CD40L (CD154) monoclonal antibody (mAb). We investigated whether the long survival of the heart allografts in the pretreated mice was associated with donor leukocyte chimerism and apoptosis of graft-infiltrating cells, if these end points were similar to those in the spontaneously tolerant liver transplant model, and whether the pretreatment effect was dependent on sustained inhibition of CM expression of the infused immature donor DC. In addition, apoptosis was assessed in the host spleen and lymph nodes, a critical determination not reported in previous studies of either spontaneous or 'treatment-aided' organ tolerance models. Methods. Seven days before transplantation of hearts from B10 (H-2b) donors, 2 x 106 donor- derived immature DC were infused i.v. into C3H (H-2(k)) recipient mice with or without a concomitant i.p. injection of anti-CD40L mAb. Donor cells were detected posttransplantation by immunohistochemical staining for major histocompatibility complex class II (I-Ab) in the cells of recipient lymphoid tissue. CM expression was determined by two-color labeling. Host responses to donor alloantigen were quantified by mixed leukocyte reaction, and cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) assays. Apoptotic death in graft- infiltrating cells and in areas of T-dependent lymphoid tissue was visualized by terminal deoxynucleotidyltransferase-catalyzed dUTP-digoxigenin nick-end labeling and quantitative spectrofluorometry. Interleukin-2 production and localization were estimated by immunohistochemistry. Results. Compared with control heart transplantation or heart transplantation after only DC administration, concomitant pretreatment with immature donor DC and anti- CD40L mAb caused sustained elevation of donor (I-Ab+) cells (microchimerism) in the spleen including T cell areas. More than 80% of the I-Ab+ cells in combined treatment animals also were CD86+, reflecting failure of the mAb to inhibit CD40/CD80/CD86 up-regulation on immature DC in vitro after their interaction with host T cells. Donor-specific CTL activity in graft-infiltrating cells and spleen cell populations of these animals was present on day 8, but decreased strikingly to normal control levels by day 14. The decrease was associated with enhanced apoptosis of graft-infiltrating cells and of cells in the spleen where interleukin-2 production was inhibited. The highest levels of splenic microchimerism were found in mice with long surviving grafts (> 100 days). In contrast, CTL activity was persistently elevated in control heart graft recipients with comparatively low levels of apoptotic activity and high levels of interleukin-2. Conclusion. The donor-specific acceptance of rejection-prone heart allografts by recipients pretreated with immature donor DC and anti-CD40L mAb is not dependent on sustained inhibition of donor DC CM (CD86) expression. Instead, the pretreatment facilitates a tolerogenic cascade similar to that in spontaneously tolerant liver recipients that involves: (1) chimerism-driven immune activation, succeeded by deletion of host immune responder cells by apoptosis in the spleen and allograft that is linked to interleukin-2 deficiency in both locations and (2) persistence of comparatively large numbers of donor-derived leukocytes. These tolerogenic mechanisms are thought to be generic, explaining the tolerance induced by allografts spontaneously, or with the aid of various kinds of immunosuppression

Chromospheric Magnetic Reconnection caused by Photospheric Flux Emergence: Implications for Jet-like Events Formation

Magnetic reconnection in the low atmosphere, e.g. chromosphere, is investigated in various physical environments. Its implications for the origination of explosive events (small--scale jets) are discussed. A 2.5-dimensional resistive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model in Cartesian coordinates is used. It is found that the temperature and velocity of the outflow jets as a result of magnetic reconnection are strongly dependent on the physical environments, e.g. the magnitude of the magnetic field strength and the plasma density. If the magnetic field strength is weak and the density is high, the temperature of the jets is very low (~10,000 K) as well as its velocity (~40 km/s). However, if environments with stronger magnetic field strength (20 G) and smaller density (electron density Ne=2x10^{10} cm^{-3}) are considered, the outflow jets reach higher temperatures of up to 600,000 K and a line-of-sight velocity of up to 130 km/s which is comparable with the observational values of jet-like events.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, submitted to A&